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FJ Day Four Festival Yankee - manager ryan97

Kevloaf said:
CP is out this weekend, against Evening Hush. So we should know a heck of a lot more on a line through her on both CP and DDS's relative merits, targets and chances.

The way CP is being talked up, you'd want to see him win on the bridle, by an impressive distance.

CoD is right though, that until you've seen a horse do well when asked for pressure, or off the bridle, you'd need to have some caution. I saw Alan King saying the exact same thing about Yanworth and how he'd much prefer a horse to have been in a battle than not!


That said, I want CP to win on the bridle, and produce a monster performance in the Supreme, and I was DDS to be far too good for any of the Irish juv's.... but they are priced up on the dream, not the reality of their respective chances?
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I think CP will do the job this weekend. But even if not I'd be happy.

If he hacks up it'll be onto the Supreme and I think he'd have a huge chance with 4yo allowance. If he just wins unimpressively it'll be more up in the air but price will drift for both and so will be an easier price to back in both races giving the opportunity for me to cover CP against DDS.

If he loses, then without a valid excuse...would enhance DDS claims maybe
 
He’s ran away with me for at least two-six and for a horse to be getting free with you five (fences) out in that ground is not normal. To win off such a high weight, he must have a serious engine.”

David mullins on champagne west.
 
Early selections:

Triumph - Bapaume
Foxhunters - On the Fringe
A.Bartlett - Wholestone
G.Cup - Cue Card
 
I might be very inclined to put a pick for the County in this, try and boost the odds right up.
 
You got 3 big field handicaps ryan if that's what you're looking for, County, M Pipe and Grand Annual, none of those will be shorter than 5/1 the field.
When weights are out on Wednesday I'm sure people will start to have views on these...
 
I think DDS is highly likely to be the first pick, the other 3 spots are up for grabs...
 
See what comes from the discussion, I'm all over DDS but someone may put a compelling argument against him/for another, preview evening season about to kick in and there might be one or two talking horses that come to light...
 
Indeed, my mind is very up for turning ;)
 
The weights are out guys and girls, get discussing, we've got 4 winners to find!
 
An interesting stat is that the last 30 handicap favourites have all been beaten at the Cheltenham Festival. On that note there is always good value if you can find that elusive winner of the H'caps. Now the weights are out I have been looking at the County Hurdle this evening. The Fav is the Dan Skelton trained North Hill Harvey. However, he has been allocated 11.3. The one that caught my eye is the other Skelton horse Bertimont. He has an OR of 139 but 12 months ago he was rated 149 and ran in the Champion Hurdle. The County is his only entry. He ran twice last month, finishing a good 2nd on both occasions. He needs to make the cut (No 39) but at 33/1 Stan J & NRNB I have had a small E/W wager. Might be one to consider for the Yankee.
 
johnjo said:
An interesting stat is that the last 30 handicap favourites have all been beaten at the Cheltenham Festival. On that note there is always good value if you can find that elusive winner of the H'caps. Now the weights are out I have been looking at the County Hurdle this evening. The Fav is the Dan Skelton trained North Hill Harvey. However, he has been allocated 11.3. The one that caught my eye is the other Skelton horse Bertimont. He has an OR of 139 but 12 months ago he was rated 149 and ran in the Champion Hurdle. The County is his only entry. He ran twice last month, finishing a good 2nd on both occasions. He needs to make the cut (No 39) but at 33/1 Stan J & NRNB I have had a small E/W wager. Might be one to consider for the Yankee.
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Reckon he'll make the cut?
 
County - entry number 56 got a run last year. This year entry no 56 is rated 135 (3lb lower than last year). I think he might yes.
 
He'll be one to consider if he gets in. A few people on here with fancies in the County (G. Elliot likes Tombstone's mark a lot but the owners want the CH). I like Hargam myself
 
johnjo said:
An interesting stat is that the last 30 handicap favourites have all been beaten at the Cheltenham Festival. On that note there is always good value if you can find that elusive winner of the H'caps. Now the weights are out I have been looking at the County Hurdle this evening. The Fav is the Dan Skelton trained North Hill Harvey. However, he has been allocated 11.3. The one that caught my eye is the other Skelton horse Bertimont. He has an OR of 139 but 12 months ago he was rated 149 and ran in the Champion Hurdle. The County is his only entry. He ran twice last month, finishing a good 2nd on both occasions. He needs to make the cut (No 39) but at 33/1 Stan J & NRNB I have had a small E/W wager. Might be one to consider for the Yankee.
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In 2015 Skelton had 4 runners in the handicaps:

Ultima : What a Warrior 33/1 - 15th
Fred Winter : Zarib 8/1 - 6th
Martin Pipe : Shelford 25/1 - 5th
Grand Annual : Bellenos 16/1 - 13th

Last year he had a couple more runners and a better success rate with a win and 2 places from 6 runners:

Novice Chase : Willow Saviour 10/1 - 15th
Coral Cup : Long House Hall 16/1 - 2nd
Fred Winter : Kasakh Noir 14/1 - 6th
County : Superb Story 8/1 - 1st
Martin Pipe : Work in Progress 25/1 - 8th
Grand Annual : Savello 25/1 - 4th

Small sample size but not a bad strike rate last year (1pt ew level stake on all 6 would have got you 12.25pt profit) and I get the feeling he may just be starting to get the hang of getting them right for a handicap at the festival, much like Nichols has done over recent years. Has obvious claims with the fav NNH like you say but I think all his runners are worth at least a glancing look over this year again.
 
Only a few days left before these need to finalised fellas....
 
Peace & Co, County ?
Being talked up a fair bit...
 
Im up for that. Ive backed Hargam but im happy to cover Peace and Co as long a nobody else argues a good case
 
What horses do we have on the shortlist so far?
 
A few of the obvious ones. DDS, Death Duty, OTF. A range lf shouts in the County. The storyteller was put up and not had many shouts for the Grand Annual
 
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