Glad to hear a few more shouts on
Debece. I do think connections will hope he'll end up an RSA horse but I see this race being ideal and more likely, especially now he has his winner at the track - this horse could be his best chance yet of winning at the festival so I imagine he'll go for the race he is most likely to win. Following Tim Vaughans success at the weekend I have gone in for my first bet in the race at 40/1. Without wanting to offend the trainer, my main worry actually is whether he can attract a top jockey for the ride come March which is so important in the race but everything else I like so at the price is worth taking the chance.
I've also added a second bet in this race tonight with
Elegant Escape at 50/1. I thought he made a more than saticfactory chase debut at Chepstow recently but just lacked the pace of Mia's Storm at the finish. As an ex Point to Pointer he jumped really well. It's also worth noting they started him off at 23.5F suggesting he needs at least 3 miles and has bags of stamina. In Tizzard's RP stable tour last week:
We aimed him quite high last year and he ran a good race in the AB but he was over the top by Aintree. I was very pleased with him on his chasing debut and he does stay very well, so he could be one for the four-miler at the Cheltenham Festival. He'll probably run again at Cheltenham next month and he'll improve from his reappearance.
Jamie Codd rode the horse in his PTP (behind Samcro) and had this to say at the start of last season:
He was second to Colin Bowe's Samcro on debut and has since joined Colin Tizzard, and I think this lad could be really nice.
He was beaten a length on the day and he's a big baby, but he should do very well for Colin all being well..he'd definitely appreciate a big of nicer ground and once he strengthens up, he should make into a nice novice next year, before he could win a bumper. But, I wouldn't be hanging around too long in bumpers as he is a proper jumping horse
Jamie Codd will want to be on the best horse in the race but the fact he did ride the horse in his PTP and had good things to say means there is a chance he may end up linking up if Elegant Escape is one of the main contenders for the race. Although he has often teamed up with Gordon Elliott, he showed last year by choosing AGenieinabottle for Noel Meade that it's not a given. Unlike my concerns with Debece, i'm also confident that Tizzard could persuade one of the top jockeys to get the ride, particularly with his stock being a a career high these last few years. Derek O'Connor famously switched to Minella Rocco but he had initially agreed to ride Native River.
And speaking of Native River - it's worth noting just how similar a path Elegant Escape's career so far has mirrored the Hennessy and Welsh National winner's novice hurdle campaign. Both one a couple of novice hurdles, then stepped markedly up in the Challow Hurdle and Albert Bartlett. (Both disappointed in these 2 races) Like Native River, Elegant Escape started his chasing career off at Chepstow and particularly after Colin Tizzards recent comments it looks likely he could follow NR and line up in the 4 Miler.
Before the Chepstow run Joe Tizzard (before Colin's comments in the RP stable tour) had some good words on him saying he's one of their top novice chasers and that he's summered well and grown into his body:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Joe Tizzard says Elegant Escape is one of their top novice chasers! He runs today in the 2:15 at Chepstow. <a href="https://t.co/zzTxtewZKx">pic.twitter.com/zzTxtewZKx</a></p>— Coral (@Coral) <a href="https://twitter.com/Coral/status/919470415243722752?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 15, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Plenty to like for me and at 50/1 (with William Hill) is well worth getting involved now. He will run again at the November meeting.
I'm half tempted to add
Fagan in at 25's as well as it looks an almost certain target now, and even if Codd wasn't to team up with Elliott again, Lisa O'Neill could very well take up the ride and she proved her talent in big field chases when winning this race with Tiger Roll last year along with 2 Kerry National successes. That said, I cannot really see the price altering too much now so i'm in no rush to get involved there.
Nearer the time I will 100% be adding the horse(s) with the highest OR such as their fantastic record over the last 7 years.
It seems Derek O'Connor has solidified his spot as JP's rider in the festival amateur races over the last few years so that will also be something I look to target but again will wait until things become a little clearer. A couple of early JP horses of interest though - I brought him up in the RSA thread after David Jennings gave him a glowing mention but I actually think
No Comment could be ideal for this race particularly after his two big field second place finishes at Aintree and Punchestown. He's not entered up in the market yet but depending on how his chase debut goes, I may ask to get him added in. Free Expression, Jerrysback and even Sutton Place are others.
My bets in this race so far:
Debece 0.5pts EW 40/1
Elegant Escape 0.5pts EW 50/1
