General Chat

[ComplyOrDie]

Might not be for Everyone , but i watched the youtube podcast -Racing Post - Johnny Dineen vs Paul Nicholls .
D.J. and J.D went to Paul Nicholls yard , to chat . if you have an hour spare .:lemo:.

I watched it last night, and really enjoyed it.

I've seen plenty on social media giving JD stick about Shishkin too, like they've never been wrong in their lives :highly_amused:

 

[Exar Essay]

I watched it last night, and really enjoyed it.

I've seen plenty on social media giving JD stick about Shishkin too, like they've never been wrong in their lives :highly_amused:

That bloke is comedy gold. But my god the number of horses he's written off who've bolted up NTO :applouse: That video is quality though. PN went up in my estimations too. Other than naming CH as his nap of the week like he's a 6/1 shot :biggrin-new:

 

[ComplyOrDie]

That bloke is comedy gold. But my god the number of horses he's written off who've bolted up NTO :applouse:

Yeah, I agree, but at least he's consistent with his approach. If they've had issues and run stinkers he doesn't want anything to do with them which is fair enough. I guess it was more of a gamble hoping, say, Shishkin, will be back to his best and appreciate the step up in trip. I actually disagreed with him over Shishkin, as per my bet, but I wouldn't be giving him pelters for being wrong about a horse in a game that is based on opinions :highly_amused:

 

[BigChaang]

Yeah . , I thought it was a good watch ., And like you say , Easy to be Judgemental after the Event .
I don't imagine Johnny Dineen loses any sleep ., onwards and upwards to the next one ....

 

[riccirich]

Yeah, I agree, but at least he's consistent with his approach. If they've had issues and run stinkers he doesn't want anything to do with them which is fair enough. I guess it was more of a gamble hoping, say, Shishkin, will be back to his best and appreciate the step up in trip. I actually disagreed with him over Shishkin, as per my bet, but I wouldn't be giving him pelters for being wrong about a horse in a game that is based on opinions :highly_amused:

I wouldn’t say he deserves stick for getting any horse wrong, everyone does from time to time, but it’s his approach of just writing off horses who have a stinker that is just wrong imo. You have to judge each horse on its own merits, when horses have a bad run when they bleed that is an issue that we know can reappear again and again, but if the issue was a defibrillating heart for example, we’ve seen time and time again that horses are usually fine in their next run and it doesn’t occur again, so taking a blanket approach to all horses who throw in a bad run is just not very clever imo. He would have stopped backing vautour, sir gerhard, paisley park, sprinter sacre, shishkin, Dysart dynamo, bravemansgame, Marie’s rock, Epatante, big bucks, stattler, istabraq, apples jade, to name a very small few, pretty early in their careers after one bad run, despite them coming right back to form straight after.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I wouldn’t say he deserves stick for getting any horse wrong, everyone does from time to time, but it’s his approach of just writing off horses who have a stinker that is just wrong imo. You have to judge each horse on its own merits, when horses have a bad run when they bleed that is an issue that we know can reappear again and again, but if the issue was a defibrillating heart for example, we’ve seen time and time again that horses are usually fine in their next run and it doesn’t occur again, so taking a blanket approach to all horses who throw in a bad run is just not very clever imo. He would have stopped backing vautour, sir gerhard, paisley park, sprinter sacre, shishkin, Dysart dynamo, bravemansgame, Marie’s rock, Epatante, big bucks, stattler, istabraq, apples jade, to name a very small few, pretty early in their careers after one bad run, despite them coming right back to form straight after.

Yeah, I get what you're saying, but Shishkin had two bad runs, a bone issue, then had a wind op prior to the weekends run. I still fancied him to improve for going out in trip, and backed my opinion, but at the same time I'd be lying if I said I didn't have some doubts myself.

 

[riccirich]

Yeah, I get what you're saying, but Shishkin had two bad runs, a bone issue, then had a wind op prior to the weekends run. I still fancied him to improve for going out in trip, and backed my opinion, but at the same time I'd be lying if I said I didn't have some doubts myself.

Shishkin was the one with the most serious issue from the few that I listed I think, so he is probably the one that it’s most understandable that he ignored. But even with shishkin, he could have looked at his nrnb price of 7/1 and thought “best case scenario he returns to form and wins what looks a good race next time out and then I’m in a good position, worst case scenario he runs poorly again and doesn’t go for the Ryanair”. That would seem like a smarter approach imo, than simply thinking “nope shishkin is gone at the game and nothing will convince me otherwise”

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Shishkin was the one with the most serious issue from the few that I listed I think, so he is probably the one that it’s most understandable that he ignored. But even with shishkin, he could have looked at his nrnb price of 7/1 and thought “best case scenario he returns to form and wins what looks a good race next time out and then I’m in a good position, worst case scenario he runs poorly again and doesn’t go for the Ryanair”. That would seem like a smarter approach imo, than simply thinking “nope shishkin is gone at the game and nothing will convince me otherwise”

The problem for JD is he's asked for his opinion, and he doesn't sit on fences. He gave his opinion at that moment in time, that's how he is.

 

[riccirich]

The problem for JD is he's asked for his opinion, and he doesn't sit on fences. He gave his opinion at that moment in time, that's how he is.

No problem with people giving an honest opinion, just saying that imo I think his thinking on the matter is flawed, and i think he’d be better off tweaking his approach a little. Especially with shishkin when there was no real reason to take such a stance betting wise, you could back him on the chance that he would return to form without much risk attached.

 

[FinalFurlong91]

I wouldn’t say he deserves stick for getting any horse wrong, everyone does from time to time, but it’s his approach of just writing off horses who have a stinker that is just wrong imo. You have to judge each horse on its own merits, when horses have a bad run when they bleed that is an issue that we know can reappear again and again, but if the issue was a defibrillating heart for example, we’ve seen time and time again that horses are usually fine in their next run and it doesn’t occur again, so taking a blanket approach to all horses who throw in a bad run is just not very clever imo. He would have stopped backing vautour, sir gerhard, paisley park, sprinter sacre, shishkin, Dysart dynamo, bravemansgame, Marie’s rock, Epatante, big bucks, stattler, istabraq, apples jade, to name a very small few, pretty early in their careers after one bad run, despite them coming right back to form straight after.

The list of horses who didn't come back to near their best would be much longer wouldn't it though?

So it wouldn't be the worst day to day betting strategy iv ever heard

 

[Kevloaf]

That bloke is comedy gold. But my god the number of horses he's written off who've bolted up NTO :applouse: That video is quality though. PN went up in my estimations too. Other than naming CH as his nap of the week like he's a 6/1 shot :biggrin-new:

My guess here is you got in to racing after Kauto/Denman/Masterminded/Big Bucks - as I don't see how PN can't be high in anyones estimations :biggrin-new:

 

[Stormez]

Might not be for Everyone , but i watched the youtube podcast -Racing Post - Johnny Dineen vs Paul Nicholls .
D.J. and J.D went to Paul Nicholls yard , to chat . if you have an hour spare .:lemo:.

I watched it last night as there was nothing else on, and enjoyed it a lot more than I thought I would. Nicholls came across much better than I expected him to.

 

[Exar Essay]

My guess here is you got in to racing after Kauto/Denman/Masterminded/Big Bucks - as I don't see how PN can't be high in anyones estimations :biggrin-new:

Errrrmmm it was a gradual thing for me. Was into racing by mid 2000's but much more into it recently. But his hissy fits last year really grated. I should say, went up in my estimations as a personality, not a trainer obviously. HIs credentials there aren't in doubt.

 

[Kevloaf]

The list of horses who didn't come back to near their best would be much longer wouldn't it though?

So it wouldn't be the worst day to day betting strategy iv ever heard

I wonder if anyone has ever looked at backing horses on an upward curve...as a blanket rule

Something like, backing a horse after a career best run, how many win next time?

You'd catch 'all' the progressive handicappers ..... probably could narrow it down to a certain set of races.

Not going to do the leg work on it but I'd be interested to see it :biggrin-new:

 

[riccirich]

The list of horses who didn't come back to near their best would be much longer wouldn't it though?

So it wouldn't be the worst day to day betting strategy iv ever heard

That’s why I said take each case on it’s merits. If the horse in question who performed poorly is getting on in age and looks to be slowly declining, if they bled, consistent wind problems, really nasty physical injury during a race etc then those are all big issues that horses can struggle to get back to their very best after.

the problem with what Dineen says is if they perform badly for any reason at all, which I assume includes defibrillating heart, running poorly in the final race of a long season, not jumping fences as well as they do hurdles, not scoping well post race, stable as a whole not performing well at the time etc, all of which tend to be minor issues that horses rebound from, so taking a blanket approach and grouping these cases in with the prior cases I mentioned just isn’t the smartest thing to do imo

 

[AaronLad]

I watched the upping the ante paul nicholls special and thought what a great idea for a regular show.
Different trainer and yard each episode, having a chat about horses and targets, bit of banter and maybe the odd cheltenham bet.
would make a much better build up series of shows than the stagnant shit everyone seems to be putting on you tube.

 

[Brooksie]

I watched the upping the ante paul nicholls special and thought what a great idea for a regular show.
Different trainer and yard each episode, having a chat about horses and targets, bit of banter and maybe the odd cheltenham bet.
would make a much better build up series of shows than the stagnant shit everyone seems to be putting on you tube.

Yeah I thought that was a pretty good watch, it's quite noticeable how much more relaxed Paul is around media and pundits ect, 10-15 years ago he took himself far too seriously and wouldn't have entertained this at all. If Johnny called out Kauto like he did BMG he'd have probably sent a hitman round his house.

 

[FinalFurlong91]

That’s why I said take each case on it’s merits. If the horse in question who performed poorly is getting on in age and looks to be slowly declining, if they bled, consistent wind problems, really nasty physical injury during a race etc then those are all big issues that horses can struggle to get back to their very best after.

the problem with what Dineen says is if they perform badly for any reason at all, which I assume includes defibrillating heart, running poorly in the final race of a long season, not jumping fences as well as they do hurdles, not scoping well post race, stable as a whole not performing well at the time etc, all of which tend to be minor issues that horses rebound from, so taking a blanket approach and grouping these cases in with the prior cases I mentioned just isn’t the smartest thing to do imo

He seems to bet mainly day to day and generally on shorties

I'd imagine he's been stung too many times by horses that ran way below form LTO and now just avoids them

Perfectly reasonable strategy

I'd imagine the bookies love laying bets on short priced favs that ran a stinker the time before

 

[Quevega]

He seems to bet mainly day to day and generally on shorties

I'd imagine he's been stung too many times by horses that ran way below form LTO and now just avoids them

Perfectly reasonable strategy

I'd imagine the bookies love laying bets on short priced favs that ran a stinker the time before

Not sure he avoids them though, he seems mad keen on laying them.

 

[riccirich]

He seems to bet mainly day to day and generally on shorties

I'd imagine he's been stung too many times by horses that ran way below form LTO and now just avoids them

Perfectly reasonable strategy

I'd imagine the bookies love laying bets on short priced favs that ran a stinker the time before

Not sure about what his actual strategy is so maybe he could go into detail as to why it suits the specific way that he bets.

but it you bet that way ante post for cheltenham, then looking at the head of the market in the big six races, and using his strategy strictly, you wouldn’t be on Marie’s rock, Epatante, Edwardstone, gent de mee, blue lord, teahupoo, flooring, klassical, hbtl, shishkin, janidil, fury road, Galopin, stattler, bmg, a plus tard, so you’d be giving yourself a very small pool of horses that you could actually have a bet on :emmersed: on top of that every handicap race is ruled out since every horse in them has run poorly on purpose at some point.