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Novice Hurdlers 2027

I don’t think that you can infer skerry hill Cheltenham target from running over 2 miles and likely going for royal bond. It’s just the next convenient stepping stone for the early starters. GE has run winners of this race in both supreme and turners
FWIW I backed him 33/1 for turners and 14/1 ar.
I’m going to look at 16/1 for supreme. Got to be better value than some others at head of market at this time
 
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Guinness Village said:
I don’t think that you can infer skerry hill Cheltenham target from running over 2 miles and likely going for royal bond. It’s just the next convenient stepping stone for the early starters. GE has run winners of this race in both supreme and turners
FWIW I backed him 33/1 for turners and 14/1 ar.
I’m going to look at 16/1 for supreme. Got to be better value than some others at head of market at this time
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….20-1 Sup in Hills specials (y)
 
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One thing id say about skerry hill, is gordon is always going to want a runner in the supreme if he can. And given the type of horse he buys, most of his are better suited to further than two miles. So the number he has that could be supreme candidates can be small enough.

So if something like skerry can keep winning at two miles, you might not see him move up in trip this season, as gordon will likely have a bigger group of horses suited to the turners than the supreme.
 
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Gordon doesn't waste any ammo in the Supreme. Unlike Willie he rarely has more than 1 runner in it but his record is very good. Just the 1 winner but they nearly all run very well. Very few outside the top 3/4. If he sends one there then it's a very good one.
 
I'm just not sold on Elliott winning a novice hurdle at the Festival now. Even less so the shorter the trip. Since Envoi Allen won the Ballymore in 2020 he has won the Albert Bartlett once and that's it. His Supreme win was a bit of a fluke and he has had just one horse win at the Festival in each of the last two years. His horses at the Festival last year just wasn't seeing out their races. Whether they were over raced through the year or the fact he was targeting meetings before Cheltenham, or it was just one of those things. I don't know. Currently though, I would really have to think twice about backing an Elliott novice for the Festival.
 
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He mentioned the other day that he's buying horses now which are more speedily bred as that is what is needed to win at the festivals the way the ground has been the last few years, rather than the big , strong 3mile future chasers.
 
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Runragged said:
I'm just not sold on Elliott winning a novice hurdle at the Festival now. Even less so the shorter the trip. Since Envoi Allen won the Ballymore in 2020 he has won the Albert Bartlett once and that's it. His Supreme win was a bit of a fluke and he has had just one horse win at the Festival in each of the last two years. His horses at the Festival last year just wasn't seeing out their races. Whether they were over raced through the year or the fact he was targeting meetings before Cheltenham, or it was just one of those things. I don't know. Currently though, I would really have to think twice about backing an Elliott novice for the Festival.
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Yep, he’s trainer I am very wary of now when it comes to Cheltenham in March.
His record has become poor for such a big yard.
 
Carnage at Taunton said:
Yep, he’s trainer I am very wary of now when it comes to Cheltenham in March.
His record has become poor for such a big yard.
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in the last 10 years when the ground has been Good to Soft or better, he only has a 6% strike rate at Cheltenham.

Read that at the weekend
 
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Yosser said:
in the last 10 years when the ground has been Good to Soft or better, he only has a 6% strike rate at Cheltenham.

Read that at the weekend
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Yep, that's the reason he's having to change the type of horses he brings into the yard. Going to take a while
 
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Skerry hill's a bit of a conundrum for me atm, trainer quotes, saxons diary ,price reaction do point slightly towards 2miles. But he's out of order st george, thorough stayer, i get its early days for this sire but crikey he's an ascot gold cup winner, dams sire is flemensfirth (ballyburn) is is zero for the supreme. Skerrys also a former point to pointer, that weighs towards the turners, although not as much as some might think.
 
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Birds Nest said:
Skerry hill's a bit of a conundrum for me atm, trainer quotes, saxons diary ,price reaction do point slightly towards 2miles. But he's out of order st george, thorough stayer, i get its early days for this sire but crikey he's an ascot gold cup winner, dams sire is flemensfirth (ballyburn) is is zero for the supreme. Skerrys also a former point to pointer, that weighs towards the turners, although not as much as some might think.
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Plus elliott will come out with his normal quote-listen we will enter for both races then make a decision near the time.
 
He's also got With Nolimit who looked very good the other day and Charismatic Kid who they think a lot of. Plenty of juggling to be done.
 
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Birds Nest said:
Skerry hill's a bit of a conundrum for me atm, trainer quotes, saxons diary ,price reaction do point slightly towards 2miles. But he's out of order st george, thorough stayer, i get its early days for this sire but crikey he's an ascot gold cup winner, dams sire is flemensfirth (ballyburn) is is zero for the supreme. Skerrys also a former point to pointer, that weighs towards the turners, although not as much as some might think.
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Elliott has generally tended to saying he is a staying type in the past. In his RP stable tour he said "He won both his bumpers at Down Royal and Ayr, but we've taken our time with him. He could be a real good horse. We'll start him off over two miles at Down Royal. Looking at him, you'd say he's a staying type as he's big and powerful. He looks great."

On breeding the first reaction is as you say that there is a lot of staying blood in the pedigree. His best half sibling, Big Chou (out of a Youmzain mare), won his novice hurdle over 2.5miles. However, the case with Order Of St George as a sire is not so clear cut - his two best NH progeny are Mighty Bandit and Stormin George. The former has a best RPR of 154 achieved over 2m over fences whilst the latter won the G1 Top Novices Hurdle at Aintree over 2m. Stormin George is out of a Presenting mare so on paper you would have expected him to excel over further (and he still might). Next on the list though is Spinningayarn who was 5th in the Albert Bartlett as a novice. So its difficult to be categoric about Skerry Hill at this stage of his career.

I think that he will end up over longer trips as his career progresses but its tough to call for his novice season. I think if he keeps winning at 2m then he stays there but if he gets beat then given his pre season thoughts Elliott will be quick to step him up as he did with Ballyfad last year, another horse that he had down as more of a staying type.
 
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