I know how much everyone loves an RPR on here
so just some musings from me.
The Turners market.
Two horses have achieved a high RPR of 149 this season prior to the festival, No Drama This End & Doctor Steinberg. The ones in behind have some catching up to do.
In market order (ante post top price) they look like the following:
9/2 No Drama This End - Top RPR 149 - Run 3 times this season
11/2 Mighty Park - Top RPR 144 - 1 run
7/1 Skylight Hustle - Top RPR 146 - 3 runs
8/1 Ballyfad - Top RPR 144 - 2 runs (also 2 bumper runs this season)
10/1 Doctor Steinberg - Top RPR 149 - 3 runs
12/1 Act Of Innocence - Top RPR 139 - 3 runs
14/1 King Rasko Grey - Top RPR 143 - 2 runs
16/1 Sortudo - Top RPR 139 - 2 runs
16/1 I'll Sort That - Top RPR 144 - 4 runs
Off the back of looking at these I'd say the market is about right, with the exception of Doctor Steinberg, who is a 10/1 shot ante post, on the basis of him potentially going for the Bartlett. I'll Sort That is probably over priced too, but was on to his 4th run, so how much more improvement is there to come, and could also be Bartlett bound.
Really, if Mighty Park can find 6lbs improvement (and he should) I think he wins the Turners. By now, these horses who have had 3 runs really should be getting 150's+, I know it's only 1lb difference for a couple of them but you have to draw the line somewhere. I can accept a horse with 2 starts not quite getting there, but even the ones with 2 starts they are still a bit behind that.
There will be the argument, for the likes of Skylight Hustle, Ballyfad & King Rasko Grey that a step up in trip could bring about the improvement required, and that is absolutely true, it could, but even going back in recent seasons, Impaire Et Passe posted a 149 on his 2nd start over hurdles for Willie, and that was over 2m, Ballyburn a 157 in the race Ballyfad & King Rasko Grey achieved their highest RPR's this season, before stepping back up in trip for the Turners, even Sir Gerhard, he achieved a 157 on his second ever start over hurdles at the DRF over 2m.
Based on the above, I don't think it's looking a great race for quality, and will not take a serious amount of winning, IMO.
If I had to predict the 1-2-3 at this stage it would probably look like this:
1. Mighty Park (making the assumption he improves the required amount)
2. No Drama This End
3. King Rasko Grey
I've taken other factors in to this decision, that both Doctor Steinberg & I'll Sort That head to the Bartlett, and that King Rasko Grey will be the most likely to improve for a step up in trip, ahead of Ballyfad, who has run 4 times this season (twice in bumpers) and Skylight Hustle who has already had 3 runs and only managed a top RPR of 146 so far.
