2026 Champion Hurdle

[Hurricane fly]

Is that not the issue though ?
He clearly has something in his head that demands he takes off at the wrong time and in NH racing that’s fatal, he got away with it

Would this be linked to being schooled over fences?

 

[Lobos]

I hope that this season they just let him have his head and lead from the off. Let him dominate and jump away from the front and not have to be reigned in and be put off by others sat in a pocket in behind. He has a huge stride and when he's in full flight nothing can touch him.

Are you listening Nicky???????!!!!!!!

 

[Runragged]

For me it depends on what you think it will take to win a Champion Hurdle? Last season Golden Ace won with an adjusted RPR of 161 (7lb allowance) whilst State Man won the year before with 160 so the bar has been pretty low the last couple of years (Though State Man was given an RPR of 166 after falling when looking to have the victory at his mercy last season). Previously you would be looking for something in the low 170s. Con Hill hasn't run in the 170s since his win in the race in 2023 and over the course of the last two seasons he hasn't gone higher than a 162 RPR. Physically and mentally is the horse capable of hitting the highs of 170 RPR again? As a gambling man, I would say no. However, is he capable of better than what we have seen in the last couple of years? Possibly so. Last season he twice ran to a 162 despite a lot going wrong. Sort the jumping out and a clean bill of health and he could well run to a high 160 RPR at the age of 9. Whether that is good enough will remain to be seen. What I will say is of those still in training only State Man (168) and Brighterdaysahead (Adjusted 172) have run to a mark of 165 or higher (The caveat being several have the potential of going higher than have shown so far; last years novices, Lossiemouth, Golden Ace & Anzadam to name a few).

 

[Lobos]

"I'd imagine the Hatton's Grace is the first race for Lossiemouth. She'll tell us after that, but she'd look a hot order for the Mares' Hurdle again."

 

[IstabraqBarRegular]

Hat trick of Mares Hurdles in March
Roll ups starting on her this weekend

 

[Big Bucks]

Im possibly clutching at straws, but its the "if" we pointed her that way in the ATR quote that im maybe trying to interpret as not as clear cut as the above. But maybe I should just let it go, if Stateman is fit i cant see Paul changing his mind, then all sort of domino effects, "if" you believe that front...

Do think she will be entered in both for a long period regardless! Still believe Stateman is value at 7s


We’ll look to get her started in the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle. After that, you’ll all just have to guess which race she’ll go for! I don’t want to get into the hassle we had last season with last-minute changes. She’ll tell us how she is, but she’d look very tough to beat in the Mares’ Hurdle if we pointed her that way.

 

[Eggs]

…looks like Mullins sending Anzadam for Fighting 5th;

‘He looks to have enough potential to be sent down the Champion Hurdle route. We had a few bits of bother with him last season, but so far this season he has been good. He has the ability, he has the engine, just sometimes his training schedule gets interrupted. If we get a clear run at him, we have the Fighting Fifth Hurdle in mind as his starting point. He’s owned by the same connections as State Man, so rather than them both running in the Morgiana, it will make sense to split them up.’

 

[Lobos]

The New One v Constitution Hill v Anzadam

Wowsers!!

Whoever wins will go clear fav for March.

 

[Lobos]

Anzadam 11/4 with PP for FF......5/1 with Hills for those interested.

 

[Lobos]

Hills cut Constitution Hill into 8's from 10's.
B365 are only ones holding out at 10/1 now.

 

[Wayward Lad]

Hills cut Constitution Hill into 8's from 10's.
B365 are only ones holding out at 10/1 now.

B365 know they rarely come back at the same level and the young pretenders normally win out

 

[Lobos]

B365 know they rarely come back at the same level and the young pretenders normally win out

B365 have now also cut him to 8's from 10's.

Lossiemouth pushed out to 8/1 with Coral/Laddies

 

[Wayward Lad]

B365 have now also cut him to 8's from 10's.

Lossiemouth pushed out to 8/1 with Coral/Laddies

Do the ‘Magic Circle’ know something the public do not?

8/1 is way too big on her chance of winning the race , if she ran in it

They therefore firmly believe she will not run in the CH and have cut State Mans price to reflect this (lowest price around)……how can you go 8/1 where others go 7/2 unless you know something?…….its not just a slight drift, that’s a statement!

In a world of Gambling law that states one of the key headlines as ‘open and fair’ how is this right?

 

[Wayward Lad]

As I have bet Lossie for the CH doubled with JDG/Woodhoh for the Mares Hurdle, then on the back of Lads stance re where Lossiemouth will go, then I think the bet now needs to be with the bookmakers holding the price of State Man @ 7/1 doubled with Lossie @ 2/1 for the Mares Chase.

Plans change though during the season and it’s very difficult to sit on my hands and not avail myself of that tasty looking 8/1

 

[Istabraq]

I think the bet now needs to be with the bookmakers holding the price of State Man @ 7/1 doubled with Lossie @ 2/1 for the Mares Chase.

I presume you mean Mares Hurdle.

I think you’re doing the right thing covering the bases here but I wouldn’t get too carries away with market variances.
Many bookies will play around with their prices to lure punters in, Unibet for example will shorten/lengthen the price of a horse a dozen times a day so the blue appears on Oddschecker in the hope the sheep will follow.

What everyone in here will understand is that very few horses at Closutton will have definitive targets in October, much depends on form, performances on the track and the health of others, be prepared to change positions as the season develops would be my advice….

 

[BuckingThe Trend]

My way of thinking on this is that Paul has repeatedly made it clear he is not getting off State Man to ride Lossiemouth in the Champion Hurdle. Coupled with the fact the only 3 times Lossiemouth has been beaten has been over 2 miles. Lossiemouth is as close to a slam dunk as you can get for the Mares Hurdle. Best prices are State Man at 7/1 and Lossiemouth at 8/1. The answer is screaming at me but maybe that's just me

 

[Lobos]

My way of thinking on this is that Paul has repeatedly made it clear he is not getting off State Man to ride Lossiemouth in the Champion Hurdle. Coupled with the fact the only 3 times Lossiemouth has been beaten has been over 2 miles. Lossiemouth is as close to a slam dunk as you can get for the Mares Hurdle. Best prices are State Man at 7/1 and Lossiemouth at 8/1. The answer is screaming at me but maybe that's just me

Willie also commented in his recent Stable Tour that Paul has always said State Man is a far better horse than Lossiemouth. That is some statement and very telling.

 

[Wayward Lad]

I presume you mean Mares Hurdle.

I think you’re doing the right thing covering the bases here but I wouldn’t get too carries away with market variances.
Many bookies will play around with their prices to lure punters in, Unibet for example will shorten/lengthen the price of a horse a dozen times a day so the blue appears on Oddschecker in the hope the sheep will follow.

What everyone in here will understand is that very few horses at Closutton will have definitive targets in October, much depends on form, performances on the track and the health of others, be prepared to change positions as the season develops would be my advice….

Oops yes Mares Hurdle, thanks Ista

I agree re Closutton plans not being definite, as I backed JDG at 28/1 for the Mares Chase on the back of Willies hurdling for 2026 comment at the end of last season

8/1 for Lossie for the CH is just too big and for me indicates intel/knowledge about plans at the moment (which I know can change due to form, other horses plans and even ground)

However me gonna be a ‘sheep’ and avail myself of a little of that 8/1 as it would be rude not to !

 

[Istabraq]

However me gonna be a ‘sheep’ and avail myself of a little of that 8/1 as it would be rude not to !

Sheep keep surviving so no bad thing....

 

[Runragged]

My way of thinking on this is that Paul has repeatedly made it clear he is not getting off State Man to ride Lossiemouth in the Champion Hurdle. Coupled with the fact the only 3 times Lossiemouth has been beaten has been over 2 miles. Lossiemouth is as close to a slam dunk as you can get for the Mares Hurdle. Best prices are State Man at 7/1 and Lossiemouth at 8/1. The answer is screaming at me but maybe that's just me

Just to add to this, her top 3 RPRs (All 156) have come over 2 1/2 miles (Best of 152 at 2m when 2nd to Con Hill at Kempton), twice over the Mares hurdle course and distance. Now that is relative as they were arguably the three strongest races she has run in outside of her juvenile season. However, I am in the State Man camp, if he is fully fit come March then Lossiemouth will be in the Mares Hurdle.