2023 Novice Chasers

[charlie]

I have a feeling he's using this race as he's still unsure about 2miles. The Arkle is always a rapidly run race in which no prisoners are taken. Think they'll fly him out from the start and see if he can keep up a strong pace all the way and also whether he can jump accurately at pace. He'll then make a decision on which way to go.

A conversation about the merit of AI going up in trip is one thing, but surely there can be close to zero doubt that WPM is unsure of AI over 2m. He's been to Cheltenham 3 times, all over 2 miles. He's won 3 grade 1's, all over 2 miles. Sunday will be his 11th start for Willie, his 10th over 2m. All of that screams happy over 2m IMO, not unsure.

I'm also fairly sure that barring a loss, the calibre of this race wouldn't influence a long term outcome. I wont be getting carried away though. If, and its still an if, AI blitzes them from the front and is much better than on debut, he'll still have the same question marks that the others have, which is competing in easier races, front running, and not doing winning in deep company.

 

[Kautostar]

The any race market is like any other.
There will be value somewhere.

I personally like it for Juveniles when the price is not dissimilar to the price for the triumph. Especially a horse with a reputation/price tag with a big yard.

For example.

Jazzy Matty 33-1 v 25-1.
Looks a player in the Boodles now.

There are other examples of potential graded novice chasers that may revert back or end in a handicap over hurdles or fences. Again with reputations from big yards and cheltenham experience/ambitions.

I personally have never seen much value in the classier more obvious ones, but I'm sure some work out and every now and then the price when compared with the specific race prices looks worth taking.

It is 100% not a strategy to base a portfolio on IMO, unless your motivation is not having to do anything/much for the rest of the year.

I wouldn’t base a portfolio around twar but if used correctly it’s something that should be incorporated into a strategy. You have to be selective and definitely works best in the novice divisions but I think it’s a vastly underrated option especially to those without the cash out options anymore.

 

[charlie]

Has someone somewhere put up The Real Whacker? Loads of blue today. 7/1 in places is way too short IMO. Who is backing him at that price? Debut over hurdles too bad to be true, so best ignored. Ran to an RPR of 144 (which is rubbish for that race) to beat a 133 rated chaser Indigo Breeze by half a length. No denying the Dipper run was a solid performance and a big step in the right direction, but he's got a freebie on the front end, jumped the last 8L ahead of the 150 rated Thunder Rock who was closing with every stride (eventually lost 3L). It looked good, but thats all it looked. I know LHP won the race last year and perhaps whoever put him up is trying to connect the same dots or tread the same stepping stones, but it wasn't that type of performance IMO, now way near. TRW looked to fall in rather than win it as a classy animal. Respect cheltenham experience and cheltenham form, it's an important thing to have on the CV, but I don't think he'll be good enough for this.

 

[That Horse]

Has someone somewhere put up The Real Whacker? Loads of blue today. 7/1 in places is way too short IMO. Who is backing him at that price? Debut over hurdles too bad to be true, so best ignored. Ran to an RPR of 144 (which is rubbish for that race) to beat a 133 rated chaser Indigo Breeze by half a length. No denying the Dipper run was a solid performance and a big step in the right direction, but he's got a freebie on the front end, jumped the last 8L ahead of the 150 rated Thunder Rock who was closing with every stride (eventually lost 3L). It looked good, but thats all it looked. I know LHP won the race last year and perhaps whoever put him up is trying to connect the same dots or tread the same stepping stones, but it wasn't that type of performance IMO, now way near. TRW looked to fall in rather than win it as a classy animal. Respect cheltenham experience and cheltenham form, it's an important thing to have on the CV, but I don't think he'll be good enough for this.

Haven't backed him and want him to lose at Cheltenham for a very silly and childish reason, so that afterwards, he can be called The Real Wanker

 

[Lobos]

Just think the BANC looks wide open ATM and pretty average to be honest. No real Irish star has stepped forward and no Irish trainer has confirmed the BANC as 100% the target for any of their horses. All up in the air.

 

[Outlaw]

Has someone somewhere put up The Real Whacker? Loads of blue today. 7/1 in places is way too short IMO. Who is backing him at that price? Debut over hurdles too bad to be true, so best ignored. Ran to an RPR of 144 (which is rubbish for that race) to beat a 133 rated chaser Indigo Breeze by half a length. No denying the Dipper run was a solid performance and a big step in the right direction, but he's got a freebie on the front end, jumped the last 8L ahead of the 150 rated Thunder Rock who was closing with every stride (eventually lost 3L). It looked good, but thats all it looked. I know LHP won the race last year and perhaps whoever put him up is trying to connect the same dots or tread the same stepping stones, but it wasn't that type of performance IMO, now way near. TRW looked to fall in rather than win it as a classy animal. Respect cheltenham experience and cheltenham form, it's an important thing to have on the CV, but I don't think he'll be good enough for this.

Been mentioned by quite a few analysing it vs the hcap Daryl/Rowlands/Holding over the last few days so no doubt a few have been nibbling away 16/12s etc. Not saying I agree with the current price but it's more a reflection of the openness of the market that he's into single digits, nothing has taken a strangle hold of this race and possibly won't until Dublin.

 

[Exar Essay]

Haven't backed him and want him to lose at Cheltenham for a very silly and childish reason, so that afterwards, he can be called The Real Wanker

Lydia’s tip in her column. And they were eulogising re his ride on RTC.

 

[Irish Rugby]

Has someone somewhere put up The Real Whacker? Loads of blue today. 7/1 in places is way too short IMO. Who is backing him at that price? Debut over hurdles too bad to be true, so best ignored. Ran to an RPR of 144 (which is rubbish for that race) to beat a 133 rated chaser Indigo Breeze by half a length. No denying the Dipper run was a solid performance and a big step in the right direction, but he's got a freebie on the front end, jumped the last 8L ahead of the 150 rated Thunder Rock who was closing with every stride (eventually lost 3L). It looked good, but thats all it looked. I know LHP won the race last year and perhaps whoever put him up is trying to connect the same dots or tread the same stepping stones, but it wasn't that type of performance IMO, now way near. TRW looked to fall in rather than win it as a classy animal. Respect cheltenham experience and cheltenham form, it's an important thing to have on the CV, but I don't think he'll be good enough for this.

Simon Rowland in his weekly sectionals piece on the ATR site was very complimentary, but that was Wednesday.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Has someone somewhere put up The Real Whacker? Loads of blue today. 7/1 in places is way too short IMO. Who is backing him at that price? Debut over hurdles too bad to be true, so best ignored. Ran to an RPR of 144 (which is rubbish for that race) to beat a 133 rated chaser Indigo Breeze by half a length. No denying the Dipper run was a solid performance and a big step in the right direction, but he's got a freebie on the front end, jumped the last 8L ahead of the 150 rated Thunder Rock who was closing with every stride (eventually lost 3L). It looked good, but thats all it looked. I know LHP won the race last year and perhaps whoever put him up is trying to connect the same dots or tread the same stepping stones, but it wasn't that type of performance IMO, now way near. TRW looked to fall in rather than win it as a classy animal. Respect cheltenham experience and cheltenham form, it's an important thing to have on the CV, but I don't think he'll be good enough for this.

Couldn't agree more charlie

It's obvious he's improved for a fence, but if anyone is backing him off the back of the Dipper form I think they are asking for trouble.

As you note, Thunder Rock was a strange ride and no doubt would have won, IMO, had he not been put so far back, and on that basis not one person would even be talking about The Real Whacker now had that happened.

The better bet would be Thunder Rock in a handicap (obviously NRNB).

Daryl/Simon/Andy can talk time figures all they like, that's all they ever do, but time figures are not the be all and end all of horse racing otherwise everyone would use them solely and be millionaires off the back of them.

 

[Outlaw]

Daryl/Simon/Andy can talk time figures all they like, that's all they ever do, but time figures are not the be all and end all of horse racing otherwise everyone would use them solely and be millionaires off the back of them.

Crikey, was merely stating a few who have talked him up/analysed him. There not the be all and end all agreed, but he wouldn't of got half the coverage and price clips if nobody was doing that sort of stuff and looking at it purely on visuals. Swings and roundabouts.

 

[Quevega]

Haven't backed him and want him to lose at Cheltenham for a very silly and childish reason, so that afterwards, he can be called The Real Wanker

:highly_amused: I'd like him to win for childish reasons. So I can form a five a side team on here called "the Real Wankers"

Only joking before anyone starts.
COD - can be captain :highly_amused:

He's far too short now and so I can understand the reasons people would talk down his chances.
And I can even see a little bit in the points made.

But equally, I'd say "what are you worried about".
Stick to your guns, if he runs, let it run.

I thought they'd underestimated his performance when they left his price at 25's and 33's.
He's now too short.
But the comparison to the handicap is pertinent, especially the last circuit.
Thunder was entitled to close, a bit like Champ did in the RSA.
And his mark will definitely be of interest to me also.:encouragement: - Got a feeling he'll be left on 150 though. Which is a no from me in the Plate.

He could be this years Midnight Shadow if they drop him a couple (although he missed the festival, he made up for it that autumn) RIP :love_heart:

 

[Outlaw]

:highly_amused: I'd like him to win for childish reasons. So I can form a five a side team on here called "the Real Wankers"

Only joking before anyone starts.
COD - can be captain :highly_amused:

He's far too short now and so I can understand the reasons people would talk down his chances.
And I can even see a little bit in the points made.

But equally, I'd say "what are you worried about".
Stick to your guns, if he runs, let it run.

I thought they'd underestimated his performance when they left his price at 25's and 33's.
He's now too short.
But the comparison to the handicap is pertinent, especially the last circuit.
Thunder was entitled to close, a bit like Champ did in the RSA.
And his mark will definitely be of interest to me also.:encouragement: - Got a feeling he'll be left on 150 though. Which is a no from me in the Plate.

He could be this years Midnight Shadow if they drop him a couple (although he missed the festival, he made up for it that autumn) RIP :love_heart:

The voice of reason has spoken !

Touching on the Midnight Shadow comparison(RIP) This lad if he doesn't go close in whatever he runs in he'll be near top of the shortlist for the Nov Gc in and around 150 that's for sure.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Crikey, was merely stating a few who have talked him up/analysed him. There not the be all and end all agreed, but he wouldn't of got half the coverage and price clips if nobody was doing that sort of stuff and looking at it purely on visuals. Swings and roundabouts.

It wasn't a dig a you.....unless you're Daryl, Andy or Simon

 

[Quevega]

It wasn't a dig a you.....unless you're Daryl, Andy or Simon

:chargrined::amen:

 

[ComplyOrDie]

:highly_amused: I'd like him to win for childish reasons. So I can form a five a side team on here called "the Real Wankers"

Only joking before anyone starts.
COD - can be captain :highly_amused:

:highly_amused::highly_amused:

Feel like I touched a nerve going after Daryl, Andy and Simon.

Maybe they are on here in disguise. Think I may have been close to weeding them out!

 

[Outlaw]

It wasn't a dig a you.....unless you're Daryl, Andy or Simon

I know.... slightly odd thing to say thou given it can reveal plenty and tbf it gets brought up on here more than it ever has this last year. Tried(and failed) to get a few "Racing people" on here to no avail all far too busy they tell me :grey:.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I know.... slightly odd thing to say thou given it can reveal plenty and tbf it gets brought up on here more than it ever has this last year. Tried(and failed) to get a few "Racing people" on here to no avail all far too busy they tell me :grey:.

I don't discount times, not at all, but some pundits seem to only bang on about them, and them only. Like it's the only thing that matters. I'm just thinking do they have nothing else in their arsenal.

It's why I rate Gavin Lynch fairly highly, he'll go into breeding and ground conditions and other possibly smaller factors that could have an impact on a performance not solely keep referring to the clock.

 

[Outlaw]

I don't discount times, not at all, but some pundits seem to only bang on about them, and them only. Like it's the only thing that matters. I'm just thinking do they have nothing else in their arsenal.

It's why I rate Gavin Lynch fairly highly, he'll go into breeding and ground conditions and other possibly smaller factors that could have an impact on a performance not solely keep referring to the clock.

Fair response, Can't comment on Holding but the other two if you meet/interact with them at all you'll certainly get talking about all sorts and chat about some interesting things that get you thinking.

 

[Quevega]

Fair response, Can't comment on Holding but the other two if you meet/interact with them at all you'll certainly get talking about all sorts and chat about some interesting things that get you thinking.

Yeah holding is probably my least favourite.
Like Daryl a lot, and got a lot of time for Rowlands also.
Mainly cos I find myself disagreeing with Holding more than the others.
My least favourite tipster is Andrew Mount. Cos his obsession for looking for something that's not there is blinding him.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Fair response, Can't comment on Holding but the other two if you meet/interact with them at all you'll certainly get talking about all sorts and chat about some interesting things that get you thinking.

Yeah fair points.

I'm sure they have plenty more about them than what I seem to always notice, and in fact I was watching Daryl/Jamie/Dave on Cheltmental earlier, and quite like their previews of the individual races.

Andy Holding is by far the worst for it though.