Cheltenham 2017 Antepost Bets

[Leman14]

Thatll be my book ruined, Yorkhill will be in the Arkle or probably the CH

I would suggest that CH for Yorkhill is more likely than Arkle.
CH looks wide open, whereas Altior looks to be a much tougher proposition...

 

[ryanh97]

Yeah im sure he'll be in the CH. God dammit

 

[Star Of A Gunner]

Correct Ryan, that will be three gone in no time along with Annie and Vautour, it's an absolute mare for me, I said after last years fiasco that I would rein in my ante post, and I have to a certain extent but I think now ante post next year will be a nono.

 

[HardyEustace]

It's tough to take, but injuries can happen, regardless of which stable they are out of.
Changing targets is normally where we get stung on Mullins horses.

No it's not the usual Mullins sting of changing targets, just the frustration of not sticking to my original plan!

 

[Al Ferof]

Just a real shame for the festival to lose some real depth and obviously awful antepost.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Thankfully I've avoided the Mullins horses in the main so my ante post book is looking quite good.

I'd much prefer them to be running though and Cheltenham will be much the poorer without them.

 

[robith]

Thankfully I've avoided the Mullins horses in the main so my ante post book is looking quite good.

I'd much prefer them to be running though and Cheltenham will be much the poorer without them.

Yeah Faugheen rinsed my book last year, so I've only one with him in (after Ruby said he was grand on The Opening Show)

But you want all the best horses there, so it really blows in that respect

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Yeah Faugheen rinsed my book last year, so I've only one with him in (after Ruby said he was grand on The Opening Show)

But you want all the best horses there, so it really blows in that respect

So did I Robith and was determined not to let 'Mullins Bingo' ruin the majority of my ante posts again this year.

 

[Liam301287]

I know everyone is in a bit of a flat mood today. But this could make us looks at more new exciting stars in next year or 2 who we would never usually look at before. Then it might make next few festival even better with more wide open races. We have being a bit lucky with Mullins horses over last few like though. We all know we be putting even more bets on this time next year

 

[Deleted member 4957]

I avoid Mullins horses like the plague from an ante post persepective.
Playing the annual guessing game, or as Kev puts it 'Ricci Roulette', is the way to the poor house and has been proved the past couple of years.
I'm happy smashing into a 5/4 shot on the day and more than happy watching the big prices disappear as the year develops, but I know I'm getting a run.

So is the yard just extremely unlucky this year or is there more to it ?
Giggs shift theirs out and the yard get nothing but bad news, coincidence ?
Are training methods right ? A large number of serious non racecourse injuries, coincidence ?

Just thinking aloud....

 

[Kevloaf]

I think it is more likely to be coincedence. To be able to have "created" such stars, he's had to train them to levels that others haven't been doing (relatively) and he still have more favs than any other trainer, despite what has happened?

I'd say unlucky overall too, Giggi split was a business decision. Vautour was a freak accident. Faugheen and Annie have been fragile for a while. Top horses do tend to be, they try that bit harder and all that?


Personal punting perspective -
Faugheen in total has only actually cost me 16 points. Which of the 566 points I have staked isn't as much as I'd thought when I got a text through this afternoon. (The majority of Faugheen bets I had, also had Annie Power in, so the damage had been done as I said a few pages back)

Avoiding Mullins horses is certainly a strategy I'll consider... will (as ever) need time and analysis to be able to make an educated decision on though.

 

[Kevloaf]

I know everyone is in a bit of a flat mood today. But this could make us looks at more new exciting stars in next year or 2 who we would never usually look at before. Then it might make next few festival even better with more wide open races. We have being a bit lucky with Mullins horses over last few like though. We all know we be putting even more bets on this time next year

My returns at the end of this festival will 100% be dictating how I approach next years. DAys like today certainly knock the confidence and the extrapolation of my year-on-year increases means I would need a second (and third) job within a couple of years to keep going at the rate I am :triumphant::very_drunk:

 

[Liam301287]

Me racing buddy said to me before start of the season don't do Ante post bets till non runner no bet comes up. Most I could lose if Altior re routed is about 50 with all these small trebles and accumulators I have done. So pleased I eased down a bit this year. If this was this time last year I would of being about £200 down before festival starts with these 2 horses.

 

[jono]

I posted the below in November. At the time it was thinking aloud and my random thoughts. The injuries haven't improved much since.

I still think this may be the start of a new cycle/changing of the guard. Even the very best sportsmen/teams etc come to an end. Often with trainers injuries to their top stars can be the start). Also worth noting that since this post Mullin's novice hurdlers have pretty much all not lived up to the expectation that was expected and don't look a vintage crop. Injuries and fatalities to his top stars and a lack (in Mullin's case) of new talent coming through would be a sign!

It's also worth imo keeping an eye on this. Mullin's domination will wane, whether it is now or later down the years, there's no question of that. It's when rather than if. Mullins dominates antepost betting so just his association with the horse makes them shorter than the should be. I think bookmakers and many punters will continue with this thinking even when his horses aren't perhaps of the calibre that we've been used to over the last 4-5 years. His horses will still be considered 'bankers' and it's at that point where value can be found :encouragement: (if that makes sense?!)

I could be jumping the gun here but has anyone thought that we may be seeing the early signs that the Willie Mullins juggernaut may be on the wane, just slightly?

This isn't based on the slow start to the season that Mullins is experiencing. I think it's actually been blown out of proportion - Willie usually bides his time and doesn't get going until mid November. Add in the lack of rain and it's no surprise that's led into December this year (The problem with that though is although the horses may be ready a week or 2 later - the races may not be there for them)

However to me there are just a few things so far this season that suggests a 'changing of the guard' could be on the horizon. In no way am I expecting this to happen this season, Mullins just has too many quality horses but think about a few things that have happened so far this season:

1. Gigginstown withdraw all their horses from the stable. Probably the 2 most high profile horses - Don Poli and Apples Jade have obviously disappointed but there's still plenty of good horses there with the likes of Valseur Lido, Blow by Blow, Peace News, A Toi Phil etc.

2. Vautour. He may have been messed around by connections but he was a huge loss to the yard.

3. Setbacks to Other star names notably Annie Power and Faugheen. I know Faugheen (plus Arctic Fire, Killultagh Vic) missed the festivals last year but generally over the last 3-4 years Mullins has done very well to get the vast majority of his horses fit and healthy to tackle all the big Spring races. He made a point of highlighting this 2 seasons back.

In 2012/2013 Nicky Henderson won the trainers title and had Sprinter Sacre, Simonsig and Bobs Worth and others looking like they could dominate the next few years. Injuries to Simonsig and Sprinter Sacre in 2013 was a huge loss for him.

Know I think the setup Mullins has is so thorough that it'll take a few horses to have a major effect on his season but every sport runs in cycles and the very best cannot dominate their sport forever - very early days of course but just a hunch I have that we may be seeing the Mullins "domination" start to falter.

(of course Annie and Faugheen may recover their fitness and then the likes of Yorkhill, Black Hercules, Douvan, VVM and co may run soon and i'll sound like an idiot!! :very_drunk

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Interesting jono, that's a fair crystal ball you have there....

 

[Kevloaf]

Agree in parts but:
1. He will still be up trainer at Chelt
2. Douvan is the best horse in training
3. Nicholls and Hendo still are a few years from being able to dominate again
4. Tizzard is a good example of how far behind some good trainers still are?
5. Yorkhill could dominate.
6. Will be king of the mares for years to come. The next AP and VVM aren't far away.


I think you're right, it will come to an end at some point ... but who would take up the mantle?

 

[Zoowraa]

Agree in parts but:
1. He will still be up trainer at Chelt
2. Douvan is the best horse in training
3. Nicholls and Hendo still are a few years from being able to dominate again
4. Tizzard is a good example of how far behind some good trainers still are?
5. Yorkhill could dominate.
6. Will be king of the mares for years to come. The next AP and VVM aren't far away.


I think you're right, it will come to an end at some point ... but who would take up the mantle?

I wouldn't be too sure about Mullins top trainer. I posted a few days ago that this has to be Hendersons strongest team in years and backed him at 13/2, that's without today's news breaking.

In general though, unless anyone has inside knowledge, I have no real idea why so many have Mullins horses in ante post positions. Majority of them are hyped early on in their careers and represent little value, don't get me wrong quite a few have lived up to that hype, but from a purely form perspective they were not value at that specific time.
Mullins will clearly have winners, but I'm happy to not have them on my side as they are often short enough anyhow.
I have my eye on one from his stable in Bacardys, but he's around 12s - 16s so it's worth it from a price angle.

 

[darlojim]

Anyone got a list of hendersons runners for the festival?

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

NJH could have a good first day. Charlie Parcs, Altior and Buveur D'air could all go off fav.

 

[Mytentoryours1]

On the subject of Hendo. I think the 6/1 about Consul De Thaix looks a good each way bet in the Betfair Hurdle.

At longer odds I also Gassin Golf. Travelled well last time but didn't see out 2m 4f. Won a handicap by 4.5 lengths off 135 at Newbury last March and now down to 133. Kerry's horses now in better form than when he last ran in November.