2024 Stayers Hurdle

[Lobos]

As Theleme is going straight to the Fez without a prior English prep I think his price will hold up so he may be one to back once NRNB appears.

Agreed at the prices (around 20's) both West Balboa (Long Walk next) and Sir Gerhard (currently Willes shortest priced horse) are worth keeping a close eye on.

 

[AaronLad]

People making a case for crambo for the stayers. What drugs are taking and where can I get some? Sounds like it’s some craic hi!

Originally posted by Zachx02 View Post
For me if he was going to win the race he'd have won on Saturday and although the ride was crap(if paddy brennan was on instead i reckon he'd have won) if the horse is good enough to win a stayers he would have gone and won and would have needed to do so in an impressive fashion posting at least an RPR in the mid 150s for me to entertain it, but he could be one for the pertemps now, like alaphilpe for the trainer 2 years ago.

For me Theleme just wins, I remember putting him up in the roll ups thread in May when bet365 priced up the French CHurdle early and he was something stupid like 4-1 and ended up going off at 7-4 or something I believe, the form just adds up from that race and you can't say it isn't good form either and can't be used as you'd be saying all of the Mullins Battalion, Hermes Baie who he knocked off as Frances best hurdler, Flooring Porter and Feronily behind all didn't run to form which would just be doing anything to try and crab the performance and I don't believe we've even seen the best of him either as he's 6 and still progressing​


Lisnagar oscar was well beaten in saturdays race at haydock in the same season as which he won the stayers. it can and has been done.
Paisley park won the race by 1/2 length off 147, only 8lbs higher than what crambo ran off on saturday. it was a very similar run to crambos, finishing like a train and unlike crambo getting up in the last strides. The rpr's might be different but the performance was very similar.

Unfortunately crambo couldn't reach the 2 very well handicapped irish horses that had lightweights compared to the 11-10 he was carrying. I find it highly unlikely they'll go for the pertemps to be done like that again.
His best performance for me came in his win at sandown when he was ridden much more prominently, that was over 2m4f in heavy going, he stayed on very strongly up the sandown hill that day, being headed and battling back.
The french 6 year old who is a single figure price has never seen a hill, nevermind like the one he'll encounter at cheltenham. Both going downhill and coming back uphill.

In the stayers hurdle there's a lot of running in the last 7 and half furlongs, only 2 hurdles to jump in that distance.
In that sandown race i mention there was 2 hurdles omitted and also in his aintree win there was 4 hurdles omitted,
The run in at haydock from the back of the last is nearly 2f and this is where crambo was doing his best work.
The sandown win where he finished so well uphill.
It all points to him being very well suited to cheltenham and the stayers.​


Studfarm it's quite easy to crab somebody who's makng a case for a horse, especially when that horse has just been beaten.
What i'd like to hear is why you don't think crambo can win the stayers?
And zach why are you so sure theleme will just win, having never raced in britain?

 

[Exar Essay]

AaronLad I do like Crambo and his weaving runs to the line … but … I don’t expect him to be smaller than 25/1 on the day. He could be of course, but I just don’t see it. Lisnagar Oscar went off 50/1 didn’t he (I backed him on trials day and let him run at the fez:grief. So he’s one I’d think about in the day. I might play him TWAF for another decent price if he were to run in something like the Cleeve Hurdle.

It’ll be interesting to see what the capper does with him tomorrow too as the Pertemps was namechecked earlier in the year and could be an option still.

On the French form, whilst he’s not been over here, he did beat about everything Mullins had to throw at him on the snaff at Auteuil. So we do have a handle on his form more than we do some others from seasons gone by.

I've seen some comparisons with Gold Tweet. He’s rated 30lb higher than Gold Tweet was before his run in the Cleeve. I think we’re talking about a potential superstar here.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

He doesn't always get it right. He's a stubborn old goat at times...doesn't like being wrong.

Yep we all make mistakes
I just think that if it was so obvious he’s not a chaser they could find that out at home?
Surely he must have been schooling fine.
Anyway guess we will find out soon enough, his next entry maybe.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

AaronLad I do like Crambo and his weaving runs to the line … but … I don’t expect him to be smaller than 25/1 on the day. He could be of course, but I just don’t see it. Lisnagar Oscar went off 50/1 didn’t he (I backed him on trials day and let him run at the fez:grief. So he’s one I’d think about in the day. I might play him TWAF for another decent price if he were to run in something like the Cleeve Hurdle.

It’ll be interesting to see what the capper does with him tomorrow too as the Pertemps was namechecked earlier in the year and could be an option still.

On the French form, whilst he’s not been over here, he did beat about everything Mullins had to throw at him on the snaff at Auteuil. So we do have a handle on his form more than we do some others from seasons gone by.

I've seen some comparisons with Gold Tweet. He’s rated 30lb higher than Gold Tweet was before his run in the Cleeve. I think we’re talking about a potential superstar here.

If it’s the plan to run in the Pertemps, they had a good opportunity on Saturday, with how he was positioned during the race, but they chose to finish like a train making it rather obvious imo
After watching that I would be surprised if he’s not entered in a race like the long walk or Cleeve next time.

 

[AaronLad]

AaronLad I do like Crambo and his weaving runs to the line … but … I don’t expect him to be smaller than 25/1 on the day. He could be of course, but I just don’t see it. Lisnagar Oscar went off 50/1 didn’t he (I backed him on trials day and let him run at the fez:grief. So he’s one I’d think about in the day. I might play him TWAF for another decent price if he were to run in something like the Cleeve Hurdle.

It’ll be interesting to see what the capper does with him tomorrow too as the Pertemps was namechecked earlier in the year and could be an option still.

On the French form, whilst he’s not been over here, he did beat about everything Mullins had to throw at him on the snaff at Auteuil. So we do have a handle on his form more than we do some others from seasons gone by.

I've seen some comparisons with Gold Tweet. He’s rated 30lb higher than Gold Tweet was before his run in the Cleeve. I think we’re talking about a potential superstar here.

My post isn't supposed to be about whether crambo is a bet at the current price. It's the comments made about people making a case for him. and why there is actually a case for him.
The people that had attempted to get him onside were probably doing so @50/1+ with the wtaf bet.
His next entry will tell us where they're heading this season. I hope his next run is the long walk and not a pertemps qualifier.

I'd like to see theleme do it on a stiff, undulating track. he's already a superstar in france. i'm not doubting his ability to do it on a flat track over and over again.

 

[Exar Essay]

My post isn't supposed to be about whether crambo is a bet at the current price. It's the comments made about people making a case for him. and why there is actually a case for him.
The people that had attempted to get him onside were probably doing so @50/1+ with the wtaf bet.
His next entry will tell us where they're heading this season. I hope his next run is the long walk and not a pertemps qualifier.

I'd like to see theleme do it on a stiff, undulating track. he's already a superstar in france. i'm not doubting his ability to do it on a flat track over and over again.

I’m not suggesting it was the intent of your post, I was moving the conversation towards price which has to be a factor. I think he’s an I interesting contender so the thought naturally moves to his price. Do you think the long walk might come a little soon?

 

[AaronLad]

I’m not suggesting it was the intent of your post, I was moving the conversation towards price which has to be a factor. I think he’s an I interesting contender so the thought naturally moves to his price. Do you think the long walk might come a little soon?

23rd december, 4 full weeks, the way he finished his race off i'd say it would be fine, but you never know.

I don't think he's value at his current price, I was reluctant to take the 33's on him prior to saturday so I am in no rush to get him onside. But i'm certainly no less keen on him after saturday, i thought it was a very encouraging first try over 3m :encouragement:

 

[Zachx02]

Originally posted by Zachx02 View Post
For me if he was going to win the race he'd have won on Saturday and although the ride was crap(if paddy brennan was on instead i reckon he'd have won) if the horse is good enough to win a stayers he would have gone and won and would have needed to do so in an impressive fashion posting at least an RPR in the mid 150s for me to entertain it, but he could be one for the pertemps now, like alaphilpe for the trainer 2 years ago.

For me Theleme just wins, I remember putting him up in the roll ups thread in May when bet365 priced up the French CHurdle early and he was something stupid like 4-1 and ended up going off at 7-4 or something I believe, the form just adds up from that race and you can't say it isn't good form either and can't be used as you'd be saying all of the Mullins Battalion, Hermes Baie who he knocked off as Frances best hurdler, Flooring Porter and Feronily behind all didn't run to form which would just be doing anything to try and crab the performance and I don't believe we've even seen the best of him either as he's 6 and still progressing​


Lisnagar oscar was well beaten in saturdays race at haydock in the same season as which he won the stayers. it can and has been done.
Paisley park won the race by 1/2 length off 147, only 8lbs higher than what crambo ran off on saturday. it was a very similar run to crambos, finishing like a train and unlike crambo getting up in the last strides. The rpr's might be different but the performance was very similar.

Unfortunately crambo couldn't reach the 2 very well handicapped irish horses that had lightweights compared to the 11-10 he was carrying. I find it highly unlikely they'll go for the pertemps to be done like that again.
His best performance for me came in his win at sandown when he was ridden much more prominently, that was over 2m4f in heavy going, he stayed on very strongly up the sandown hill that day, being headed and battling back.
The french 6 year old who is a single figure price has never seen a hill, nevermind like the one he'll encounter at cheltenham. Both going downhill and coming back uphill.

In the stayers hurdle there's a lot of running in the last 7 and half furlongs, only 2 hurdles to jump in that distance.
In that sandown race i mention there was 2 hurdles omitted and also in his aintree win there was 4 hurdles omitted,
The run in at haydock from the back of the last is nearly 2f and this is where crambo was doing his best work.
The sandown win where he finished so well uphill.
It all points to him being very well suited to cheltenham and the stayers.​


Studfarm it's quite easy to crab somebody who's makng a case for a horse, especially when that horse has just been beaten.
What i'd like to hear is why you don't think crambo can win the stayers?
And zach why are you so sure theleme will just win, having never raced in britain?

Paisley park's win was 15 lbs better on RPRs than crambos run, that's a lot of improvement needing to be shown and lisnagar oscar was practically tailed off in the race and his RPR in the stayers was the only sub 160 performance in the last decade, Theleme is already producing near 170 RPRs whilst not even being asked a question in France and those would be good enough to win 8 of the last stayers renewals and you can probably get a few more lbs out of that if he was off the bridle and asked for a bit more

 

[AaronLad]

Paisley park's win was 15 lbs better on RPRs than crambos run, that's a lot of improvement needing to be shown and lisnagar oscar was practically tailed off in the race and his RPR in the stayers was the only sub 160 performance in the last decade, Theleme is already producing near 170 RPRs whilst not even being asked a question in France and those would be good enough to win 8 of the last stayers renewals and you can probably get a few more lbs out of that if he was off the bridle and asked for a bit more

As you seem to be such an expert on rpr's, could you please explain why crambos rpr is 141? with the rpr's given to the other finishers in the top 4 he should be a minimum of 143, and with such an eyecatching performance itt can surely be marked up a lb or 2

 

[Zachx02]

As you seem to be such an expert on rpr's, could you please explain why crambos rpr is 141? with the rpr's given to the other finishers in the top 4 he should be a minimum of 143, and with such an eyecatching performance itt can surely be marked up a lb or 2

I guess you could mark it up as he was finishing like a train and was the best horse in the race and lost due to the ride but like I said in the first post, if he was to be a contender he'd have won by at least a few lengths in my opinion even with the bad ride

 

[DenmanSacre]

I'm not sure the two Irish horses were that well handicapped. Gowel Road finished 2 lengths back from Crambo and Bold Endeavour another 2 lengths back. At the adjusted weights, Crambo only just finished in front of those two.

If the front 3 were so well handicapped, the front 2 should have ran away from the rest of the field with the rides they were given. You can give Crambo some credit as he has come from a fair way back in a race that suited those who were prominent.

It was Gowel Road's first run for over a year and his first try at 3 miles. He went off 2nd fav in a Coral Cup a couple of years ago. Could easily argue he will come on for that run more than Crambo and there's not much between him and Crambo on Saturdays running on literal form value. He wouldn't be anywhere near my thinking for the Stayers and so Crambo needs to show a lot more if he is stepped into grade 1 company next time.

As for Theleme, we aren't going to see him at Cheltenham until the Festival. His price will hold or lengthen if we see a horse win one of the grade 1s well. If Teahupoo runs Impaire et Passe close, he could go into fav. If you haven't backed him yet, then I'd say you're better off waiting for NRNB now. That will probably come out early January for the championship races and that gives cover just in case they change their mind on bringing him over. Price probably won't be far from what it is now.

 

[Benjy23]

I still think Buddy One is the handicap improver to watch out for in the Stayers. But the price hasn't gone out as I'd hoped. So I may have to make the move.

Someone put me off on RPRs please. :beguiled:

 

[Outlaw]

I still think Buddy One is the handicap improver to watch out for in the Stayers. But the price hasn't gone out as I'd hoped. So I may have to make the move.

Someone put me off on RPRs please. :beguiled:

Very solid run lto, his next race is what should stop you pulling the trigger right now as surely very little chance in the Hatton’s grace but that’s obvs very different to the Stayers come March. He’s on the up & certainly worth entertaining.

 

[AaronLad]

I'm not sure the two Irish horses were that well handicapped. Gowel Road finished 2 lengths back from Crambo and Bold Endeavour another 2 lengths back. At the adjusted weights, Crambo only just finished in front of those two.

If the front 3 were so well handicapped, the front 2 should have ran away from the rest of the field with the rides they were given. You can give Crambo some credit as he has come from a fair way back in a race that suited those who were prominent.

It was Gowel Road's first run for over a year and his first try at 3 miles. He went off 2nd fav in a Coral Cup a couple of years ago. Could easily argue he will come on for that run more than Crambo and there's not much between him and Crambo on Saturdays running on literal form value. He wouldn't be anywhere near my thinking for the Stayers and so Crambo needs to show a lot more if he is stepped into grade 1 company next time.

As for Theleme, we aren't going to see him at Cheltenham until the Festival. His price will hold or lengthen if we see a horse win one of the grade 1s well. If Teahupoo runs Impaire et Passe close, he could go into fav. If you haven't backed him yet, then I'd say you're better off waiting for NRNB now. That will probably come out early January for the championship races and that gives cover just in case they change their mind on bringing him over. Price probably won't be far from what it is now.

slate lanes 2 previous hurdle runs he won at bangor off 103, he won by 2 1/2 lengths and was raised 10lbs.
He then won by 2 1/4 lengths of 113, he was raised 14lbs.
He's just won on saturday by 1 1/2 lengths.
My point here being that just beacause the winning distance isn't 10+lengths doesn't mean he wasn't very well handicapped, and might still be well handicapped after re-assessment.
The runner up in his first race for willie mullins at a trip he's never run over on a racecourse, producing that performance i think he was well handicapped and probably still is.

Take these 2 out and crambo has beaten the rest you mention a shade cosily in the end.
Paisley park wasn't beating superstars in the same race by half a length en route to the stayers.

I'm sorry if i'm boring people but felt your response deserved a reply.

 

[Rooster Booster]

Does anybody know the intended plan for Theleme between now and March. I note he has always had split seasons and has never run between November and March for this trainer. Is he done now until March? If not that would mean quite a change to a training schedule that looks rather formulaic.

 

[Studfarm254]

It’s a very easy question that. You just have to look at his form. He’s beaten Santos blue and knockanore. Then he’s finished behind slate lane and fine margin. He’s raced in 2 average grade 1s and beaten out of sight. In a proper grade 1 at Cheltenham with the best irish horses he won’t see which way they went. He’s definitely not a grade 1 horse, far from it.

Originally posted by Zachx02 View Post
For me if he was going to win the race he'd have won on Saturday and although the ride was crap(if paddy brennan was on instead i reckon he'd have won) if the horse is good enough to win a stayers he would have gone and won and would have needed to do so in an impressive fashion posting at least an RPR in the mid 150s for me to entertain it, but he could be one for the pertemps now, like alaphilpe for the trainer 2 years ago.

For me Theleme just wins, I remember putting him up in the roll ups thread in May when bet365 priced up the French CHurdle early and he was something stupid like 4-1 and ended up going off at 7-4 or something I believe, the form just adds up from that race and you can't say it isn't good form either and can't be used as you'd be saying all of the Mullins Battalion, Hermes Baie who he knocked off as Frances best hurdler, Flooring Porter and Feronily behind all didn't run to form which would just be doing anything to try and crab the performance and I don't believe we've even seen the best of him either as he's 6 and still progressing​


Lisnagar oscar was well beaten in saturdays race at haydock in the same season as which he won the stayers. it can and has been done.
Paisley park won the race by 1/2 length off 147, only 8lbs higher than what crambo ran off on saturday. it was a very similar run to crambos, finishing like a train and unlike crambo getting up in the last strides. The rpr's might be different but the performance was very similar.

Unfortunately crambo couldn't reach the 2 very well handicapped irish horses that had lightweights compared to the 11-10 he was carrying. I find it highly unlikely they'll go for the pertemps to be done like that again.
His best performance for me came in his win at sandown when he was ridden much more prominently, that was over 2m4f in heavy going, he stayed on very strongly up the sandown hill that day, being headed and battling back.
The french 6 year old who is a single figure price has never seen a hill, nevermind like the one he'll encounter at cheltenham. Both going downhill and coming back uphill.

In the stayers hurdle there's a lot of running in the last 7 and half furlongs, only 2 hurdles to jump in that distance.
In that sandown race i mention there was 2 hurdles omitted and also in his aintree win there was 4 hurdles omitted,
The run in at haydock from the back of the last is nearly 2f and this is where crambo was doing his best work.
The sandown win where he finished so well uphill.
It all points to him being very well suited to cheltenham and the stayers.​


Studfarm it's quite easy to crab somebody who's makng a case for a horse, especially when that horse has just been beaten.
What i'd like to hear is why you don't think crambo can win the stayers?
And zach why are you so sure theleme will just win, having never raced in britain?

 

[AaronLad]

It’s a very easy question that. You just have to look at his form. He’s beaten Santos blue and knockanore. Then he’s finished behind slate lane and fine margin. He’s raced in 2 average grade 1s and beaten out of sight. In a proper grade 1 at Cheltenham with the best irish horses he won’t see which way they went. He’s definitely not a grade 1 horse, far from it.

Thanks for your excellent insight, and clearing that one up

 

[Rooster Booster]

slate lanes 2 previous hurdle runs he won at bangor off 103, he won by 2 1/2 lengths and was raised 10lbs.
He then won by 2 1/4 lengths of 113, he was raised 14lbs.
He's just won on saturday by 1 1/2 lengths.
My point here being that just beacause the winning distance isn't 10+lengths doesn't mean he wasn't very well handicapped, and might still be well handicapped after re-assessment.
The runner up in his first race for willie mullins at a trip he's never run over on a racecourse, producing that performance i think he was well handicapped and probably still is.

Take these 2 out and crambo has beaten the rest you mention a shade cosily in the end.
Paisley park wasn't beating superstars in the same race by half a length en route to the stayers.

I'm sorry if i'm boring people but felt your response deserved a reply.

No I don’t find it boring but I think the reality is you are very resiliently putting a case for a horse priced at 25-1 who on paper has an awful lot to find. Rightly or wrongly your case for the defence so to speak is simply a lot harder to make than the case for the prosecution. I for one think you have made your case very well and I don’t think there’s anything else you could have said that you havent. The prosecution’s case unfortunately is just saying ‘yes but he has to much to find’ in a few different yet identical ways. You are not claiming he is value but you are suggesting he has more upward potential than he is being given credit for by some. This argument imo you have won hands down and I don’t think you need to add anything else. The rest as they say will be down to the horse. I’m sure you will find your angle in soon enough and I think you and others deserved better from the other day.

 

[Studfarm254]

​

:distant:

Nothing wrong with people trying to find big priced winners, looking for different angles.

If you disagree, perhaps something more constructive, or here's an idea.... put a case up yourself for what does win?

I’ve already put up home by the lee. It’s more of an each way shout and a value perspective. Can see him running on up the hill through beaten horses and into frame rather than actually winning it. Will need something to set a break neck pace though and without Porter that may not happen. It’s a race I’m struggling with atm and don’t have any strong views. I’d say it’s unlikely the ground will be in Teahupoo’s favour as much as it was last year and he failed then so I’d be avoiding him at the prices too. Would like to see Irish point in here but given it’s the same connections as teahupoo I can see them waiting for aintree. Thelme obviously looks good but without a run over here and no Cheltenham form the price is bit skinny for me certainly this far out.