Johnny Henderson GRAND ANNUAL Challenge Cup Handicap Chase

[Lobos]

GE just said Touch Me Not probably goes to the Arkle at the Imperial Racing Preview evening.

Beautiful ......

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Pulled the trigger on Mike at 16s. Fuck the haters.

The unexposed ones seem to be falling away, and he's already slightly drifted from last week, as I said he would. But I'm not so convinced he'll be bigger on the day anymore with this field :biggrin-new:

Welcome to the club :victorious:

 

[Joeski29]

Evan Williams confirms Libberty Hunter going for the champion chase

 

[ComplyOrDie]

A horse in here whose form on ground with 'Good' in the description reads 2-1-3-2-2-4-4-1-2-3. That's a solid level of consistency, and that horse is Dancing On My Own.

He run in this race back in 2022, but that was appalling ground, it read heavy and it was an absolute bog. He definitely wouldn't have liked that. He went and ran a solid race next time out, finishing 2nd at Aintree on much better ground. He seemed to turn a corner in 2023, he missed the Cheltenham festival but went and won at the Aintree festival in the same race he finished 2nd in the previous year, he then followed up at Cheltenham in the October winning off a big weight, rated 151, the same as what he's running off of this year in the Grand Annual. His form then went off the boil as the weather deteriorated, which is no shock really. He's come back this season with form figures of 2-1-3 and hasn't been seen since October, when finishing 3rd at Cheltenham off 153, so he's going into this race very fresh. He's also been dropped 2lbs for that run in October. It may be a case of this being a pipe opener for Aintree, as he does love it there, but I do think he can run a blinder, with the ground very much looking like being in his favour this festival.

He is 11, but we've had double figure aged horses win this in the past, so this would not be of great concern for me.

JPR One running also means he also doesn't have to burden top weight, which is something I initially thought he might have to carry.

His form figures at Cheltenham read PU-6-10-1-3 but don't let that put you off. The PU & 6th were over 2m5f, a trip too far for him and over hurdles, he's shown he's a 2 mile chaser, and the 10th was when he run in the Grand Annual in an absolute bog where many didn't even get home! The 1st and the 3rd, were no surprise, on ground with 'Good' in the description and over 2m.

Rachael will be taking the ride, and he's a 20/1 poke, which I feel is a fair E/W price.

 

[AaronLad]

As per my coral cup post I've done the same with the grand annual.

12 of the last 15 aged 7,8,9.
This takes out 5 leaving 15.

Last 14 rated between 136 and 152.
Quite a strong trend here, that takes out 7 leaving 8.

10 from the last 12 no more than 4 chase runs that season takes out another 2 leaving 6.

Only one conditional winnner this century, this takes out king of prs leaving 5.

Only 2 Since 2004 had won a handicap chase that season, another 1 bites the dust, 4 left.

16 of the last 20 has run a a previous festival, this takes out traprain law leaving 3 .

Only 3 winners this century had won a chase over 2m3f, this trend leaves American Mike out of the equation.

That leaves 2. My mate mozzie and so scottish.
They've both got a bit of headgear on which only 4 from the last 26 have managed, but Mozzies is a tongue tie which he's worn now for 6 of his last 8 runs. So scottish is wearing cheekpieces which he is used to running in.

I'll back both.

My mate mozzie 7/1
So scottish 12/1

 

[Jrow]

So Scottish not ran over fences this year, similar to Global Citizen the year he won it. Ben Pauling said that year that GC was too well handicapped over fences he didnt want to ruin his mark, I wonder of Emmet fells the same about SS. The only doubt here is that Mark Walsh is sitting this one out

 

[DenmanSacre]

I do think this race is pretty poor.

Handicap chases yesterday won by those prominent/led. Last 4 winners of the Grand Annual:

Unexpected Party - tracked leaders, led 4 out.
Maskada - held up (had bundles in hand, winning by 6.5 lengths to a graded mare in Dinoblue)
Global Citizen - led
Sky Pirate - chased leaders

I'd only be interested in those racing near the front. Western Zephyr will likely lead but I'm not convinced by him.

Nells Son - not particularly well handicapped. Will be near the front. 8th in a Coral Cup but he's a 2 miler. Record on undulated courses 1146F81211. Solid each way chance.

Primoz - Lucinda with a win yesterday and I prefer him to Traprain Law. Visited Cheltenham earlier in the season but over too far. Will be up near the front. He's better than a 130 horse. Getting found in the market now though.


Jasko Des Dames would be interesting if Henrys form was better. I'll see how his others run before this.

Midnight It Is I think will be Gavin's best runner so hopefully he keeps drifting.

 

[AaronLad]

So Scottish not ran over fences this year, similar to Global Citizen the year he won it. Ben Pauling said that year that GC was too well handicapped over fences he didnt want to ruin his mark, I wonder of Emmet fells the same about SS. The only doubt here is that Mark Walsh is sitting this one out

Ahh it wasn't just Ben pauling that said that Jrow :applouse:
Although I had gone huge for the county and just covered the annual at 50/1 on the entries.

I hope you're right about so scottish today.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I do think this race is pretty poor.

Handicap chases yesterday won by those prominent/led. Last 4 winners of the Grand Annual:

Unexpected Party - tracked leaders, led 4 out.
Maskada - held up (had bundles in hand, winning by 6.5 lengths to a graded mare in Dinoblue)
Global Citizen - led
Sky Pirate - chased leaders

I'd only be interested in those racing near the front. Western Zephyr will likely lead but I'm not convinced by him.

Nells Son - not particularly well handicapped. Will be near the front. 8th in a Coral Cup but he's a 2 miler. Record on undulated courses 1146F81211. Solid each way chance.

Primoz - Lucinda with a win yesterday and I prefer him to Traprain Law. Visited Cheltenham earlier in the season but over too far. Will be up near the front. He's better than a 130 horse. Getting found in the market now though.


Jasko Des Dames would be interesting if Henrys form was better. I'll see how his others run before this.

Midnight It Is I think will be Gavin's best runner so hopefully he keeps drifting.

Dancing On My Own is one that should be up there too, albeit it's Henry again, so him being out of form is not ideal.

 

[DenmanSacre]

Dancing On My Own is one that should be up there too, albeit it's Henry again, so him being out of form is not ideal.

Yeah left him off with Henrys form and Jasko looks well weighted. Gonna be an early in running play for me outside Nells Son and Primoz if they aren't both up there.