2025 Mares Hurdle

[Burrough Hill Man]

20/1 for KALA KONTI looks a cracking ew bet to me.
Yes she's got a bit to find with some but those juveniles from last season were of a very high standard and can see her going well.
Could have also went handicapping but decided on here

 

[FinalFurlong91]

There was an interesting bit on RTC the other day

something like last 10 years 110 horses went to Cheltenham on the back of a fall

3 won (2 were black hercules and nichols canyon)

But the interesting thing was that the expected number of winners taking into account the prices they went off was 8

I'd imagine lossie will be the shortest of them all

I'm lucky enough to have a 12.5/1 related double of con hill to win the Xmas hurdle with lossie here but im definitely not counting my chickens on her

 

[Bumble]

Golden Ace declared for Champion.

 

[Quevega]

Lot of people slating the Lossie decision and rightly so. Connections quiet at moment
Interesting to see who comes out and carry’s it.

FWIW
I blame Townend as all he had to do was tell ricci he wanted to ride her in the champion.
Hes got fucking no chance on state man. And he knows it.
Hooefully Jade stuffs her.
or July
would have doubts about the others.

 

[Irish Rugby]

Lot of people slating the Lossie decision and rightly so. Connections quiet at moment
Interesting to see who comes out and carry’s it.

FWIW
I blame Townend as all he had to do was tell ricci he wanted to ride her in the champion.
Hes got fucking no chance on state man. And he knows it.
Hooefully Jade stuffs her.
or July
would have doubts about the others.

Have to agree with you. I don't wish ill on any man, but I'll be smiling if Lossiemouth gets turned over. She's a fav to get take on with.

If you fancy July Flower then you can't discount Kala Conti. Joyeuse, Jetara, all against a mare that fell last time.

 

[DenmanSacre]

Lot of people slating the Lossie decision and rightly so. Connections quiet at moment
Interesting to see who comes out and carry’s it.

FWIW
I blame Townend as all he had to do was tell ricci he wanted to ride her in the champion.
Hes got fucking no chance on state man. And he knows it.
Hooefully Jade stuffs her.
or July
would have doubts about the others.

Joe Chambers not that quiet on Twitter - quite funny his tweet tbf.

Townend not picking her for the Champion doesn't give the greatest vibes for this race either. Much deeper race than last couple of years. She could sluice up again but she wasn't impressive against Teahupoo either. Bad mistake in that race. Slow against CH when I think they'll put a good pace on. Fell last time. Makes the market for the others.

 

[FinalFurlong91]

I'm surprised she got put up to 160 by the handicapper for beating teahupoo

Her FSP was 115% which is super super high

So they've gone an absolute crawl and she a 2m4f/2m horse has out sprinted teahupoo a 3m/2m4f

under those conditions i strongly doubt teahupoo has run anything like he can

Shes not improved 4lb in winning that

the RPRS for the race seem a better judge of what happened giving her 151 and him 149

Jade is 151 and unexposed i reckon she might give her a race

And importantly danny is riding. When these mullins first strings get beaten by a stablemate its almost always when danny is riding.

 

[Yosser]

The mares has been that much of a head banger this year i left the top of the market alone. BDA and Lossie, where will they go etc, Jade De Grugy been injured all season and is back at the death, one hurried run and then straight here. It's a bit of a minefield. It's a race i have had to let go by the wayside so only have each way plays on Dysart Enos, Jetara and Gala Marceau. It's one of about 3 races i am weak in. I now have no representative in the Mares Chase after having big prices on Only By Night and Bioluminescence this time last week swiped away in the past few days but C'est La Vie and will hammer something about 20 minutes before. The mares have muddled up my book. I am with Chappers, bin em off!!!!! :welcoming::welcoming::welcoming:

 

[Craigy14]

I'm surprised she got put up to 160 by the handicapper for beating teahupoo

Her FSP was 115% which is super super high

So they've gone an absolute crawl and she a 2m4f/2m horse has out sprinted teahupoo a 3m/2m4f

under those conditions i strongly doubt teahupoo has run anything like he can

Shes not improved 4lb in winning that

the RPRS for the race seem a better judge of what happened giving her 151 and him 149

Jade is 151 and unexposed i reckon she might give her a race

And importantly danny is riding. When these mullins first strings get beaten by a stablemate its almost always when danny is riding.

Remember she won that Hattons Grace in an absolute canter.

She’ll have similar conditions at a track she loves as well.

I think field is stronger this year but don’t think they’ll be good enough to get to her level. The prep isn’t ideal but the Xmas run was decent enough against the best hurdler potentially we’ve ever seen. Obviously the fall last time is the big concern but as long as she’s recovered it doesn’t really bother me too much. She doesn’t know the stats on fallers etc.

 

[FinalFurlong91]

Remember she won that Hattons Grace in an absolute canter.

She’ll have similar conditions at a track she loves as well.

I think field is stronger this year but don’t think they’ll be good enough to get to her level. The prep isn’t ideal but the Xmas run was decent enough against the best hurdler potentially we’ve ever seen. Obviously the fall last time is the big concern but as long as she’s recovered it doesn’t really bother me too much. She doesn’t know the stats on fallers etc.

she did win an a canter but youd be extremely worried if she couldnt beat the stayers hurdle winner in what was effectively a 4f sprint

It's the Xmas run that concerns me more than the fall as a backer tbh

One thing lossie has always done is travel very strongly. Almost all of her runs read travelled strongly or took keen hold. Shes done it on various tracks and various grounds. But that day she simply didn't look herself at all.

But maybe I'm being pessimistic and I do have jade as back up. Plus the likely 3rd fav golden ace isn't running.

 

[Craigy14]

she did win an a canter but youd be extremely worried if she couldnt beat the stayers hurdle winner in what was effectively a 4f sprint

It's the Xmas run that concerns me more than the fall as a backer tbh

One thing lossie has always done is travel very strongly. Almost all of her runs read travelled strongly or took keen hold. Shes done it on various tracks and various grounds. But that day she simply didn't look herself at all.

But maybe I'm being pessimistic and I do have jade as back up. Plus the likely 3rd fav golden ace isn't running.

I just don’t think they expected the fast pace, naive imo. Knowing Burdett Road was in the field who likes to set a decent pace, but she still beat him easily and was only 2 and a bit lengths off C Hill. She’s always travelled so well as races probably not ran as strong as that Xmas hurdle on a flat track and good ground thrown into the mix.

C Hill obviously not at his best but on days like that he still got the job done and she was staying on all the way imo. I’m in a similar position in that have Jade and July as cover but wouldn’t be surprised to see Lossie do similar to last year.

 

[FinalFurlong91]

I just don’t think they expected the fast pace, naive imo. Knowing Burdett Road was in the field who likes to set a decent pace, but she still beat him easily and was only 2 and a bit lengths off C Hill. She’s always travelled so well as races probably not ran as strong as that Xmas hurdle on a flat track and good ground thrown into the mix.

C Hill obviously not at his best but on days like that he still got the job done and she was staying on all the way imo. I’m in a similar position in that have Jade and July as cover but wouldn’t be surprised to see Lossie do similar to last year.

The FSP was 106% so they didn't even go quick at kempton

 

[Hurricane fly]

If you think she is vulnerable in the Mares you should have no complaint about her not being in the CH as she would be out the picture by the final turn

 

[riccirich]

Just so I know for the future, who was the driving force behind the vautour switch to the Ryanair, mullins or ricci?

Wasn't doing antepost back then so didn't pay much attention to it. Useful to know for future festivals if it's 100% ricci who was the shithouse in both situations, or whether mullins was the one with vautour.

 

[Quevega]

Just so I know for the future, who was the driving force behind the vautour switch to the Ryanair, mullins or ricci?

Wasn't doing antepost back then so didn't pay much attention to it. Useful to know for future festivals if it's 100% ricci who was the shithouse in both situations, or whether mullins was the one with vautour.

Was Mullins and Walsh.
Walsh said he'd ride Djakadam in Gold cup so they persuaded Ricci to go Ryanair with Vautour.
Slightly different as Ricci had 2 with a decent shout.
They kind or used the recent workouts as the reasoning.

Sounds very much like the jockey has played a similar card, although this time Ricci probably had more choice.

 

[Kevloaf]

Just so I know for the future, who was the driving force behind the vautour switch to the Ryanair, mullins or ricci?

Wasn't doing antepost back then so didn't pay much attention to it. Useful to know for future festivals if it's 100% ricci who was the shithouse in both situations, or whether mullins was the one with vautour.

It's always Mullins, then jockey
The owner is on record as saying he pays them to make the decisions and do the right thing by the horse etc etc

 

[riccirich]

Was Mullins and Walsh.
Walsh said he'd ride Djakadam in Gold cup so they persuaded Ricci to go Ryanair with Vautour.
Slightly different as Ricci had 2 with a decent shout.
They kind or used the recent workouts as the reasoning.

Sounds very much like the jockey has played a similar card, although this time Ricci probably had more choice.

Only thing I remembered was ricci being disappointed after the Ryanair, which made me think it was mullins but going by this year I thought it could have been ricci back then too. Useful to know.

While the decision makes my stomach turn, it would be silly to not try and see the opportunity in this kind of nonsense.

For next years festival my ante post backing will be trimmed down considerably. I'll only be backing horses who I can genuinely envision having that superstar potential to go off as a very strong fave (no leau du sud/firefox/gerri colombe type ante post bets from this season for example). Along with horses who I'm convinced are hugely overpriced (lecky watson 100/1 and kawboomga 66/1 after a good second for example). I'll still back the leau du sud and firefox types for example in case it's a weak year, but not strongly, and with a view to laying stakes off very quickly after they make use of they're advantages (leau du sud big jumping experience, and firefox out early before mullins brigade to win weak races and get cut).

but I'll be saving the vast majority of my bank for nrnb and silly season the week before, as there's much more value on offer imo. Only a few days ago you could get lossie at 15s or so on the exchange, after comments from a dated mullins stable tour. Along with kopek and final demand at good prices nrnb when people were thinking different races for them. Also the handicap markets being left up the week before during scratchings. Loads of avenues to get value imo, much better than guessing ante post three months out.

 

[Quevega]

Only thing I remembered was ricci being disappointed after the Ryanair, which made me think it was mullins but going by this year I thought it could have been ricci back then too. Useful to know.

While the decision makes my stomach turn, it would be silly to not try and see the opportunity in this kind of nonsense.

For next years festival my ante post backing will be trimmed down considerably. I'll only be backing horses who I can genuinely envision having that superstar potential to go off as a very strong fave (no leau du sud/firefox/gerri colombe type ante post bets from this season for example). Along with horses who I'm convinced are hugely overpriced (lecky watson 100/1 and kawboomga 66/1 after a good second for example). I'll still back the leau du sud and firefox types for example in case it's a weak year, but not strongly, and with a view to laying stakes off very quickly after they make use of they're advantages (leau du sud big jumping experience, and firefox out early before mullins brigade to win weak races and get cut).

but I'll be saving the vast majority of my bank for nrnb and silly season the week before, as there's much more value on offer imo. Only a few days ago you could get lossie at 15s or so on the exchange, after comments from a dated mullins stable tour. Along with kopek and final demand at good prices nrnb when people were thinking different races for them. Also the handicap markets being left up the week before during scratchings. Loads of avenues to get value imo, much better than guessing ante post three months out.

As soon as NRNB markets appear - there is a lot of opportunity for trying to work out different scenarios and how they play out.
I'm annoyed at Ricci's decision but had planned for it with cover doubles NRNB, including Kargess, C Hill, BDA, Jade etc.
Almost all my multiples are NRNB.

The number of multiples I see people do antepost just doesn't sit well with me.
I reckon it's tough to even get 5-10% still live come the day, and that doesn't account for having beat the price either.
A lot of spaff.

 

[Quevega]

It's always Mullins, then jockey
The owner is on record as saying he pays them to make the decisions and do the right thing by the horse etc etc

One of those things we disagree on.
An owner like Ricci will always have final say, even if he often goes along with what they advise, and might be a touch gullible. It's his and his wife's horse.
And in this instance, despite what they eventually come out with, I'd be pretty sure Ricci has had final say on this call.

Owners on record saying Vautour goes to the Gold cup or nothing.
That decision was different also as I mentioned earlier, as he had Djakadam - and Ruby and Mullins in his ear saying he was outworking Vautour and was a cert for the Gold cup
I'd have loved to have seen the video of that, the acceleration Djakadam had was legendary

He's as much a gobshite as the rest of us, and prone to trotting out tired old tropes as well.

 

[riccirich]

As soon as NRNB markets appear - there is a lot of opportunity for trying to work out different scenarios and how they play out.
I'm annoyed at Ricci's decision but had planned for it with cover doubles NRNB, including Kargess, C Hill, BDA, Jade etc.
Almost all my multiples are NRNB.

The number of multiples I see people do antepost just doesn't sit well with me.
I reckon it's tough to even get 5-10% still live come the day, and that doesn't account for having beat the price either.
A lot of spaff.

Yeah I try to keep antepost multiples very low in numbers and stakes, theres the odd one I have a go at but rarely ever goes well. Port joulain and good n kind from last year was one from memory that i did a couple reverse doubles with. Both debut in a traditionally hot race, pull well clear of the third, record good bumper rpr's, right connections etc. A year later one has been disappointing and one hasn't been seen. I'll still do a few but it's mainly just a bit of interest and the dream of a huge payout, but I realistically expect nothing at all from them and don't focus much on them at all.

Only a month ago you could have got a kopek, final demand and lossie nrnb treble at about 400/1 probably. It's really much better to put more work in at that point.