Johnny Henderson GRAND ANNUAL Challenge Cup Handicap Chase

[ComplyOrDie]

Seeing as we're doing the trends updates... I landed on American Mike here. Which would've seemed ridiculous to me a few months ago. And then I was surprised at how short his price was now :beguiled:

Yeah, backed him the other day, based on some trends. I too was surprised, especially as he is by Mahler, to find myself backing him for this race!

 

[Benjy23]

Yeah, backed him the other day, based on some trends. I too was surprised, especially as he is by Mahler, to find myself backing him for this race!

The old BANC to Grand Annual route :topsy_turvy:

I've not bothered to yet but I'll be backing him nearer the time.

 

[Eggs]

…one from left field, but I actually like Martator for this.

Dropped from as high as a recent 151, 147 is still higher than he’s carried to victory before but he’s won with a claimer and I wonder if Venetia has it in mind for this contest. Looks nicely in on trends, the trainer knows how to ready one for a festival handicap.

i was a little concerned a few days ago as it appeared he had an entry away from the Festival but from what I can see, this now looks his only one. 40-1 NRNB with Hills looks big, hopefully he turns up.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

…one from left field, but I actually like Martator for this.

Dropped from as high as a recent 151, 147 is still higher than he’s carried to victory before but he’s won with a claimer and I wonder if Venetia has it in mind for this contest. Looks nicely in on trends, the trainer knows how to ready one for a festival handicap.

i was a little concerned a few days ago as it appeared he had an entry away from the Festival but from what I can see, this now looks his only one. 40-1 NRNB with Hills looks big, hopefully he turns up.

Mentioned him as being under the radar back in 2023 - https://www.fatjockey.com/forum/fat.../428617-2024-novice-chasers/page37#post432718

Rated 124 when I mentioned, had a typical first season under Venetia (of those that come from France), a lot of placed efforts, ended up going down to a mark of 117 before going off on a run of 5 wins in a row.

If the ground is good I think he'd run a nice race. I'll have to back him at 40's out of FOMO and because I was so keen on him last season. Might take some 33's too with 5 places on offer.

 

[Lobos]

Edwardstone misses Fez so weights will go up.

 

[Kevloaf]

Seeing as we're doing the trends updates... I landed on American Mike here. Which would've seemed ridiculous to me a few months ago. And then I was surprised at how short his price was now :beguiled:

He's just a horse than you know will win a big one and you can't back at single figures

If he wins, so-be-it, but come onnnnn


I'm just bitter cos I really liked him and thought I was being clever and then saw the price and thought oh fuck offfff

 

[Hurricane fly]

American Mike is a bit of a cliff horse over 3m for me, but I don't think he's a good enough jumper to win a real prize at 2m.

Hopeful this helps push Firefox to the Arkle though

 

[Kevloaf]

American Mike is a bit of a cliff horse over 3m for me, but I don't think he's a good enough jumper to win a real prize at 2m.

Hopeful this helps push Firefox to the Arkle though

I think Firefox is Arkle or step up to Jack Richards isn't he?

If the RJ was still the 'JLT' he'd almost certainly have been in that?

 

[Benjy23]

He's just a horse than you know will win a big one and you can't back at single figures

If he wins, so-be-it, but come onnnnn


I'm just bitter cos I really liked him and thought I was being clever and then saw the price and thought oh fuck offfff

Aye, similar feelings :biggrin-new:. I'm fairly hopeful of double figures and loads of places on the day. Then I'll be getting involved.

​​​​They seemed pretty set on the novice handicap for Firefox I thought.

 

[Birds Nest]

I think Firefox is Arkle or step up to Jack Richards isn't he?

If the RJ was still the 'JLT' he'd almost certainly have been in that?

I would think the exchanges have him stepping up too, Better ground ,up in trip ,the jr 's sounds like a plan.

 

[Kevloaf]

American Mike
Firefox
Handicap double would annoy the heck out of me, so I might back that as a somewhat related double :cheerful:

 

[darlojim]

American Mike
Firefox
Handicap double would annoy the heck out of me, so I might back that as a somewhat related double :cheerful:

I get Firefox, but American Mike is just a dog isn't he?

Wildly overrated throughout his career, always well backed and always flatters to deceive. Doesn't look a horse that had been hiding his ability either?

 

[Benjy23]

Do you believe all of the handicaps are going to be won by horses that have been 'hiding their ability'?
I

 

[darlojim]

Do you believe all of the handicaps are going to be won by horses that have been 'hiding their ability'?
I

Not all of them no, but to win a hcap at the festival, you need to have lbs in hand, I'd say thats obvious?

And I don't think American Mike has that off 148.

 

[Benjy23]

Not all of them no, but to win a hcap at the festival, you need to have lbs in hand, I'd say thats obvious?

And I don't think American Mike has that off 148.

Aye, to win a handicap you need lbs in hand as the pure intention of a handicap.

I just think if you looked at past winners of handicaps at the festival, including this race, ones 'hiding' wouldn't be a necessity and is something that we can blindly focus on... And just assume those with shite form from the usual suspect have been 'hiding'.

He's got bits and pieces of form that could have him better than 148 to be honest, and 2lb Irish tax is better than some.

I choose to believe this race will be perfect and he's been a 2 miler all along. But I only came to that conclusion yesterday by chance :beguiled:

 

[Quevega]

Aye, to win a handicap you need lbs in hand as the pure intention of a handicap.

I just think if you looked at past winners of handicaps at the festival, including this race, ones 'hiding' wouldn't be a necessity and is something that we can blindly focus on... And just assume those with shite form from the usual suspect have been 'hiding'.

He's got bits and pieces of form that could have him better than 148 to be honest, and 2lb Irish tax is better than some.

I choose to believe this race will be perfect and he's been a 2 miler all along. But I only came to that conclusion yesterday by chance :beguiled:

:highly_amused: I'm absolutely loving your approach to things these days.

Like a modern human who has been brought up on social media but actually has some self awareness and humility.:encouragement::applause:

"I choose Life" & "I choose Freedom", have been usurped with "I Choose to Believe".

 

[Kevloaf]

I get Firefox, but American Mike is just a dog isn't he?

Wildly overrated throughout his career, always well backed and always flatters to deceive. Doesn't look a horse that had been hiding his ability either?

A bit, but every dog has his day

:dog:

 

[Middle_Of_March]

JPR One & My Mate Mozzie for me.

Don’t think there’s any obvious plot that’ll be good enough to win. And I think the lightning fast gallop they go in this year after year will play into the hands of both of these. Both double figures. That will do me.

 

[Magpie]

JPR One & My Mate Mozzie for me.

Don’t think there’s any obvious plot that’ll be good enough to win. And I think the lightning fast gallop they go in this year after year will play into the hands of both of these. Both double figures. That will do me.

That’s the two I’m on, so hope you are right. Sweeter on MMM, think he’s got a bit of class about him in this field.

 

[Middle_Of_March]

That’s the two I’m on, so hope you are right. Sweeter on MMM, think he’s got a bit of class about him in this field.

He’s one of those quirky horses that seems to relish the opportunity to come off the pace and enjoy passing horses. A bit like One For Arthur used to. A typical fast paced grand annual should suit him