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2023 Mares Novice Hurdle

With the entries for the mares handicap hurdle at the drf now released I note Harmonya maker and liberty dance have been given entries. No entry for halka du tabert.
This indicates to me that HDT will get an entry for the solerina. I expect her to win.
Currently Harmonya maker is penalty free for the MNH, and in going for the handicap @ drf, she should stay this way now until the MNH.
Liberty Dance having won a listed contest would currently carry a 5lb penalty in the MNH, a run in the handicap @ drf would be her 4th hurdle run, making her eligible for a cheltenham handicap.
Halka du tabert if winning the solerina next weekend will have to carry a penalty in the MNH. The solerina is over 2m2 1/2f . once HDT is stepped up in trip and she shows what she can truly do there is only one way she's going and that is up in trip again to the ballymore.
 
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AaronLad said:
With the entries for the mares handicap hurdle at the drf now released I note Harmonya maker and liberty dance have been given entries. No entry for halka du tabert.
This indicates to me that HDT will get an entry for the solerina. I expect her to win.
Currently Harmonya maker is penalty free for the MNH, and in going for the handicap @ drf, she should stay this way now until the MNH.
Liberty Dance having won a listed contest would currently carry a 5lb penalty in the MNH, a run in the handicap @ drf would be her 4th hurdle run, making her eligible for a cheltenham handicap.
Halka du tabert if winning the solerina next weekend will have to carry a penalty in the MNH. The solerina is over 2m2 1/2f . once HDT is stepped up in trip and she shows what she can truly do there is only one way she's going and that is up in trip again to the ballymore.
Click to expand...

... this could have been a scene from Good Will Hunting

hmmmm this has me thinking, which is dangerous at 09:05am
 
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AaronLad said:
With the entries for the mares handicap hurdle at the drf now released I note Harmonya maker and liberty dance have been given entries. No entry for halka du tabert.
This indicates to me that HDT will get an entry for the solerina. I expect her to win.
Currently Harmonya maker is penalty free for the MNH, and in going for the handicap @ drf, she should stay this way now until the MNH.
Liberty Dance having won a listed contest would currently carry a 5lb penalty in the MNH, a run in the handicap @ drf would be her 4th hurdle run, making her eligible for a cheltenham handicap.
Halka du tabert if winning the solerina next weekend will have to carry a penalty in the MNH. The solerina is over 2m2 1/2f . once HDT is stepped up in trip and she shows what she can truly do there is only one way she's going and that is up in trip again to the ballymore.
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Up in trip again to the mares grade 1 at fairyhouse would be more likely given who she's owned by
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
Up in trip again to the mares grade 1 at fairyhouse would be more likely given who she's owned by
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no, that will be back down in trip again, but yes very likely that once she's won the ballymore, she'll win a 2nd grade 1 at fairyhouse :devilish:
 
I can see the angle with HDT missing Cheltenham based on how Honeysuckle was campaigned as a novice, but I don't think it was their intention to miss Cheltenham, I vaguely remember it being down to her not being right so they left her in Ireland. She'd already had two runs at Fairyhouse so it made sense for them to wait for Fairyhouse in April (not much difference in prize money). HDT looks to have been campaigned slightly different having had the run at Naas, which is usually a good track to visit if you are planning to go to Cheltenham. I think she'll be Cheltenham bound all being well.

It's an interesting take on her target Aaron, but I don't quite see it myself. If they believe they've got a very good mare on their hands I don't see them being worried about giving 5lbs away. I think they'll just head to the Mares Novice Hurdle and have her handy to make use of her stamina.
 
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Brooksie said:
I can see the angle with HDT missing Cheltenham based on how Honeysuckle was campaigned as a novice, but I don't think it was their intention to miss Cheltenham, I vaguely remember it being down to her not being right so they left her in Ireland. She'd already had two runs at Fairyhouse so it made sense for them to wait for Fairyhouse in April (not much difference in prize money). HDT looks to have been campaigned slightly different having had the run at Naas, which is usually a good track to visit if you are planning to go to Cheltenham. I think she'll be Cheltenham bound all being well.

It's an interesting take on her target Aaron, but I don't quite see it myself. If they believe they've got a very good mare on their hands I don't see them being worried about giving 5lbs away. I think they'll just head to the Mares Novice Hurdle and have her handy to make use of her stamina.
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I don't think it's being worried about giving 5lbs away.
Gordon has no other runner, and she's good enough imo.
She fit's the profile perfectly for a gordon elliott ballymore runner.
Why go for the grade 2, when the grade 1 isn't any harder, is it? Luccia could be anything, have we seen mullins best? The trip of the ballymore suits her better.
He followed a similar path with shattered love, I see HDT going chasing next year, probably winning the turners. same as shattered love, she's a big old mare.

She has to win the solerina next weekend, and of course have an entry for the ballymore. But if you really do like her i'd think about covering yourself with william hill 20/1 nrmb.
 
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AaronLad said:
I don't think it's being worried about giving 5lbs away.
Gordon has no other runner, and she's good enough imo.
She fit's the profile perfectly for a gordon elliott ballymore runner.
Why go for the grade 2, when the grade 1 isn't any harder, is it? Luccia could be anything, have we seen mullins best? The trip of the ballymore suits her better.
He followed a similar path with shattered love, I see HDT going chasing next year, probably winning the turners. same as shattered love, she's a big old mare.

She has to win the solerina next weekend, and of course have an entry for the ballymore. But if you really do like her i'd think about covering yourself with william hill 20/1 nrmb.
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Seen a few comments indicating she would appreciate the step up in trip. When are decs out for ballymore (are they already out). If not, be interesting if she’s in there
 
AaronLad said:
I don't think it's being worried about giving 5lbs away.
Gordon has no other runner, and she's good enough imo.
She fit's the profile perfectly for a gordon elliott ballymore runner.
Why go for the grade 2, when the grade 1 isn't any harder, is it? Luccia could be anything, have we seen mullins best? The trip of the ballymore suits her better.
He followed a similar path with shattered love, I see HDT going chasing next year, probably winning the turners. same as shattered love, she's a big old mare.

She has to win the solerina next weekend, and of course have an entry for the ballymore. But if you really do like her i'd think about covering yourself with william hill 20/1 nrmb.
Click to expand...

Don’t think Elliott has totally ruled out Irish point or american mike going Ballymore although the noises do seem to indicate supreme and Bartlett for those two.

a couple of related doubles, halka - Ballymore with Irish point - supreme and mike - Bartlett could be a good idea at nice prices too.
 
riccirich said:
Don’t think Elliott has totally ruled out Irish point or american mike going Ballymore although the noises do seem to indicate supreme and Bartlett for those two.

a couple of related doubles, halka - Ballymore with Irish point - supreme and mike - Bartlett could be a good idea at nice prices too.
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Yeah they haven't been ruled out but none of them fit the profile like halka.
American mike never started out over hurdles at 2miles, a key thing for elliotts ballymore horses.
irish point doesn't have the point to point background, and the latest noises are he's supreme bound.

i like the idea of american mike bartlett and halka ballymore.
 
opatcho said:
Seen a few comments indicating she would appreciate the step up in trip. When are decs out for ballymore (are they already out). If not, be interesting if she’s in there
Click to expand...

entries this week. tuesday i think
 
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AaronLad said:
I don't think it's being worried about giving 5lbs away.
Gordon has no other runner, and she's good enough imo.
She fit's the profile perfectly for a gordon elliott ballymore runner.
Why go for the grade 2, when the grade 1 isn't any harder, is it? Luccia could be anything, have we seen mullins best? The trip of the ballymore suits her better.
He followed a similar path with shattered love, I see HDT going chasing next year, probably winning the turners. same as shattered love, she's a big old mare.

She has to win the solerina next weekend, and of course have an entry for the ballymore. But if you really do like her i'd think about covering yourself with william hill 20/1 nrmb.
Click to expand...

Completely agree that she'll be one to go chasing next season, I don't think it was a secret they really wanted to see Honeysuckle over a fence but due to the 2 mile hurdling division being piss poor she found herself in that division for her whole career. I can't see them spending much more time over hurdles with this one, especially with CH being around.

Personally I think American Mike will be Gordon's Ballymore horse this term, the vibes seem to be that he's back working well, and what with Irish Point now looking to be heading for the Supreme Absolute Notions might also run as a 2nd string. They have ammunition in the 3 mile race with Three Card Brag and Favori De Champdou, I cant see American Mike going there with them.

One of the reasons I think HDT represents value is because we have a small line on Luccia through Eabha Grace, there isn't much between them imo. One is 3/1 the other is 14/1. I don't see them caring that much about the grade of the race at this stage of her career. They'll just want to get festival experience into her before she comes back next season chasing.

I respect your reasoning though and I'll place a small covering bet with Hills NRNB :)
 
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Ashroe blue across the boards today and Luccia pushed out to 3's by PP.
 
Lobos said:
Ashroe blue across the boards today and Luccia pushed out to 3's by PP.
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PP/Betfair having a bit of a shuffle around on a fair few markets it would seem, today.

Maybe balancing the books or drawing people in before they go NRNB!
 
ComplyOrDie said:
PP/Betfair having a bit of a shuffle around on a fair few markets it would seem, today.

Maybe balancing the books or drawing people in before they go NRNB!
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Yep. Loads of movement. Can't keep up with it !
 
Ashroe diamond, halka du talbert and a few others among the possible runners at fairyhouse on Saturday

An impressive winner would see a threat to luccia as fav
 
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