September ‘25 Yankee

[Lobos]

Looks like William Munny will stay over hurdles and be going for the Champion Hurdle. William Munny OR 156 is 25/1. The New Lion OR 159 is 4/1. Make that make sense. Must be worth an EW punt surely.

60 return for a place WM 10ew. 100 return for 20 win TNL. Make that make sense.

 

[BuckingThe Trend]

£320 return for WM win £10 EW. £520 return for WM win £20. 156 v 159 and 21pts difference. You confident TNL is better than WM over 2 miles.

 

[Lobos]

£320 return for WM win £10 EW. £520 return for WM win £20. 156 v 159 and 21pts difference. You confident TNL is better than WM over 2 miles.

No, but just going by how they are priced up ATM.

I always go by the theory of if someone gave me a free 1000 win bet on one of the two now for the race and I'd go for TNL. Would you ??

It's a good way of convincing yourself to or not to place a bet......IMO.

 

[The Giant Bolster]

Not one for the Yankee but the way I have covered this at the moment is through a related form double of William Munny (CH) / Kopek des Bordes (A) at 181-1. If you like William Munny for the Champion Hurdle then you have to think the Supreme form is very strong. Obviously Kopek des Bordes also needs to be confirmed chasing.

I don't like William Munny enough to back him for the Champion Hurdle yet so this is my cover for now.

 

[SeanRock]

I’d happily suggest a very early flyer in the spud race.

Theflyingking at 50/1 with PP seems good value

His second at Down Royal reads well now with the 3rd Strong Link winning three on the bounce afterwards. The winner that day Kilwaughter finished a very respectable 6th in the good Aintree bumper before a solid 3rd behind El Cairos at Punchestown.

I’ll Sort That franked the form of his Fairyhouse 2nd in very good fashion today. A further three winners have come from that race.

He broke his duck at Wexford beating the Thedeviluno (who subsequently went on to finish second behind Doctor Du Mesnil at Cork) and then second to Strong Link at Wexford again in May.

He was very raw/green in his races last season, tending to hang left at the business end of races which went against him at Down Royal & Fairyhouse.

As a PTP winner he’s built & bred for a trip & obstacles being a Jukebox Jury out of a Flemensfirth mare. I can see him coming on plenty going forward.

 

[Lobos]

Getting the itch again after a well needed spell out.......


current likes are....

Majborough .....Champion Chase
Fact To File.... Ryanair
Lossiemouth.... Mares
This year's NHC winner ....GC
Bambino.....MNH
JDV.....Stayers
D Paddy....BANC


and


Cant believe I'm saying this...

Constitution Hill.....CH

 

[Yosser]

Getting the itch again after a well needed spell out.......


current likes are....

Majborough .....Champion Chase
Fact To File.... Ryanair
Lossiemouth.... Mares
This year's NHC winner ....GC
Bambino.....MNH
JDV.....Stayers
D Paddy....BANC


and


Cant believe I'm saying this...

Constitution Hill.....CH

Can't argue with many of them and all bar one are in the books, the one being Gerri Colombe. I'm fairly confident Lossiemouth will go Mares again. I'm just going to be doubling her up with the obvious ones in the obvious races for now

 

[BuckingThe Trend]

I don't think Lobos is selecting/suggesting Gerri Colombe. I think he is selecting Haiti Coleurs for the Gold Cup after winning the NH Chase this year. That's how I read it. I might be wrong.

​

 

[Yosser]

I don't think Lobos is selecting/suggesting Gerri Colombe. I think he is selecting Haiti Coleurs for the Gold Cup after winning the NH Chase this year. That's how I read it. I might be wrong.

​

ohhhhhh yes. Don't know why i even thought that. He is hardly a novice

Regardless, i have definitely not got Haiti, not even on the radar

 

[Guinness Village]

Not got Haiti?
Like not having chlamydia

 

[Yosser]

Not got Haiti?
Like not having chlamydia

Couldn't envisage a scenario where he could get close to a Gold Cup. I think Corach Rambler was a special case, he had the pace to keep up with the field and the stamina to ay least try to stay on past beaten horses. I like Haiti Coleurs as a horse but not in that discipline. A Grand National, absolutely, a Gold Cup? Pulled up after 6 or 7 fences. But Lobos won't be moved by my words he was in the mental asylum with me last year thinking Majborough would go to the BANC and fair play to him, stuck his wedge down early on Brighterdaysahead in the Champion Hurdle.

 

[knockando]

Some good shouts and discussion on here for me to choose from… cheers to all who’ve given me some food for thought.

Final day for any other shouts tomorrow - I’ll be posting on the 1st

 

[Kautostar]

Il keep banging the drum for Gaelic warrior in the gold cup. Ticks a lot boxes and is a decent price.
Saxon warrior made a good case for bud fox in the supreme 33/1 chance.

 

[Eggs]

….with selections being announced tomorrow, worth noting that Betfair have their ‘bet £5 multiples, get £5’ offer this week, can get a free hit at covering £5 of your bet.

So @RufusFlynn are you still ok to Captain the October bet?

 

[RufusFlynn]

….with selections being announced tomorrow, worth noting that Betfair have their ‘bet £5 multiples, get £5’ offer this week, can get a free hit at covering £5 of your bet.

So @RufusFlynn are you still ok to Captain the October bet?

Yes mate. Plenty of discussion starting up this month and hopefully we got some snippets from when people receive their OJA copies!

Looking forward to seeing @knockando 's September selections.

 

[Eggs]

….i’ll open the October thread once @knockando posts his September selections.

Always looking for ‘captains’ to run monthly wagers, @RufusFlynn has volunteered for October but let’s know if anybody is happy to do November. I expect there’ll be lots to go on with the season getting underway and stable tours starting

 

[somer1]

….i’ll open the October thread once @knockando posts his September selections.

Always looking for ‘captains’ to run monthly wagers, @RufusFlynn has volunteered for October but let’s know if anybody is happy to do November. I expect there’ll be lots to go on with the season getting underway and stable tours starting

Happy to have a go at Novembers if no one comes forward @Eggs

 

[Eggs]

Happy to have a go at Novembers if no one comes forward @Eggs

….brill, thanks Matey. November captain is @somer1

 

[knockando]

Horse	Race	Race
Sortudo	Supreme
Big Westerner	BANC
Kadastral	Supreme	Turners
Mydaddypaddy	Supreme	Turners
Brighterdaysahead
Woodhoh	Mares Hurdle
Jukebox Man	Ryanair
Anzadam	Champion Hurdle
Derryhassen Paddy	BANC
Rockys Diamond	BANC?
The Yellow Clay	Stayers	Pertemps
Kalif du Berlais	CC
Jimmy du Seuil	BANC
Place de La Nation	Mares Hurdle
Hipop de Loire	Bartlett
Manlaga	Triumph
William Munny	Champion Hurdle
Theflyingking	Bartlett
Constitution Hill	Champion Hurdle
Gaelic Warrior	Gold Cup

Alright. Here we go. I have been keeping a tracker

Thought would be handy to take stock of where we are with the previous yankees to see, firstly, any horses where we've got multiple selections and secondly, any major gaps in races (or known targets)

Supreme: Doctor Du Mesnil
Arkle: William Munny, Kopek x 3, Lulamba
Ultima:
CH: New Lion x 2, State Man
Mares hurdle:
Fred Winter:
NHC:

Turners Hurdle: Doctor Du Mesnil
BANC: Kitzbuhel, Derryhassen Paddy, Wendigo, Final Demand x 2
Coral Cup:
X Country:
Champion Chase: Marine Nationale
Grand Annual:
Bumper:

Mares novice hurdle:
Golden Miller / Novices chase:
Pertemps:
Ryanair: Fact to File
Stayers: Teahupoo, Jasmin de Vaux, Ballyburn
Plate:
Kim Muir

Triumph:
County hurdle:
Mares chase: Spindleberry
Albert Bartlett:
Gold Cup: Inothewayurthinkin, Lecky Watson
Hunters:
Martin Pipe:

Thoughts:

- I personally am heavily leveraged in Doctor Du Mesnil across both supreme and turners given it was an early momentum forum horse.
- We are covered heavily with Kopek in the Arkle (in 3 yankees now) so ruling that out, we have Final Demand and The New Lion covered twice for BANC and CH respectively.
- I do like State Man (which we already have covered) - 8/1 still stands out as ridiculous value and argument well covered by @Saxon Warrior in his early posts
- Surprised in a way that Fact to File only been picked once - admittedly very short at this stage but feels like this could be a wheelbarrow job for some on here (mixed in with some other good debate to be fair)
- I am hoping that Mark Howard's book might arrive towards the end of this month for a few selections, often some of the Ricci quotes and confirmed targets are gold dust early on to include...but we're not there yet so...

Two to throw in:

Brighterdaysahead 5/1 (Hills) - Mares Chase. I am aware that it's a short enough price, but she is going chasing per Elliott's quotes. Clearly her record at the Fez is a concern........but I still....to this day...wake up screaming thinking about Kennedy's ride back in 2024. They will clearly go for the easiest race for her to win at the Fez, so I can't see them going down the BANC route.

Mydaddypaddy 40/1 Turners hurdle - I saw this on twitter and reading through some of the stable tours from earlier in the year, the Skeltons bigging this one up, and quotes on x suggest that it could be their 'The New Lion'. Big risk based on one run at Huntingdon, but 40s big enough to consider...

Alright. Here we go. I have been keeping a tracker of the selections (and nominated races) as below...

Horse	Race	Race
Sortudo	Supreme
Big Westerner	BANC
Kadastral	Supreme	Turners
Mydaddypaddy	Supreme	Turners
Brighterdaysahead
Woodhoh	Mares Hurdle
Jukebox Man	Ryanair
Anzadam	Champion Hurdle
Derryhassen Paddy	BANC
Rockys Diamond	BANC?
The Yellow Clay	Stayers	Pertemps
Kalif du Berlais	CC
Jimmy du Seuil	BANC
Place de La Nation	Mares Hurdle
Hipop de Loire	Bartlett
Manlaga	Triumph
William Munny	Champion Hurdle
Theflyingking	Bartlett
Constitution Hill	Champion Hurdle
Gaelic Warrior	Gold Cup

All in....20 selections were put forward in the month, with 3 of the selections covering two races. I was looking back to the above post of what we had covered already...and so thought to jot down some whittering thoughts before I land on the selection.....some of you may want to just scroll down to the bottom and I wouldn't blame you, but wanted to spell out my thought process:

The easiest decision was to write off Brighterdaysahead - this was just a hard no from the masses. Fair enough. Move on.

I wrote off Constitution Hill and Anzadam, the former because.... I'm just not emotionally willing to stake anything on him at this point, much as we'd all fecking love to see him do it again. Anzadam - coming back from injury, just a bit too much doubt there for me.

Other notables - I initially got excited by the Manlaga shout for the Triumph...but the price is short this far out, and tbh it feels like the Triumph shouts will come in October with the arrival of OJA and other literature....but also acknowledging last year's antepost strategies were completely redundant and so that was in the back of my mind to steer away from it as a race.

There was a huge wave of momentum for Jimmy du Seuil - felt like I couldn't not pick him - leg #1 done and dusted. Nice one @ComplyOrDie . That therefore superseded Derryhassen and Rocky's Diamond.

Leg #2 - I really liked the shout of Kalif du Berlais... from @BuckingThe Trend . The Champion Chase always cuts up as a race, so if we get a run - will be much shorter on the day. Good price and open to loads of improvement. Solid shout.

Then came the novice hurdlers which is where I spent most time deliberating.......and I know there's a bit of a risk (always is) in choosing the right race. I initially put up Mydaddypaddy for Turners, but am going to opt for him in the Supreme and hope I've done the right thing. Either way, there's sufficient backing in this forum thread behind him as a horse - and the markets suggest (as it stands) - he's bound for the opener. I think he's solid value and clearly well liked. Leg #3 done. Just hope I've opted right and he puts up a good fight against the WPM jolly in the first, whatever that will be on the day.

I didn't want to do that with two novice hurdlers, i.e. selecting a leg and then having the switcheroo on targets. I therefore came down with Gaelic Warrior for the Gold Cup again for Leg #4. I am aware it's not a guaranteed route / target - but on balance think there's a lively enough chance he will go here, more so than the hurdlers anyway. He's undervalued in the market, and there's enough reasons to back him (can Inothewayurthinking recover this year and do it again, and GDC...he's not getting any younger, despite all of his brilliance).

So...my yankee...

Jimmy du Seuil - BANC
Kalif du Berlais - Champion Chase
Mydaddypaddy - Supreme
Gaelic Warrior - Gold Cup

225,419/1 with 365

Let's be having you. WHERE ARE YOU?!

 

[knockando]

Small follow on post......the above are the final selections and are not being changed.

Full disclosure though, to be on the safe side personally, I have covered the same yankee with MDP in the Turners for much smaller stakes. I couldn't live with myself if that eventuality did happen.