Arkle 2018

[Scooby91]

Couldn't help but be impressed with that from Brain Power, got in a little close at a few but when he met them on a good stride he was awesome. I've added a couple of pts at 12/1 alongside Petite Mouchoir and Footpad. Unless something spectacular comes out of the woodwork thats me done with the Arkle, bar topping up on either of those three.

Thought the Arkle was a dead race this time last month, really starting to heat up now.

That would be the 3 I'd choose for the win at this stage if there were no odds involved and just a list of horses.
Honourable mentions for north hill Harvey/ sceau royal.

 

[Scooby91]

Without a doubt that was a nice performance. But id have to see him going left handed/a trial at Cheltenham before I could consider backing him for the arkle

You may find he's very short in the betting by that time.

 

[Montjeu]

Without a doubt that was a nice performance. But id have to see him going left handed/a trial at Cheltenham before I could consider backing him for the arkle

Yes every chance he could be a flat track bully, I imagine he goes to the Wayward Lad next month back at Kempton so we wont find out any differently any time soon. Probably wins that and shortens again for the Arkle so I'm happy to take the 12s while its there.

 

[Robante]

If he gets too short then i'm happy to be ably represented by Finian's, Footpad and Petit Mouchoir for this race. Fairly big into all three (and you'd reckon at least 2 will take to post for this race) and there comes a point where you're just chipping away at any potential profit by backing horses that you have valid reasons for not fancying. Got to be happy to take a few on the chin - I had a few horses in all 28 races last year (including almost all of the fancied runners), got money back on 20 of them and turned a small profit. I actually think I was unlucky not to have got 23/24 which would have yielded a really decent profit, so that's my aim for this year

 

[Kevloaf]

Last year seemed to be a tough year for most and from what I can gather people whip have a similar approach to you (us) did manage to get out nicely ahead
... I know I'd have been further ahead with a couple of favs not getting beaten too but I think this method of backing multiple mess even when you're wrong you can still get paid out.

This race at the moment looks to be a great example ... albeit expensive to do through the season

 

[billymag]

The left handed record enough to put me off and happy to oppose, already backed a few for the race so cant back them all!!! Good luck if you fancy him.

 

[Scooby91]

David Mullins fell head over heels for Brain Power a long time ago and after Michael Buckley’s gorgeous six-year-old put in a brazen round of jumping on his chase debut at Kempton on Monday, the Grand National-winning jockey had that loving feeling all over again, hailing him the most exciting novice he has ever partnered over fences.

“He danced like Michael Flatley in front of a fence - he’s deadly,” were among his first words to Buckley and trainer Nicky Henderson on his return from a 28-length thrashing of the 140-rated War Sound.

Clever when he needed to be, Brain Power let rip at more than one fence, including the first open ditch which he stood off a mile and cleared it by almost the same distance.

“It was every bit as good as it looked,” added his rider. “He didn't do anything stupid. He used to get a little bit ignorant at his hurdles but he makes a proper shape over a fence.

"He doesn’t get too high and is just perfect. His mind is made up and you just go with it. In a novice chase, it’s definitely the best feel I’ve had and hopefully he can progress into being an Arkle horse.”

Henderson won the same 2m2f novice chase with subsequent Racing Post Arkle hero Altior last season and all roads lead to the same Cheltenham Festival contest for Brain Power, whose Arkle odds now range between 8-1 and 12-1. *

“He’s very good and a huge talent,” said Henderson. “He’s grown up and we let him bowl along today - he will have learned a lot. The Arkle is the ultimate objective and we’ll more than likely go the Altior route.

"He was a genuine Champion Hurdle horse but David said fences are the making of him. He was listening to his rider today.”

 

[KingSprinterSacre]

You may find he's very short in the betting by that time.

I could live with missing out then mate. For now for me theres more evidence against backing him than there is for.

Everyone has different approaches, I know some of the forum like backing to lay, having multiple horses etc it all depends on your favoured approach.
Theres a balance between seeking value and losing value on your strongest selections by backing too many in a race (I think Kev has raised the pro and cons a few times - think there was a thread about it last season).
Also depends on how you approach the festival. I think the festival excites us all anyway but to me some of the thrill is identifying the right horse/s and following them on the day. I don't know if i'd find it as exciting if I had half the field running for me.

 

[archie]

I suppose Brain Power's OR makes him a 'genuine Champion Hurdle horse' or at least a horse entitled to run in the race but he was about 20 lengths down on Footpad and Petit Mouchoir and I'll happily duck him until he's won left-handed over obstacles.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Brain Power isn't for me either due to his poor form left handed and at Cheltenham.

 

[The Beast]

Fair performance from BP , not swayed me either way yet.

 

[Kevloaf]

Thinking out loud.... and thinking just about the Hendo pair.... Brain Power and River Wylde..... despite the negatives around going left handed and Cheltenham..... Brain Power has crushed War Sound today, and River Wylde doesn't have anywhere near as much in hand ..... going left handed he'd need to be loads worse.... and even then, would he still be far too good for River Wylde? I think he probably would, which does put him as an alright punt now before we do get to see him tested left handed over a fence?

If he isn't any good left handed then you'll lose, but double figures (12/1) might be worth the gamble at this stage?

 

[Robante]

If you owned Brain Power then surely you would want to see him at a left handed track next up? Rather than another romp at kempton. If he doesn’t impress then skip the festival and target a decent pot as a fresh horse elsewhere. I know the festival is increasingly the be all and end all but his wins have come at Ascot, Sandown and Kempton, all miles away from what he’ll be experiencing at Cheltenham

 

[archie]

Best RPR left-handed 147, right-handed 162.

 

[Kevloaf]

If you owned Brain Power then surely you would want to see him at a left handed track next up? Rather than another romp at kempton. If he doesn’t impress then skip the festival and target a decent pot as a fresh horse elsewhere. I know the festival is increasingly the be all and end all but his wins have come at Ascot, Sandown and Kempton, all miles away from what he’ll be experiencing at Cheltenham

Yeah I would, and I think they will ..... some horses are (somewhat inexplicably) better one way round..... Yorkhill :highly_amused:

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

If he needs right handed Hendo will take him to Punchestown

 

[Montjeu]

Thinking out loud.... and thinking just about the Hendo pair.... Brain Power and River Wylde..... despite the negatives around going left handed and Cheltenham..... Brain Power has crushed War Sound today, and River Wylde doesn't have anywhere near as much in hand ..... going left handed he'd need to be loads worse.... and even then, would he still be far too good for River Wylde? I think he probably would, which does put him as an alright punt now before we do get to see him tested left handed over a fence?

If he isn't any good left handed then you'll lose, but double figures (12/1) might be worth the gamble at this stage?

I certainly think so Kev, but then again my pts were only spread over two runners prior to today so I have that bit more flexibility.

When he goes and wins the Wayward Lad back at Kempton, he should be well into single figures by then. He showed me enough today to give him the benefit of the doubt when it comes to racing left-handed. With doubts hanging over one of my Arkle horses in Petit Mouchoir, this presented itself as a great opportunity to add some backup for Footpad, who I'm expecting a big performance from at Leopardstown over Christmas and solidify himself as the Arkle banker.

 

[Scooby91]

If you owned Brain Power then surely you would want to see him at a left handed track next up? Rather than another romp at kempton. If he doesn’t impress then skip the festival and target a decent pot as a fresh horse elsewhere. I know the festival is increasingly the be all and end all but his wins have come at Ascot, Sandown and Kempton, all miles away from what he’ll be experiencing at Cheltenham

I doubt it's even entered hendersons mind about going right handed. Time will tell but I genuinely don't see it.

 

[Montjeu]

12/1 gone on Brain Power.

Didn't people say the same about Tea For Two until he won the Aintree Bowl? Does Brain Power really need to go right-handed, or is it just a coincidence that his best performances have come on right-handed tracks? It's not a similar case to Yorkhill who jumps violently to the left, Brain Power jumped straight as an arrow today.

I'd be more worried of his jumping because of the undulations at Cheltenham - particularly the third last on a downhill slope - rather than the track configuration.

 

[Robante]

12/1 gone on Brain Power.

Didn't people say the same about Tea For Two until he won the Aintree Bowl? Does Brain Power really need to go right-handed, or is it just a coincidence that his best performances have come on right-handed tracks? It's not a similar case to Yorkhill who jumps violently to the left, Brain Power jumped straight as an arrow today.

I'd be more worried of his jumping because of the undulations at Cheltenham - particularly the third last on a downhill slope - rather than the track configuration.

Valid points, no hint of jumping to the right. All the named tracks that he’s won on are not only right handed but also pretty flat. In both of his races at Cheltenham he’s actually travelled well early in the race before finding little off the bridle. Maybe the undulations take it out of him. Be lovely if they send him to festival trials day