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2025, The Odds on Offer

….Ladbrokes;

Lossie CH 6-1
F2F GC 8-1
Sir Gino Ark 8-1 (was 20-1)
Bally Ark 10-1
Jade de G MH 12-1
MN CC 12-1
BDA MH 16-1
Il Est Francais GC 16-1
SAF GC 25-1
FV Ry 33-1
 
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…Coral;

Ashroe Diamond MC 8-1
 
Eggs said:
….Ladbrokes;

Lossie CH 6-1
F2F GC 8-1
Sir Gino Ark 8-1 (was 20-1)
Bally Ark 10-1
Jade de G MH 12-1
MN CC 12-1
BDA MH 16-1
Il Est Francais GC 16-1
SAF GC 25-1
FV Ry 33-1
Click to expand...

Is it just me or does that F2F price absolutely honk?
 
I suppose if you think that 3/1 for ll Est Francais to win this year's King George is value then you might look at the 16/1 for the Gold Cup in the same way...?

Similarly, if Facile Vega is making appeal at 5s in the Turners this year, then 33s for the Ryanair might look OK?
 
robith said:
Is it just me or does that F2F price absolutely honk?
Click to expand...


….yep, I dare say the odd one might appeal. Lads did offer Sir Gino @ 20-1 Ark which was popular when highlighted.

Probably also worth considering these in comparison to TWAF offers, F2F has been 33-1 BANC/GC, Jade 25-1 MNH/MH.
 
Evesham Road said:
Similarly, if Facile Vega is making appeal at 5s in the Turners this year, then 33s for the Ryanair might look OK?
Click to expand...

That's probably one of the better ones to be honest. Even if he doesn't run in Turners this year you'd think he'd step up next year. And no obvious intermediate trip chase start is there, novice or otherwise.

It's not enough for me this far out personally but actually makes more appeal than the rest!
 
Istabraq said:
None of them scream value at me !....
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Just out of interest Ista, and I absolutely appreciate the word ‘value’ is perceived completely differently from one person to the next, what prices as a liability for next year’s Gold Cup would you be pricing up Fact to File & Il Est Francais right now, just a touch over 12 months out, with everything we’ve seen from the 2 horses thus far, and every tiny quote we’ve heard from both trainers regarding next year’s Gold Cup??

How would you price them up at this moment, with all the information you have (and perceive to have). if I may kindly ask, and your thoughts behind what you’d be offering as your liability??

I’d be intrigued as to your thoughts.
 
…..interesting Ile est Francais was on offer at 16-1 KG/GC Ladbrokes last month, they now offer 16-1 GC alone.
 
Bollinger said:
How would you price them up at this moment, with all the information you have (and perceive to have). if I may kindly ask, and your thoughts behind what you’d be offering as your liability??

.
Click to expand...

One of the issues I have with ante post markets is the percentage bookies take up, while there's a healthy Gallopin des Champs around everything else will likely to be too short, chance are the first full market to hit us will run at around 200%, which has to be unacceptable.
If GDC hacks up this year he could be sub 2/1 for 2025, nothing should then have a 10%+ chance of winning after him.
I'd say 20/1 for the pair may be reasonable, 8/1 Fact to File is laughable...
 
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Istabraq said:
One of the issues I have with ante post markets is the percentage bookies take up, while there's a healthy Gallopin des Champs around everything else will likely to be too short, chance are the first full market to hit us will run at around 200%, which has to be unacceptable.
If GDC hacks up this year he could be sub 2/1 for 2025, nothing should then have a 10%+ chance of winning after him.
I'd say 20/1 for the pair may be reasonable, 8/1 Fact to File is laughable...
Click to expand...

Thanks for that Ista, very interesting observations, and well articulated.

I would say though that though you feel there is no value whatsoever with the aforementioned prices for 2025, and personally as a punter who solely bets on Cheltenham many months in advance, i would highlight one of the selections which immediately caught my eye, and which also (available on Paddy Power’s most recent online video on YouTube) ascertained my thoughts.

Il Est Francais to win the 2025 Gold Cup - 16/1

For me, it’s an exceptional stand out price.

Firstly, the trainer has just about confirmed that if all things go well, your race target has been highlighted, and underlined.

Secondly, the King George has been confirmed as a race he will be running in. He’s 2/1 for that, and we know for sure he loves racing there.

Before I watched the Paddy Power video, I had a price in my mind for Il Est Francais for the Gold Cup 2025 right now, which was around 8/1 to 10/1 conservatively.

And then Paddy Power’s chief odds compiler Frank Hickey priced him up for next year’s Gold Cup - 4/1, right now, present moment.

Personsally, I wouldn’t be taking the 4/1 he was offering.

But that 16/1 as a 12 month investment, for me, is the absolute, without question, a stand out value price for 2025.
 
It’s only on Ladbrokes website Mighty.

Frank Hickey. PP’s right hand man and chief odds compiler was asked on Tuesday (20/2/24 - available on YouTube) to compile odds for just a couple of horses for next year. 4/1 was his (he confessed he haven’t spent a great deal of time on it, admittedly) early suggestion.

I think the 16’s, as an investment, is beautiful value.

If a horse that’s 2/1 for a King George wins by 5 lengths (hypothesizing, but possible), your 16/1 twelve months out will be sitting at no more than 3/1, 7/2 regardless of Galopin Des Champs efforts hence forth.
 
Bollinger said:
Thanks for that Ista, very interesting observations, and well articulated.

I would say though that though you feel there is no value whatsoever with the aforementioned prices for 2025, and personally as a punter who solely bets on Cheltenham many months in advance, i would highlight one of the selections which immediately caught my eye, and which also (available on Paddy Power’s most recent online video on YouTube) ascertained my thoughts.

Il Est Francais to win the 2025 Gold Cup - 16/1

For me, it’s an exceptional stand out price.

Firstly, the trainer has just about confirmed that if all things go well, your race target has been highlighted, and underlined.

Secondly, the King George has been confirmed as a race he will be running in. He’s 2/1 for that, and we know for sure he loves racing there.

Before I watched the Paddy Power video, I had a price in my mind for Il Est Francais for the Gold Cup 2025 right now, which was around 8/1 to 10/1 conservatively.

And then Paddy Power’s chief odds compiler Frank Hickey priced him up for next year’s Gold Cup - 4/1, right now, present moment.

Personsally, I wouldn’t be taking the 4/1 he was offering.

But that 16/1 as a 12 month investment, for me, is the absolute, without question, a stand out value price for 2025.
Click to expand...

To assess value you need to understand risk, you will no doubt understand this.

The horse has had 3 chase starts, he was incredibly impressive at Kempton in a good ground 3m chase on a flat right handed track, what he would face in a Gold Cup is a world away from that.
He has the look of a horse who could be a star but beat 3 UK horses at Kempton, arguably the best staying novice these shores has to offer is Stay Away Fay who wasn't there and there's an army of Irish horses who could be better, plus the already established brigade.

Of all the prices that were highlighted the 16/1 you mention is probably the most reasonable, still no value to me but the best of a bad bunch....
 
Istabraq said:
To assess value you need to understand risk, you will no doubt understand this.

The horse has had 3 chase starts, he was incredibly impressive at Kempton in a good ground 3m chase on a flat right handed track, what he would face in a Gold Cup is a world away from that.
He has the look of a horse who could be a star but beat 3 UK horses at Kempton, arguably the best staying novice these shores has to offer is Stay Away Fay who wasn't there and there's an army of Irish horses who could be better, plus the already established brigade.

Of all the prices that were highlighted the 16/1 you mention is probably the most reasonable, still no value to me but the best of a bad bunch....
Click to expand...

How would you assess the price of Con’ Hill to win both the ‘24 & ‘25 Champion Hurdles ??

5/4 with PP.

1/3 for this year’s

But 4x unlikely to back it up next year, at those odds.

Do you think 5/4, taking all the variables into consideration, and the luxury of NRMB not being assigned here, is value, or not.

Nailed on for this year, but odds against as a ‘related contingency’ bet.

I’ve been trying to assess this 5/4 for a few weeks now - and still can’t quite work out it’s value.
 
Bollinger said:
How would you assess the price of Con’ Hill to win both the ‘24 & ‘25 Champion Hurdles ??

5/4 with PP.

1/3 for this year’s

But 4x unlikely to back it up next year, at those odds.

Do you think 5/4, taking all the variables into consideration, and the luxury of NRMB not being assigned here, is value, or not.

Nailed on for this year, but odds against as a ‘related contingency’ bet.

I’ve been trying to assess this 5/4 for a few weeks now - and still can’t quite work out it’s value.
Click to expand...

I'd say 5/4 is OK, I'd expect it to be a shade of odds on.
The risk really centres around the chase discussion rearing up again, we know he's half a stone (or more) better than State Man and I can't believe any of this years novices will be threatening his crown in open company.
Is there a comparison market, win this years champion hurdle and any race 2025 ?
I'd happily play this at around 4/7.
It's all academic for me as I don't have access to these markets and I can't believe you'd get much on anyway, but best of luck if you can...
 
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