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2017 Champion Hurdle

  • Thread starter Thread starter Deleted member 4957
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The more and more I see these champion hurdle contenders the more I think MTOY has been massively over looked at 50/1. Yes, his early season form hasn't been great, but as stated previously I can find excuses for these. His form at Cheltenham despite not winning is really consistent. Four 2nd places, 2 in the Champion Hurdle and one in a pretty competitive Supreme.

I'm not surprised Nicky has given him a break as he runs well when fresh and spring time at Cheltenham is perfect for him.

I'm already on 5pts each way, but may go in again.
 
Istabraq said:
I'd say no but the Champion hurdle next year has the makings of an epic renewal:

Faugheen
Arctic Fire
MTOY
Annie Power
Altior
Ivanovic Gorbatov
Yorkhill

No doubt there will be defections and injuries but that would be some race....
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Forgot to add, as the above list was straight after last years race, if someone had said MTOY was 50/1 without the above lot of horses as challengers most would have bitten the hands off whoever was offering this.

Such is now looking like the case, and I can't believe this horse has declined so much given him being so lightly raced for his age to now be 50/1 for this race.
 
It looks like he's regressed massively to me CoD. He still races too keenly and doesn't appear to be getting home. I went to the paddock at Haydock on betfair chase day and he looked really well (never seen as much head gear on a horse though) but he disappointed and has done again since.

However, at 50/1 you expect plenty of negatives. If he returned to form is give him a chance of placing again in what is an open year.
 
IMO if Yanworth jumps like that in the Champion Hurdle he wont be winning it and would find it tough to place. From my eye his jumping was sticky and was all out to a horse rated 149 and only won by a length.
Brain Power is standing out more and more.
 
I'm a big fan of Chtibello and think he can run better than his odds suggest. Whoever they choose to ride him will need to hold onto him until very late, riding him to pass beaten horses in the last furlong, with the aim of pinching a place.
 
The winner will come from the Supreme of last year. Petit Mouchoir is the horse. The change of tactics this year make this the horse to back this year. With doubts surrounding most of the principles, this horse will just run them ragged.
 
I like your confidence MB but I can't see any horse in this field running them ragged. I think there will be 4 or 5 in with a chance when jumping the last
 
I'm probably getting carried away because I'm on at 33-1, and I know I'm not the only one, but just can't see anything going past it over the last fence.
 
I was someone who felt Yanworth should go to the Champion Hurdle when the season started. However, having watched him this season I find myself wondering why Buveur D'air was sent chasing and not Yanworth.

The shape he makes and how big he is at his hurdles made me think today. Anyone else thinking along similar lines?
 
Been Looking at this race Long and hard this morning , I have a final selection of Yanworth , Petite mouchoir and Brain Power,. Looking at the trends /Stats , Definitely think it's between these 3. It wasn't pretty yesterday , but I am going to go with Yanworth , B.power and then P .mouchoir , as the first 3 , I think that on raceday ,Yanworth will step up a notch, after all , he's won all his prep races ,even if not impressively. The only thing might change the outlook for me is if VVm goes , as obviously she'll get the weight allowance.
 
Who do you think BJG will ride? I've just watched the Cheltenham Preview from Ascot yesterday and betfair have it priced up as 4/6 Yanworth, 11/10 BD, 20/1 bar.

I thought it would be BD after yesterday's performance but not confident enough to have a bet.
 
I thought Yanworth did OK yesterday, Wincanton is a real speedsters track with a long downhill run for most of the run in, the polar opposite of Cheltenham, he beat a couple of very good yardsticks abd proved he has the pace and change of gears over the minimum trip.
I completely accept the CH is a different ball game and only time will tell if he can beat the best (of those who turn up) but I'm not knocking the performance....
 
Not what I was told today. But who knows? :rolleyes:

Ive already backed her numb, but based on the above, the bet I took was Limini 4/1 for the Mares.
 
Apple's jade worst run of last season was at Cheltenham - I know Willie said,he should have done more but I will be against her wherever she runs.

Last year's festival form has got to be key to this race - JP has the best of it with the runners up from champion, supreme and Neptune. I don't really like yanworth - but he has the best form and on tracks that shouldn't have suited imo.
 
mayo said:
Apple's jade worst run of last season was at Cheltenham - I know Willie said,he should have done more but I will be against her wherever she runs.

Last year's festival form has got to be key to this race - JP has the best of it with the runners up from champion, supreme and Neptune. I don't really like yanworth - but he has the best form and on tracks that shouldn't have suited imo.
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It wasn't a bad run though Mayo - finishing 2nd in a triumph.
 
loveracing said:
Not what I was told today. But who knows? :rolleyes:

Ive already backed her numb, but based on the above, the bet I took was Limini 4/1 for the Mares.
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I have got WAY too much on AJ for the CH .... if I get a run for my money and can lay off my stake back I would be over the moon!

Backed her at 10s, 16s and 25s at different stages of the season. Had written everything off :highly_amused:
 
mayo said:
Apple's jade worst run of last season was at Cheltenham - I know Willie said,he should have done more but I will be against her wherever she runs.

Last year's festival form has got to be key to this race - JP has the best of it with the runners up from champion, supreme and Neptune. I don't really like yanworth - but he has the best form and on tracks that shouldn't have suited imo.
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Didn't she try to nearly make all and had some good horses in behind?
 
Almost everything i've seen from Yanworth this year suggests he can't win and he needs to be going down the stayers route. His jumping is too sketchy at 2 miles and he never really makes up any lengths at each jump. He doesn't possess a turn of foot that you'd like to see in a Champion Hurdler either. All of that suggests he'll be losing ground when jumping throughout the race and then when they kick on at the turn for home he'll be outpaced and too far back. However he has a high cruising speed that means that he can get by with jumping mistakes and make up the ground inbetween and even when he has shown to lack that turn of foot (Kempton) he's still been within distance to then grind them down and get his head in front and if the horse is only a length or two behind at the last then I think he'd be able to outbattle anyone in the field to win.

An above average renewal i'd dismiss him completely but we don't have that this year. The problem is the same applies to a lot in the field!

Push comes to shove I keep coming back down to Buveur D'Air. He looks the best jumper in the field for me. I am slightly wary of his run last time out. It was a very classy ride from Geraghty with minimal effort to just cruise past Rayvin Black after the last but I do wonder why such tactics? It was BG's first ride on the horse so maybe he was just getting a feel for the horse and all his hurdle runs have had him held back but in the back of my mind I wonder whether he had concerns on what the horse would find when then in front. If that is the case the worry would be someone like Yanworth could grind him down.

Worth noting that Ch'tibello has raced against most of the English challengers now and fared well beating MTOY's, 3.5 lengths back from Yanworth and The New One and then beating Sceau Royal yesterday, 1 length behind Yanworth. Skelton has insisted that Superb Story is his best hope in the race and is quite bullish he can pick up a place. I get the feeling he may have been sending Ch'tibello out as a bit of a sighter in where Superb Story stands.

Have to say I was suprised that Yanworth is odds on for Geraghty to ride - i'd have imagined Buveur D'Air would be his pick now.

It's hard to red the form and come to a solid conclusion. I'm keen to side with the Supreme form from last year and I think he's the classiest horse in the race and the best jumper too. Said to be the fastest horse in the yard (even more so than Altior), I can see a similar finish to last years Neptune - BD (as Yorkhill did) will have the speed to kick on by 3-4 lengths coming to the last and that'll be too much for Yanworth to reel in.
 
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