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2017 Stayers Hurdle

Had a bit of the 12s on offer for Ballyoptic as could be 7/2 the field after it beats Harry on Saturday. Also , backed it at 4s for Clleve Hurdle with PP
 
If Ballyoptic can stand up he has every chance, he's certainly the e/w play for Sat
 
So another win from UNWIMH at the weekend. I checked oddschecker an hour or so after the race and I was shocked he was still available at 2/1. That's been nibbled in today and now best priced 15/8 which i still think is very big.

Each time the horse runs the more I like him. He oozed class throughout the race (i originally had him down as more guts than class but not now).

Now i'm debating whether to hold off now and wait on the day or go in again?

He's now won the 3 best trails for this race with ease beating all UK challengers several times. So the UK challengers are covered. Onto the Irish - Snow Falcon and Clondaw Warrior I think are below the class to feature in this. Faugheen now is Champion Hurdle or bust in festival targets, and VVM too would surely be Mares with the option of stepping in for Faugheen. All that leaves is Jezki.
Despite their good relationship i would be stunned if Geraghty was to get off this horse now and the more I look at the CH picture I think Jezki will be going there instead.

So take out Jezki, Faugheen (CH or bust), VVM (Mares or CH) and his price will surely get shorter. (even if Jezki ran i'd be with the fav)

I still think Ballyoptic has place claims at 20/1 but if he was ever to beat the fav yesterday was the day, NTD is flying and had already had 2 wins on the card and more importantly for a horse who has had some jumping issues the removal of the last 2 hurdles and the huge run in would have been in his favour

UNWIMH is an absolute certainty for me

(with the forecast of Shaneshill to follow him home :triumphant:)
 
jono said:
So another win from UNWIMH at the weekend. I checked oddschecker an hour or so after the race and I was shocked he was still available at 2/1. That's been nibbled in today and now best priced 15/8 which i still think is very big.

Each time the horse runs the more I like him. He oozed class throughout the race (i originally had him down as more guts than class but not now).

Now i'm debating whether to hold off now and wait on the day or go in again?

He's now won the 3 best trails for this race with ease beating all UK challengers several times. So the UK challengers are covered. Onto the Irish - Snow Falcon and Clondaw Warrior I think are below the class to feature in this. Faugheen now is Champion Hurdle or bust in festival targets, and VVM too would surely be Mares with the option of stepping in for Faugheen. All that leaves is Jezki.
Despite their good relationship i would be stunned if Geraghty was to get off this horse now and the more I look at the CH picture I think Jezki will be going there instead.

So take out Jezki, Faugheen (CH or bust), VVM (Mares or CH) and his price will surely get shorter. (even if Jezki ran i'd be with the fav)

I still think Ballyoptic has place claims at 20/1 but if he was ever to beat the fav yesterday was the day, NTD is flying and had already had 2 wins on the card and more importantly for a horse who has had some jumping issues the removal of the last 2 hurdles and the huge run in would have been in his favour

UNWIMH is an absolute certainty for me

(with the forecast of Shaneshill to follow him home :triumphant:)
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I was disappointed with Ballyoptic yesterday, I thought he had a lot in his favour yesterday and couldn't really find any excuses . I still suspect this horse has a big performance in it, I just sense NTD really rates this horse and something will click on one day, but the excuses are starting to run out. At the same time, I do wonder if they are riding it a little aggressively and maybe dickie is not the ideal fit for the horse.

As for Harry, I still think something will beat it come the stayers. Taking its form at face value and he should be shorter tha he currently is, but it seems there are a few like me who just can't quite believe the value of it.
The competition is starting to dry up in the UK and main threat may now come from Ireland, but I just have this feeling something will turn in a top performance on the day to deny it.
 
I think you'd have to make the comparisson with Thistlecrack last year, in that he did absolutely everything he could.

I know you remember Thistlecrack got boosted to 2/1 the weekend before (betfair preview). I think Thistlecrack was general 6/4, 5/4 and even in the weeks before...

I think Thistlecrack looked classier than UNWIMH has if you compared them run-by-run, and the difference in price from Thistlecrack last season to UNWIMH is reflective of that? .....

You are right that he will shorten when targets for others become clear, and he has NOTHING to fear from Ireland (unless Faugheen ran which is unlikely and that is only considering raw ability not prep!).... if VVM did run she would take a chunk out of the market... you'd probably still get 2/1 on the day with her in it?


I won't go in again, but I took 25s the day they declared he was going hurdling... In a few multiples too. FOr me, it is just a sit back, wait for *no news* and hope that things go right on the day... I would go in again now if I wasn't already in a good spot... if that helps?
 
That helps me Kev, i've been in a position like many others that I could just see something beating it but now i'm not so sure. I was on Faugheen but thats non-existent now. No other bets in the market so I think its time I got stuck in on him
 
You're not alone Zoowraa in thinking he's vulnerable and he'll get beat. Personally I can't see it. Especially when you actually go through the opponents. I think a few months back you could say there may be something to come along particularly when there was a strong chance of a Ricci runner in there but that seems to have evaporated in the last week or so. I just struggle to see who can put up this top performance to beat him? Would be interested if you have a fancy who that could be?

Kev - definitely agree with you that Thistlecrack looked a classier horse last year. He's on another level to UNWIMH but I had the same surprise at the prices that year and how TC wasn't a much shorter price. So i'm on at 5/1 so far. Compared to the nice 25's you have, I would certainly hang back if i had that and some multi's and then likely go in again on the day. Think i'm going to top up the 5's :triumphant:

And to think this is coming from someone that until the long walk hurdle at Ascot in December didn't fancy the horse for the race!
 
When a horse has won 8 in a row, has STRONG C&D form, has beaten every rival in this country more than once... and you're getting almost 2/1 ... for decent connections with one of the best Cheltenham jockeys around... 15/8 is a knocking good bet. All in. Bring on the doubters... :devilish:
 
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Kevloaf said:
When a horse has won 8 in a row, had C&D form, has beaten every rival in this country more than once... and you're getting almost 2/1 ... for decent connections with one of the best Cheltenham jockeys around... 15/8 is a knocking good bet. All in. Bring on the doubters... :devilish:
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Just 1 serious contender to beat now, if she goes for this race and that is VVM. Crab her 2m race all you like, I'm not buying that she had a cough either, she looked like a horse who had been trained for a longer trip, and her best run in 3 this season was over 3m in the Christmas Hurdle, defeating likely rivals in this race on the way.

I love this mare, she is very much a travelling horse, and she's not always looked the most keen to do much when in front but the further she goes the better IMO, and at 8/1 to say she makes the race is big enough for me to be interested. Also in at 12/1 earlier in the season.
 
jono said:
Right i've stuck the wedding fund on him! :very_drunk::triumphant:
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When is your wedding again... Mine is August.... going to be a VERY quite 5 months of saving for me if the festival doesn't go well......

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Or I could get Don Poli to pay for it? :triumphant:



***edit - in response to CorD***
I agree that VVM would be a danger. I'd take the 6/1 NRNB available though.... I do have a niggle that she'll turn up.... and I absolutely don't want her to. I staked 8 points in her for any race at 11/4 thinking the Mares was a shoe-in....
 
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I really dont think she'll turn up in the Mares. This is her target I think unless Faugheen gets pulled out at which I think she takes the Champion route
 
jono said:
You're not alone Zoowraa in thinking he's vulnerable and he'll get beat. Personally I can't see it. Especially when you actually go through the opponents. I think a few months back you could say there may be something to come along particularly when there was a strong chance of a Ricci runner in there but that seems to have evaporated in the last week or so. I just struggle to see who can put up this top performance to beat him? Would be interested if you have a fancy who that could be?

Kev - definitely agree with you that Thistlecrack looked a classier horse last year. He's on another level to UNWIMH but I had the same surprise at the prices that year and how TC wasn't a much shorter price. So i'm on at 5/1 so far. Compared to the nice 25's you have, I would certainly hang back if i had that and some multi's and then likely go in again on the day. Think i'm going to top up the 5's :triumphant:

And to think this is coming from someone that until the long walk hurdle at Ascot in December didn't fancy the horse for the race!
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I have to concede the opponents are running out to be honest. Its looking like it will have to come from Ireland and if I had to name one I would probably say Shaneshill at present.
Just something about Harry does not convince me, I think it's a cert to be placed but I just feel something will be fully tuned up to 100% on the day and get the better of him.
Key point though, he keeps proving me wrong so far and may well do again!
 
Zoowraa said:
I have to concede the opponents are running out to be honest. Its looking like it will have to come from Ireland and if I had to name one I would probably say Shaneshill at present.
Just something about Harry does not convince me, I think it's a cert to be placed but I just feel something will be fully tuned up to 100% on the day and get the better of him.
Key point though, he keeps proving me wrong so far and may well do again!
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I agree Zoowraa, his seasonal debut was his most convincing win for me but I can't help but feel Snow Falcon would have had something to say about the result had he not fallen, not to mention he was giving UNWIMH 4lb at the time too, something he won't have to do come March. Snow Falcon has since been beat by VVM off the weights they will carry in the race, and was in trouble a long way from home compared with her, but we know she travels better than most anyway.

I can't knock UNWIMH he's beat everything this country has to offer, but I don't think it's as clear cut as many think, provided VVM runs in this race, if she doesn't they may as well give it to him now :)
 
Kevloaf said:
When is your wedding again... Mine is August.... going to be a VERY quite 5 months of saving for me if the festival doesn't go well......
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Haha!! Yeah i know the feeling. Mine's in June, pretty much 3 months after the festival...The wedding should be covered...might be honeymooning in a tent if the festival goes badly though :highly_amused:
 
Cole Harden showed a bit more spark at the weekend...ground far from ideal for him too.
 
What do people make of the 2m entry for VVM at the weekend? When she also had the chance to run over 3miles originally?

Personally i'd say it's now 90% chance she runs in the Mares, with only the fact it's Willie Mullins adding that doubt.
I'd still 100% side with the fav if she lines up too.

Snow Falcon - certainly was the horse to take out the race at Newbury but I think he's now had 2 decent chances to show what he's about since. I know he was giving weight to Shaneshill last time out and didn't get beat by far but I didn't ever feel he'd win the race at any point and think he was well held.
 
I'm not convinced UKWIMH was extended at the weekend, the proximity of Cole Harden and co suggests Geraghty didn't get properly into his horse, I could be wrong but it all looked a little effortless to me, came there cruising hit the front and stayed on well.
You don't expect these stayers to have tremendous acceleration, the good ones grind their way to the front and battle to the line, Thistlecrack probably the classiest of winners I can remember, even Big Bucks never really put distance between his field.

So on the face of it Cole Harden and West Approach ran well, but I came away with the feeling they were a little flattered to finish as close as they did, so I am surprised he was only clipped to 7/4.
Looking at the betting for the race half of the first 20 in the betting won't run, Shaneshill worthy second fav if he goes but who next ?

I'm firmly now of the view they're all exposed horses and that something will have to happen to the fav for anything else to prevail....
 
Jezki could do him for toe in a tactical race but UKWIMH a worthy favourite who has won all the usual trials.
 
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