Supreme Novices 2017

[Faugheen_Machine]

He's running in the Adonis at Kempton in a couple of weeks. The Adonis doesn't have a good record for supreme winners.

I can't imagine there have been many Adonis horses run in the supreme.

 

[DeeBee]

I'm still scratching my head with this and other than Jenkins making a surprise comfort i'm on very little of any substance. Even if forced to now, i couldnt confidently pick out anything. It might be a case of seeing what shortens on the day as i doubt we'll see much further shortenings

 

[darlojim]

Is NJH happy to send Jenkins straight to this then? Thought he would have had another run out before hand

 

[HardyEustace]

Is NJH happy to send Jenkins straight to this then? Thought he would have had another run out before hand

He previously said Jenkins would need to have another run for them to even consider going to Cheltenham. Maybe another one for Kempton at the end of the month

 

[jono]

Did anything come to light after the 'flop' last time. Such a lovely jumper and as they said in commentry (or jsut after) the white socks make it look even better

Nothing of note. With the way the Supreme market is looking I thought LDS may just have a chance in this again. His jumping really is an assest and going from the front seems to suit the horse. (made all in his Kempton win and at the weekend but didn't at Ascot). Seemed to get on well with Nico onboard too which could be a link up in the Supreme (his only entry) but Henderson was pretty downbeat on that after:

Henderson regards the winner as "only a baby" and "a long-term project" and seemed caught between two stools as to whether to commit the winner to the Festival. "He is quite a quick horse but you wouldn't want to be trying to make all in the Supreme and I just wonder whether it might all be a bit much for him."

He said he'd talk things through with owners Michael Grech and Stuart Parkin, whose team of 10 young horses cost plenty to put together and also includes the likes of Stowaway Magic and Lough Derg Farmer.

"They know what they're doing these two, and we'll see what they think - they're wise owls," he said.

If i'm honest I think he may just lack the fight for the Supreme anyway even if he was to turn up (i could see him travelling and jumping well throughout and then getting swallowed up round the turn and coming through to finish 4/5th) but a horse I have a soft spot for that's for sure

 

[SH1591]

Any idea why Capitaine is 33's for this, seems massive

 

[doctorwu]

Any idea why Capitaine is 33's for this, seems massive

he looks far to short @33s for me

 

[SH1591]

he looks far to short @33s for me

Would have been much closer to finians oscar had he not blundered the second last

 

[jono]

Finians Oscar runs over 2 miles at Exeter this Sunday. A good win (as anticipated) could push him further towards the Supreme picture

 

[Kevloaf]

Ground might tell us a lot? ACtually, Tizzard will probably tell us after the race.

 

[doctorwu]

Final furlong podcast are all over Saturnas for the deloitte & supreme. Some decent info on the podcast imo.

 

[doctorwu]

Finians Oscar runs over 2 miles at Exeter this Sunday. A good win (as anticipated) could push him further towards the Supreme picture

jono,
He's in the Melon camp for me. Terrible value whatever race he takes in.

 

[Aldie1988]

Final furlong podcast are all over Saturnas for the deloitte & supreme. Some decent info on the podcast imo.

That would mean that Airlie Beach is some beast for the mares novice hurdle aswell :encouragement:

 

[doctorwu]

Finians Oscar form just taken a dent @Donny this afternoon.

 

[Aldie1988]

In what way doctorwu?

 

[Kevloaf]

jono,
He's in the Melon camp for me. Terrible value whatever race he takes in.

Purely on value I agree with this. :encouragement: I don't even think I like Finian's Oscar.

 

[jono]

jono,
He's in the Melon camp for me. Terrible value whatever race he takes in.

Have to say I quite like Finians Oscar myself though i'd agree his Neptune odds are waaaay too skinny. I don't rate the Tolworth form at all, not a fan of the runner up Capitaine (though that doesn't make my liking for LDS look good :very_drunk but in a year where the novice hurdle division has seemingly struggled I think he's looked decent.

Not sure how you could say 25's for the Supreme is terrible value though?!

Right now he's not a horse i'm thinking of backing come the festival but he'll enter my calculations for consideration. Really I
was just making a case that the trip on Sunday could point to the Supreme rather than what is considered the more likely Neptune route.

I'd also say he came out at a time where the Tizzard media frenzy was at an absolute overdrive so the reaction to his runs I think has been exaggerated to a degree based on that.

 

[Johar]

Not sure if this has been discussed recently, but what do we think are the chances that Moon Racer runs in the Champion now and not here...?

I hope he stays here. To me he's one of the two top novice hurdlers this year atm (the other being Death Duty) and with Ruby surely riding Melon I think he could be a decent price on the day :encouragement:

 

[Kevloaf]

Moon racer team have said this is the plan (even after faugheen came out) ...

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

They may run him here but they should really be taking their chance in the Champion. He's 8 years old and obviously a fragile animal - they should strike while he's fit and well.