General Chat

[Hardy Eustace]

In the last 3 years Willie has started the festival slowly by his lofty standards. He hasn’t won a supreme, arkle or mares hurdle in that time. In the 7 years prior to that he’d won the supreme 4 times, the arkle 4 times and the mares hurdle 5 times.

is there anything in that recent trend? Or is it too recent to be meaningful?

The reason I ask is because I’m quite heavily in bed with facile, el fabiolo (though do have a nice position on Jonbon) and Brandy love so am wondering if it’s worth trying to take Mullins on, on day 1 by either laying his first string to de risk, or trying to get them beat with maybe Marion nationale, Jonbon and Marie’s rock/love envoi in a trixie.

 

[opatcho]

Never been to PTP's before, Atlantic Viking - keep us posted on how you get on and whats its like

I live 30 mins away from Warwick racecourse, but have never been. Even worse, I spent 8-10 years working close by lol

Yesterday, at the very last minute, I decided to throw on a jacket and head down. Great little race course, really good crowd and some half decide racing.

Also decided to take the hit (lower odds) and bet with the oncourse bookies, and so I'd glad I did. Being down there, scanning the screens for the best odds, watching for price changes was great fun - really missed being down there in the crowds, it was a right buzz.

Planning to tick of a lot of first over the next 1-2 years, including a trip to the PTP... and I have to go over to the DRF next year

 

[opatcho]

In the last 3 years Willie has started the festival slowly by his lofty standards. He hasn’t won a supreme, arkle or mares hurdle in that time. In the 7 years prior to that he’d won the supreme 4 times, the arkle 4 times and the mares hurdle 5 times.

is there anything in that recent trend? Or is it too recent to be meaningful?

The reason I ask is because I’m quite heavily in bed with facile, el fabiolo (though do have a nice position on Jonbon) and Brandy love so am wondering if it’s worth trying to take Mullins on, on day 1 by either laying his first string to de risk, or trying to get them beat with maybe Marion nationale, Jonbon and Marie’s rock/love envoi in a trixie.

Its something I have in the back of my head - remember the year when Ruby/Mullins didnt have a winner until the Thursday and then they had a 4 timers. But then, you have years when Mullin was close to banging in a 4 timer on the Tuesday

Also, have poster notes reminding me to shortlist Mullins on the Friday

I think what would be interesting, again something I have written down on a post-it note, is Paul Townend seems to do better on the new course over the old course.
5-10 year trends may be skewed as Ruby would have had first choice, so likely on the best horse in the likes of the supreme, CH, arkle etc. However, with Friday being more competitive (races like the County, AB, Triumph... ) there is more chance of the second or third strings going on to win. I dont have any stats to back this up, its just one of those things that linger in the back of your head.

Just looking at the last faz, Townend

Tuesday - F3742
Wednesday - 1310
Thursday - F4153
Friday - 11265

Dunno... could try and do this but I think any trending this produces will be as reliable as trying to trend the Going

I do hold a general believe (I dont have stats to back this up!!!!), that Townsend rides the new course better than the new course.

 

[AaronLad]

Never been to PTP's before, Atlantic Viking - keep us posted on how you get on and whats its like

I live 30 mins away from Warwick racecourse, but have never been. Even worse, I spent 8-10 years working close by lol

Yesterday, at the very last minute, I decided to throw on a jacket and head down. Great little race course, really good crowd and some half decide racing.

Also decided to take the hit (lower odds) and bet with the oncourse bookies, and so I'd glad I did. Being down there, scanning the screens for the best odds, watching for price changes was great fun - really missed being down there in the crowds, it was a right buzz.

Planning to tick of a lot of first over the next 1-2 years, including a trip to the PTP... and I have to go over to the DRF next year

If you live 30 mins warwick racecourse, shelfield park and mollington are two p2ps you might like to think about.

 

[opatcho]

If you live 30 mins warwick racecourse, shelfield park and mollington are two p2ps you might like to think about.

nice one for that!

 

[Guinness Village]

Ah the Moscow flyer today. Reminds me of comments from 12 months ago, when I was almost burned in the Whicker man for suggesting that DD was a 2 miler. For suggesting that the race produced supreme horses. Haven’t heard anyone suggesting :biggrin-new::biggrin-new::biggrin-new:he’ll be going further this season

 

[DenmanSacre]

Ah the Moscow flyer today. Reminds me of comments from 12 months ago, when I was almost burned in the Whicker man for suggesting that DD was a 2 miler. For suggesting that the race produced supreme horses. Haven’t heard anyone suggesting :biggrin-new::biggrin-new::biggrin-new:he’ll be going further this season

Just need to go 2 for 2 with IEP and you'll be the Mullins oracle.

 

[Curly]

Off to my first point to point of the season today at Easterby HQ, always a top day and a bit of a giddy sign that the big stuff is fast approaching :applouse: Some decent nags on show too by English standards, Dubai Quest for one (last years Foxhunters 4th).

Torngat - is running there today - that’s a horse I’ve previously owned

 

[Kevloaf]

In the last 3 years Willie has started the festival slowly by his lofty standards. He hasn’t won a supreme, arkle or mares hurdle in that time. In the 7 years prior to that he’d won the supreme 4 times, the arkle 4 times and the mares hurdle 5 times.

is there anything in that recent trend? Or is it too recent to be meaningful?

The reason I ask is because I’m quite heavily in bed with facile, el fabiolo (though do have a nice position on Jonbon) and Brandy love so am wondering if it’s worth trying to take Mullins on, on day 1 by either laying his first string to de risk, or trying to get them beat with maybe Marion nationale, Jonbon and Marie’s rock/love envoi in a trixie.

What would the trend actually be? He doesn't have his horses 100% for Tue/Wed but does for Thurs/Fri?


The opatcho case about Paul Townend is a moderately interesting theory, but for me it's just coincedence ...


I have no doubt that the Mullins horses and Paul Townend will deliver, if the horses are good enough.... which day means very little, and I wouldn't start fancying one more just because it was running on a specific day..... some people seem to be like that with ADV on the Friday :indecisiveness:

 

[Saxon Warrior]

One or Two RPR updates from Warwick on Saturday have come through already.

(c/w previous best RPR’s)

Grey Dawning 143 (+14)
Albert Bartlett mentioned for him

Galia Des Liteaux 153 (+8)
Three races to consider according to Dan Skelton, with the Reynoldstown Chase vs the geldings next stop
* BANC - trip suits
* 3M Novice at Aintree
* Mares Chase, only if Soft/Heavy to make it a stamina test

Couple of Handicap RPR numbers to ponder

Iwilldoit 160 RPR (+8lb)
Mr Incredible 150 RPR (+11lb)

​

 

[Atlantic Viking]

Never been to PTP's before, Atlantic Viking - keep us posted on how you get on and whats its like

Been to a fair few at various Yorkshire tracks, always a good afternoon out and a chance to play dress up and try pretend you're proper country folk for a few hours :highly_amused: Any well bred single young male must think they've died and gone to heaven too i'll say that much! :highly_amused:
Just good grassroots racing and the betting is usually decent too, good spread of prices between bookies unlike what you get normally at rules tracks. Would definitely recommend to anyone who hasn't been, some are better supported than others though (probably around 1500 there today which is a good turnout) so might want to do research on your local ones.
https://www.pointtopoint.co.uk/fixtures

 

[Hurricane fly]

If you live 30 mins warwick racecourse, shelfield park and mollington are two p2ps you might like to think about.

There is also one at Edgcote which started back up a couple of years ago, for some reason I think it's listed as Bicester though.

Yorkhill is residing around there too, who I keep meaning to try and arrange a visit too!

 

[Always a Claimer]

Very happy with my antepost position currently, but trying to improve for next year, I want to make more of the cash out options. This year I have tended to work across bookies and simply take the best price, so my current good position probably has a fair bit of luck attached. None of my Skybet and WH bets are eligible for cash out, and my PP ones appear to only be cash out to the value of the stake - for example, backed a treble of Allaho (2/1) Energumene (7/2) and Galopin (5/1) at a combined 80/1, which is now a shade over 11/1, and yet the cash out is still only the stake with no profit? Is that usual? Not that I would cash that one out!!

What are the best cash out options for me to consider next year?

 

[Big Bucks]

Very happy with my antepost position currently, but trying to improve for next year, I want to make more of the cash out options. This year I have tended to work across bookies and simply take the best price, so my current good position probably has a fair bit of luck attached. None of my Skybet and WH bets are eligible for cash out, and my PP ones appear to only be cash out to the value of the stake - for example, backed a treble of Allaho (2/1) Energumene (7/2) and Galopin (5/1) at a combined 80/1, which is now a shade over 11/1, and yet the cash out is still only the stake with no profit? Is that usual? Not that I would cash that one out!!

What are the best cash out options for me to consider next year?

I can only speak for PP as I don't have a 365. PP haven't been great this year, mainly the reason you have mentioned, only giving stake back, I've numerous bets placed with horses x3/4 times the price now but only offering stake back. The only race that this isn't the case seems to be the Triumph for me? Where they are offering profit on Lossiemouth and Blood Destiny.

 

[Quevega]

Very happy with my antepost position currently, but trying to improve for next year, I want to make more of the cash out options. This year I have tended to work across bookies and simply take the best price, so my current good position probably has a fair bit of luck attached. None of my Skybet and WH bets are eligible for cash out, and my PP ones appear to only be cash out to the value of the stake - for example, backed a treble of Allaho (2/1) Energumene (7/2) and Galopin (5/1) at a combined 80/1, which is now a shade over 11/1, and yet the cash out is still only the stake with no profit? Is that usual? Not that I would cash that one out!!

What are the best cash out options for me to consider next year?

It's just PP and B365.
But PP behave like you've experienced and Bet365 grey out cash out when someone farts.
Your treble would probably be greyed out in respect of Allaho, although I don't know for sure as I've not backed him.

Unless something changes, then cash out is a much smaller factor than it once was, and is getting smaller, so I wouldn't worry too much.

 

[riccirich]

Very happy with my antepost position currently, but trying to improve for next year, I want to make more of the cash out options. This year I have tended to work across bookies and simply take the best price, so my current good position probably has a fair bit of luck attached. None of my Skybet and WH bets are eligible for cash out, and my PP ones appear to only be cash out to the value of the stake - for example, backed a treble of Allaho (2/1) Energumene (7/2) and Galopin (5/1) at a combined 80/1, which is now a shade over 11/1, and yet the cash out is still only the stake with no profit? Is that usual? Not that I would cash that one out!!

What are the best cash out options for me to consider next year?

I dunno if you have access to 365, but then and pp are my two main accounts, and both have pros and cons.

paddy power react much stronger to price drifts, for example if you back a horse at 20/1 and he drifts to 25s then your cash out would be immediately halved or worse. So generally speaking if your taking a flier at one before it runs and thinking it might get beat and drift for cheltenham, then 365 would usually be the better call as cashout would be a lot higher for that 20 to 25 drift, or any drift for that matter.

where paddy power is better than 365 is they aren’t as quick to react, or don’t react at all, to news of race targets or the possibility of a horse possibly not going to cheltenham. For example I still have cash out on pp for blazing khal (stayers) and sir gerhard (turners), whereas the same bets have cashout suspended on 365. 365 have also suspended cashout on luccia for the mares novice because she missed the tolworth.

Paddys also usually suspend cashout on ante post bets once nrnb kicks in, whereas 365 leave it available all the way.

i don’t know how new you are to ante post betting and you may already know all that, but they are a few useful tips for anyone starting off.

 

[Always a Claimer]

Thanks all, very interesting. Don’t have access to B365 unfortunately, I complained about something many years ago and they didn’t like it! Blocked ever since.

I have been doing anteposts for a few years, starting in the years of Champagne Fever, Faugheen etc. but only really dedicated time and funds in the last three years. still have nightmares of Annie Power falling at the last to ruin a big antepost accumulator and Champagne Fever getting chinned by Western Warhorse in the Arkle. Sorry for dragging it back up for those that had spent years in therapy trying to forget…

Biggest “investment” so far this year, but pretty much reinvesting last years Profit. Trying to not think of it as house money as that can make me a little gung-ho but I must admit that I read the various approaches (scattergun, to each way or not, proportion of singles vs multiples & full on books) really interesting. My personal preference currently is win only and “targeted scattergun”! For me this is still fun and creation of full on books takes away a bit of the analysis of when to bet and not. But I know others will take a fair and different view. But that has allowed me to get some big prices on side early, for example GDM @16/1 for NH, Gaelic Warrior @25/1 for Ballymore and Delta Work @5/1. And some of the early sky requestabets are looking very tasty - but it does only take a few of the big ones not to make it and they disappear, so I treat those as a bonus. Not intending to after-time, this was more to
show the approach, as there have been some shockers as well (decent single on Shishkin who I thought had become value, Dinoblue for Mares Hurdle, Sir Gerhard champion hurdle…) but with this approach you have to take the rough with the smooth.

 

[CJW]

Clonmel going ahead tomorrow?

 

[Quevega]

Clonmel going ahead tomorrow?

inspection 7-30am

 

[CJW]

inspection 7-30am

Cheers, will see what mullins says if any previews out soon, that'll be interesting.