• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

General Chat

Always a Claimer said:
Thanks all, very interesting. Don’t have access to B365 unfortunately, I complained about something many years ago and they didn’t like it! Blocked ever since.

I have been doing anteposts for a few years, starting in the years of Champagne Fever, Faugheen etc. but only really dedicated time and funds in the last three years. still have nightmares of Annie Power falling at the last to ruin a big antepost accumulator and Champagne Fever getting chinned by Western Warhorse in the Arkle. Sorry for dragging it back up for those that had spent years in therapy trying to forget…

Biggest “investment” so far this year, but pretty much reinvesting last years Profit. Trying to not think of it as house money as that can make me a little gung-ho but I must admit that I read the various approaches (scattergun, to each way or not, proportion of singles vs multiples & full on books) really interesting. My personal preference currently is win only and “targeted scattergun”! For me this is still fun and creation of full on books takes away a bit of the analysis of when to bet and not. But I know others will take a fair and different view. But that has allowed me to get some big prices on side early, for example GDM @16/1 for NH, Gaelic Warrior @25/1 for Ballymore and Delta Work @5/1. And some of the early sky requestabets are looking very tasty - but it does only take a few of the big ones not to make it and they disappear, so I treat those as a bonus. Not intending to after-time, this was more to
show the approach, as there have been some shockers as well (decent single on Shishkin who I thought had become value, Dinoblue for Mares Hurdle, Sir Gerhard champion hurdle…) but with this approach you have to take the rough with the smooth.
Click to expand...

Good posts, I like genuine question ones about strategy and approaches.

Just defining your scattergun ... how many horses have you backed so far in total? (race by race if you can be bothered)


My first recorded festival was literally 1 horse per race, and much more recently, (Tuesday 2021) swould be every horse running on that day .... and have probably gone through all the in between now over the last decade!
 
Joleg said:
I was wondering ......

.What would you consider to be a fair amount of points lost already at this point ?

I am showing currently a loss of a fraction over 10% (10.25%) of my total point outlay, i am aware that this will get considerably worse the closer we get to the festival

I also have a few horses (JDB, FV) backed in more than one race, which will increase my overall loss when destinations are clear
Click to expand...

I'm similar at the moment, but expect that to increase between now and the Festival. 10-15% is a good result I'd suggest, and anything up to 20% is okay.

What's often forgotten it the average price of the horses in your book is considerably better than even money, so that should also be factored in too, and specifically how much you beat the price on average by. My current average book price is 19.75/1, and most will be similar I'd expect. I'm sure someone will counter-argue that a book with an average price of evens is better, but it just isn't. Losses beforehand are an acceptable part of antepost punting. If you lose a favourite often you have superb value with another horse you have onside.
 
Kevloaf said:
Good posts, I like genuine question ones about strategy and approaches.

Just defining your scattergun ... how many horses have you backed so far in total? (race by race if you can be bothered)


My first recorded festival was literally 1 horse per race, and much more recently, (Tuesday 2021) swould be every horse running on that day .... and have probably gone through all the in between now over the last decade!
Click to expand...


Genuinely depends on how strongly I feel about the ones I have so each race is different. In the novices, juveniles, mares and championship races probably between 1-4. Nothing in handicaps. A few examples from day one - one of the shockers was backing Mercurey too early in the Supreme as a single (but not overly worried because that tactic of backing Mullins/Henderson types wary at big prices has paid dividends in previous years) but I have Facile Vega in loads of multiples and have recently added Rare Edition ew (ironically my only ew!). That’ll do for now but will try and cover on the day with some of the offers that always come up in the Supreme. Only backed 3 in the Arkle. Jonbon about 5 minutes after last years Supreme and Mighty Potter (again, last March, one to write off) and added DD in November after watching the Supreme back and seeing how well he was going. I was pretty confident of his destination and he was 12s or 14s. Only CH in the CH (now my Sir Gerhard single is looking unlikely - again, placed straight after Ballymore (it’ll always be the Neptune really!) thinking he might be another Faugheen) but in multiples only. Epatante early doors at decent price for Mares but have only added Brandy Love since. Missed the price on Maries Rock. Nothing in Boodles yet. Got GDM early in NH at 16s but started covering when BANC was mentioned (plus getting GDM at 25s for BANC) - Chemical Energy & Ramillies only.

This forum has been great for reading and learning things, especially race placements and patterns that help. Some of my better bets have been because of hints on here - I take the hints and do plenty of watching back/assessing myself - which as someone who loves sport, stats and data is a passion. For example, someone mentioned Galvin for X Country, which I hadn’t even thought, but it made total sense. I have a decent outlay on Delta Work at 5s, so a small cover at 33s made sense. But I won’t back anything else now.

so I guess that is the targeted scattergun approach! Plus I always enjoy antepost betting, whether that be in football, American football or racing - for me it is about the fun of following sport and antepost gives me a buzz over a really long time. But nothing better than backing something at 33s that goes off 2/1 fav and romps home. Not only does it feel like you are beating the system but you can take (and afford!) losers along the way.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Kevloaf, Quevega, Saxon Warrior and 4 others
opatcho said:
I think we need to get used to seeing the Double Green of Simon Munir over the next 2-3 seasons. Pretty much every weak I'm seeing those colours win a novice race
Someone's been slashing the cash
Click to expand...

I hope so, I really do.
They have been long time investors in the game and haven’t really been rewarded with big race wins that the investment probably deserves…
 
opatcho said:
I think we need to get used to seeing the Double Green of Simon Munir over the next 2-3 seasons. Pretty much every weak I'm seeing those colours win a novice race
Someone's been slashing the cash
Click to expand...

They've had some good horses in the past - Bristol De Mai, Footpad, Master Dino (shame he didn't have the chance to achieve his potential), Concertista, Sceau Royal etc

But they do seem to have taken a step up with their novices this year. They invest a lot in the UK, France, Ireland (including some point to point horses) so I hope it continues for them.
 
  • Like
Reactions: opatcho
DenmanSacre said:
They've had some good horses in the past - Bristol De Mai, Footpad, Master Dino (shame he didn't have the chance to achieve his potential), Concertista, Sceau Royal etc

But they do seem to have taken a step up with their novices this year. They invest a lot in the UK, France, Ireland (including some point to point horses) so I hope it continues for them.
Click to expand...

There was a 2-3 year period where they didnt have much coming through, but now.... some very exciting novices coming through
 
you probably wont see any NRNB funds until declaration time as you can supplement into graded races and the likes of Mullins entering everything everywhere
 
opatcho said:
Wills NRMB

Anyone had their stakes returned by Wills on horses that arent declared?
Do you have to chase them up
Click to expand...

I think this raised its head last year and I can't remember now! It either took them a few days or it wasn't until declarations but not 100% certain.

EDIT - didn't have to chase them, just had to wait
 
  • Like
Reactions: opatcho
That Horse said:
I think this raised its head last year and I can't remember now! It either took them a few days or it wasn't until declarations but not 100% certain.

EDIT - didn't have to chase them, just had to wait
Click to expand...

Spoke to them, they said they need their sports traders to work through the information (likely the decs from today)
Said to keep checking for update (assuming over the next few days)
 
opatcho said:
Spoke to them, they said they need their sports traders to work through the information (likely the decs from today)
Said to keep checking for update (assuming over the next few days)
Click to expand...

I think someone one here stuck a message on last year when they got stake back then it started happening for everyone, so must be someone continually clicking a button at WH until they get through them all :welcoming:
 
  • Like
Reactions: opatcho
HoldenTheReins said:
Please tell me others experienced that FA cup coverage :welcoming::excitement:
Click to expand...

Haha just in from football training and was like what's this mad man on about! Then checked twitter! Superb! Someone out there is a hero haha
 
DenmanSacre said:
They've had some good horses in the past - Bristol De Mai, Footpad, Master Dino (shame he didn't have the chance to achieve his potential), Concertista, Sceau Royal etc

But they do seem to have taken a step up with their novices this year. They invest a lot in the UK, France, Ireland (including some point to point horses) so I hope it continues for them.
Click to expand...

Munir & Souede are an enigma - they invest so much into the game & have had some great horses over the years who always seem to come up against one better come the big Festivals; Footpad & Soldatino being the main ones I can think of who got the job done at HQ. I remember banging on and on about Blue Lord last year on here & a few were on at nice prices only to see him well held in the Arkle.

As others have stated above though, I think this year could finally see them have greeter success at the big Festivals & certainly would seem the case for next season ahead too. Rather than do the "special" of them top owner at the Festival, I've put an "against the favs" four fold hoping Double Green :frog: have a good showing in March. Missed any big prices as not been involved this season so good luck to anyone on at much bigger odds!

El Fabiolo (Arkle), Impaire Et Passe (Ballymore), JDB (Turners), Blue Lord (Ryanair) - 2,547/1 (Sky)
 
Concertista won the Mares Novice as a second season novice
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom