2024 Stayers Hurdle

[AaronLad]

No I don’t find it boring but I think the reality is you are very resiliently putting a case for a horse priced at 25-1 who on paper has an awful lot to find. Rightly or wrongly your case for the defence so to speak is simply a lot harder to make than the case for the prosecution. I for one think you have made your case very well and I don’t think there’s anything else you could have said that you havent. The prosecution’s case unfortunately is just saying ‘yes but he has to much to find’ in a few different yet identical ways. You are not claiming he is value but you are suggesting he has more upward potential than he is being given credit for by some. This argument imo you have won hands down and I don’t think you need to add anything else. The rest as they say will be down to the horse. I’m sure you will find your angle in soon enough and I think you and others deserved better from the other day.

Thank you, you totally understand my point of view with this horse.

 

[Studfarm254]

Thanks for your excellent insight, and clearing that one up

Not a bother Aaron. Here all week if you need anything else

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I've yet to offer my opinion on these 'unexposed handicappers' going for the Stayers, but ever since Flooring Porter it seems like year in year out we have to try and find the unexposed type.

Just for some context, I went through some of last seasons Stayers thread and by page 10 I had the following list of these unexposed types:

Might I
Langer Dan
Thedevilscoachman
Walking On Air

This list is laughable enough in itself, despite some fairly good cases made by enough respected members of the forum.

Then we had some graded winners, but also unexposed at the trip:

Bob Olinger (this was mostly myself :highly_amused
Zanahiyr

None of the above even made it to the race.

Then we have somehorses who did make it to the race but were duds (or had excuses :sleeping:

Blazing Khal
Teahupoo (probably harsh as he placed, but personally felt he had his optimum conditions and still didn't win, against two exposed types).


I'm not entirely sure what my point is here, apart from I have little interest in these unexposed handicapping types until they've proved it at a higher level. I'm not after excuses either, so the fact Crambo could not capitalise in a handicap race against seriously inferior horses to what he would likely face in a Stayers Hurdle, means he's not on my list at all for the race. FWIW very interested in him for the Pertemps should he get qualified. Buddy One at least won his race and therefore could be on an upward trajectory. Questions over what he beat, obviously, but that's expected as it was a handicap. He recorded significantly higher RPR's than Crambo too, just as a side by side comparison.​

 

[TigerRolllllll]

I've yet to offer my opinion on these 'unexposed handicappers' going for the Stayers, but ever since Flooring Porter it seems like year in year out we have to try and find the unexposed type.

Just for some context, I went through some of last seasons Stayers thread and by page 10 I had the following list of these unexposed types:

Might I
Langer Dan
Thedevilscoachman
Walking On Air

This list is laughable enough in itself, despite some fairly good cases made by enough respected members of the forum.

Then we had some graded winners, but also unexposed at the trip:

Bob Olinger (this was mostly myself :highly_amused
Zanahiyr

None of the above even made it to the race.

Then we have somehorses who did make it to the race but were duds (or had excuses :sleeping:

Blazing Khal
Teahupoo (probably harsh as he placed, but personally felt he had his optimum conditions and still didn't win, against two exposed types).


I'm not entirely sure what my point is here, apart from I have little interest in these unexposed handicapping types until they've proved it at a higher level. I'm not after excuses either, so the fact Crambo could not capitalise in a handicap race against seriously inferior horses to what he would likely face in a Stayers Hurdle, means he's not on my list at all for the race. FWIW very interested in him for the Pertemps should he get qualified. Buddy One at least won his race and therefore could be on an upward trajectory. Questions over what he beat, obviously, but that's expected as it was a handicap. He recorded significantly higher RPR's than Crambo too, just as a side by side comparison.​

Agree totally

Only point I would add tho is how bad the ride was on Teahupoo…..,Davy was not fit then & I think had Jack ridden him, he may well have won albeit narrowly….but prices & discussion be v different. He also was only 6

 

[Benjy23]

I mean there was a 33/1 winner and a 40/1 2nd in the race last year. There's no star in the division, ignoring the potential of the French horse at least. And the defending champion will be a 12yo! There's every reason to be looking for something slightly left field here.

 

[EnvoiAlien]

All this talk of the French stayer, I remember Kasbah Bliss being bombproof as well.
There's another I can't remember, was winning everything in France so they brought it to Cheltenham for a sighter, ran like it was going round Auteuil giving up the car park to no one before being pulled up and never crossing the channel again.
If anyone can name that horse I'd be grateful as I can't recall who it was, would've been around 2007 / 2012 and yes I'm being lazy not looking for myself.

Edit- Gemix...wonder if Gold Tweet will ever return to the festival as well.

 

[TigerRolllllll]

I mean there was a 33/1 winner and a 40/1 2nd in the race last year. There's no star in the division, ignoring the potential of the French horse at least. And the defending champion will be a 12yo! There's every reason to be looking for something slightly left field here.

Totally agree…..and def open to ideas

But they would still need to run mid 160s RPR even in poor race (SDB was 164 last year) …,so question is who might have that in them

- Buddy One run 154 & unexposed so seems poss
- Crambo only 142 …so ??
- Balboa 152 (with Mares 7) & unecposed
- Sir Ger 157 as novice

Hopefully be more ideas on here as season progresses

 

[DenmanSacre]

slate lanes 2 previous hurdle runs he won at bangor off 103, he won by 2 1/2 lengths and was raised 10lbs.
He then won by 2 1/4 lengths of 113, he was raised 14lbs.
He's just won on saturday by 1 1/2 lengths.
My point here being that just beacause the winning distance isn't 10+lengths doesn't mean he wasn't very well handicapped, and might still be well handicapped after re-assessment.
The runner up in his first race for willie mullins at a trip he's never run over on a racecourse, producing that performance i think he was well handicapped and probably still is.

Take these 2 out and crambo has beaten the rest you mention a shade cosily in the end.
Paisley park wasn't beating superstars in the same race by half a length en route to the stayers.

I'm sorry if i'm boring people but felt your response deserved a reply.

I don't think Crambo is the worst shout. As I said he made good progress in a race that favoured those prominent.

But what do you think Teahupoo would have done in that race off 139?

Crambo was given a RPR of 141 on Saturday. He's got two stone to reach the same RPR as Teahupoo and Theleme, who could still both be improving. He's got a stone and a half to get to Marie's Rock level. Irish Point still has improvement in him and hasn't been up to 3m yet. Champ Kiely could potentially go up in trip. Sir Gerhard could go there.

Looks like a decent renewal so far and so Crambo needs to improve fast to be competitive.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I mean there was a 33/1 winner and a 40/1 2nd in the race last year. There's no star in the division, ignoring the potential of the French horse at least. And the defending champion will be a 12yo! There's every reason to be looking for something slightly left field here.

Absolutely, but I'd be concentrating on those that have either run at the festival before or graded types, the likes of Sir Gerhard, returning Home By The Lee or Marie's Rock, over a Crambo, every day of the week. Buddy One I'd be much more interested in that Crambo too.

 

[Benjy23]

Very solid run lto, his next race is what should stop you pulling the trigger right now as surely very little chance in the Hatton’s grace but that’s obvs very different to the Stayers come March. He’s on the up & certainly worth entertaining.

Fair one. Not sure what else is likely to run in the Hattons Grace. If IEP returns there I'd be very concerned like. State Man surely won't run.

 

[Brooksie]

Springwell Bay has potential, bought for big money, slow start novice hurdling but he could be one that improves this term. Owner and Trainer have targeted the stayer before with Black Jack Ketchum. His latest win puts him at 144rpr so would need to step up. One that potentially could though. Interesting to see where Jonjo goes with him next. Possibly Relkeel and then the Cleeve.

 

[FinalFurlong91]

Agree totally

Only point I would add tho is how bad the ride was on Teahupoo…..,Davy was not fit then & I think had Jack ridden him, he may well have won albeit narrowly….but prices & discussion be v different. He also was only 6

Teahupoo was the best horse in the race last year

All of the jockeys who sat that far out the back disconnected from the front group of 5 had an absolute mare

Had davy, paul, philip byrnes etc sat on the heels of sire du berlais and ashdale bob not 6-8lengths behind them Teahupoo would've won

9 horses finished the race

6th, 7th, 8th and 9th were all held up in rear and beaten between 11 and 34 lengths

Teahupoo was held up in rear and beaten 3/4 of a length

He's run completely against the pace bias and Davy zig zagged his way down the straight

Hopefully he loses to Impaire et passe in the hattons grace and we get an extra couple of points on his price

 

[TigerRolllllll]

Teahupoo was the best horse in the race last year

All of the jockeys who sat that far out the back disconnected from the front group of 5 had an absolute mare

Had davy, paul, philip byrnes etc sat on the heels of sire du berlais and ashdale bob not 6-8lengths behind them Teahupoo would've won

9 horses finished the race

6th, 7th, 8th and 9th were all held up in rear and beaten between 11 and 34 lengths

Teahupoo was held up in rear and beaten 3/4 of a length

He's run completely against the pace bias and Davy zig zagged his way down the straight

Hopefully he loses to Impaire et passe in the hattons grace and we get an extra couple of points on his price

Prob a win HG & Stayers market as other option

 

[Fouroverthrutwo]

Absolutely, but I'd be concentrating on those that have either run at the festival before or graded types, the likes of Sir Gerhard, returning Home By The Lee or Marie's Rock, over a Crambo, every day of the week. Buddy One I'd be much more interested in that Crambo too.

I really like Sir Gerhard but I don't think he stays 3m well enough. If you look at his run in the BANC last year he was in a good position just before 2 out but then faded really quickly to finish a very tired 9th. I'm struggling to see which festival race he could win to be honest (maybe a Ryanair if he gets his jumping together??).

 

[Lobos]

I really like Sir Gerhard but I don't think he stays 3m well enough. If you look at his run in the BANC last year he was in a good position just before 2 out but then faded really quickly to finish a very tired 9th. I'm struggling to see which festival race he could win to be honest (maybe a Ryanair if he gets his jumping together??).

His Ballymore win ooozed Stayer. It was like a swamp that day and he powered home

Really can't judge him on his BANC run as he had a rushed preparation, only one chase run and clearly hates chasing.

IMO he'd stay all day back over Hurdles.

 

[Outlaw]

Springwell Bay has potential, bought for big money, slow start novice hurdling but he could be one that improves this term. Owner and Trainer have targeted the stayer before with Black Jack Ketchum. His latest win puts him at 144rpr so would need to step up. One that potentially could though. Interesting to see where Jonjo goes with him next. Possibly Relkeel and then the Cleeve.

I say this as someone who backed the last day & revealed in Mr Carter going balls deep in Safer Gambling week(see stupid Twitter video). His price Vs what Buddy One did on that card makes Buddy one the bet every day of the week & twice on a Sundays. This lad outclassed 120 horses after being G1 pitched the last day. No chance in a Stayers, none !

 

[opatcho]

I've gone it, I've backed Sir Gerhard for the Stayers
Willie name checked this race, a potential target if he didnt jump well, and .... we all know what happened on his first appearance

His prep last year was interrupted, and its questionable whether fencing is for him

BANC, put that down to fitness and he was really slow over the first few - understandable considering that was his second chase start
He ran a fine race next time out, although some will question the form line
He blew up at Punchestown - a track he has always struggled with! Hates it there for some reason

Appreicate it just ran a top race in the John Durkan, a race where he normally sticks his Ryanair horse. Allaho appears to be fit and healthy. Ryanair.

I cant it taking long before mullins sticks this guy back over hurdles
20/1 PP backed

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I really like Sir Gerhard but I don't think he stays 3m well enough. If you look at his run in the BANC last year he was in a good position just before 2 out but then faded really quickly to finish a very tired 9th. I'm struggling to see which festival race he could win to be honest (maybe a Ryanair if he gets his jumping together??).

I wouldn't judge him on staying thr trip based on any Chase run, but as Lobos pointed out it might be best to judge him on that Ballymore win where he ploughed through the mud. Looked every inch a staying type that day.

 

[Brooksie]

I say this as someone who backed the last day & revealed in Mr Carter going balls deep in Safer Gambling week(see stupid Twitter video). His price Vs what Buddy One did on that card makes Buddy one the bet every day of the week & twice on a Sundays. This lad outclassed 120 horses after being G1 pitched the last day. No chance in a Stayers, none !

Interesting take...although comparing the two is kind of funny. A line through Fennor's Cross would have Springwell Bay needing to find 4 lengths on Buddy One and well.. seeing as the jockey wouldn't be able to claim 7lb if they decide to keep him onboard we wouldn't be that far off would we? I hope you haven't backed Buddy One.. because essentially you're saying your bets in the bin already.

 

[Lobos]

I've gone it, I've backed Sir Gerhard for the Stayers
Willie name checked this race, a potential target if he didnt jump well, and .... we all know what happened on his first appearance

His prep last year was interrupted, and its questionable whether fencing is for him

BANC, put that down to fitness and he was really slow over the first few - understandable considering that was his second chase start
He ran a fine race next time out, although some will question the form line
He blew up at Punchestown - a track he has always struggled with! Hates it there for some reason

Appreicate it just ran a top race in the John Durkan, a race where he normally sticks his Ryanair horse. Allaho appears to be fit and healthy. Ryanair.

I cant it taking long before mullins sticks this guy back over hurdles
20/1 PP backed

He was injured during the race at Punchestown as well. Deep cut to his cannon bone.

Currently 7/2 3rd fav for Xmas Hurdle. Willie has 3 in it and he's his shortest priced horse. The other two are Monkfish and Asterion Forlonge.