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Maybe you could Just reason CH losing?

1. I don't think that beating Epatante twice, albeit effortlessly, equates to his current price.
2. I'm concerned that they're going straight to the Festival.
3. I suspect that State Man is still improving at a rate. I haven't backed anything yet and may even duck the race entirely but if you gave me a free bet now it would be State Man ew at 4/1 rather than Constitution Hill at 4/11.
 
1. I don't think that beating Epatante twice, albeit effortlessly, equates to his current price.
2. I'm concerned that they're going straight to the Festival.
3. I suspect that State Man is still improving at a rate. I haven't backed anything yet and may even duck the race entirely but if you gave me a free bet now it would be State Man ew at 4/1 rather than Constitution Hill at 4/11.

Open question to the forum - do many here play the lay side of things? Asked based off Johnny D on uping the ante talking about the lay positions he had taken over Christmas.

Surely it’s a very tricky side of the game
 
Wasn’t ready for so much negativity on here about Jonbons chances! Awful lot on here dismissing him!
 
Wasn’t ready for so much negativity on here about Jonbons chances! Awful lot on here dismissing him!

Think it's just people thinking Mullins Three Pronged Attack of Appreciate it, El Fabiolo and Dysart Dynamo may equate to Jonbons undoing. Of all the shorties he has the hardest task and will most likely go off a fair bit bigger than he currently is.
 
Out of interest, what odds the 10 fold? Someone on here will do it. I can't be assed to work it out:biggrin-new:
 
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1. I don't think that beating Epatante twice, albeit effortlessly, equates to his current price.
2. I'm concerned that they're going straight to the Festival.
3. I suspect that State Man is still improving at a rate. I haven't backed anything yet and may even duck the race entirely but if you gave me a free bet now it would be State Man ew at 4/1 rather than Constitution Hill at 4/11.

Thanks for the reply.
 
Wasn’t ready for so much negativity on here about Jonbons chances! Awful lot on here dismissing him!

I was!!
No surprise after reading various posts on here.
He probably is one of the most vulnerable of the shorties though being a novice chaser and a race that will have improvers from what we will have seen, inc him.
 
Facile Vega (Supreme) 4/5 (Big L - Stronger division this year, this horse wants a longer trip mark my words, manifesting getting chinned up the hill by Arctic Bresil)

Jonbon (Arkle) 11/8 (Another L - Dysart and Jonbon go off like Saint Calvados and petite Mouchoir, El Fabiolo picks up the pieces, Double Green devaju)

Constitution Hill (Champion hurdle) 4/11 (Wins, I think every trainer wants him in their yard Mullins is no different)

Gaillard du Mesnil (NH Chase) 6/4 (Wins, The other Classy horses will surely go to the BANC, Willie wants winners)

Energumene (Champion chase) 8/11 (L, sets a strong pace and Edwardstone picks him off up the hill)

Delta Work (Cross country) 7/4 (Wins by 10 lengths, Strongest fave at the festival)

Allaho (Ryanair) 7/4 (W, Best horse in the race, fitness is the doubt but nothing else in there is good enough)

Lossiemouth (Triumph) 6/4 (Wins, She just looks incredibly Classy)

Galopin des Champs (Gold Cup) 13/8 (L, A class horse but I think there will be drama here)

Allegorie De Vassy (Mares chase) 6/4 (W, if she goes here she wins by 10L)
 
Think it's just people thinking Mullins Three Pronged Attack of Appreciate it, El Fabiolo and Dysart Dynamo may equate to Jonbons undoing. Of all the shorties he has the hardest task and will most likely go off a fair bit bigger than he currently is.

Surely he won’t face all 3 though!? Mullins will do what Mullins does and arse around right up until the final minute ,think AI and Dysart Dynamo will come here,AI not quick enough and Dysart will pull his chance away,Jonbon to piss up.
 
Surely he won’t face all 3 though!? Mullins will do what Mullins does and arse around right up until the final minute ,think AI and Dysart Dynamo will come here,AI not quick enough and Dysart will pull his chance away,Jonbon to piss up.

I think this is entirely possible.
And his price will be bigger nearer the time.
I'll find it a hard race to call, with just one bet so far in Dysart back in April/May, I'll be glad with this outcome.
And can bet bigger on one of the other 2 nearer the time, one I think is the danger and one as a saver.
Got to respect El Fab also though and he could easily make the starting line up as well or instead of.
 
Facile Vega (Supreme) 4/5 lay
Jonbon (Arkle) 11/8 lay
Constitution Hill (Champion hurdle) 4/11 back
Gaillard du Mesnil (NH Chase) 6/4 lay

Energumene (Champion chase) 8/11 lay
Delta Work (Cross country) 7/4 back

Allaho (Ryanair) 7/4 lay

Lossiemouth (Triumph) 6/4 lay
Galopin des Champs (Gold Cup) 13/8 lay
Allegorie De Vassy (Mares chase) 6/4 back


Iv gone back or lay instead of win or lose. I see little to no value in these prices except for delta Work, who for me is the second likeliest winner of the week after the best horse iv ever seen in constitution hill.

Facile is plenty short this far out

We don't know how good jonbons rivals are, could see him at 2/1 on the dat

Gdm has an excellent chance but might not run and im not sure how much he actually likes winning

I do think energumene wins and likely with authority but wouldn't back him at 8/11 antepost

​​​​​​​allaho is a monster and miles better than anything in the division but has fitness concerns

gotta be a lay on Lossiemouth, 6/4 in the triumph this far out no thanks.

​​​​​​​galopin is the likely winner imo but he's too short
​​​​​​​
 
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Facile Vega (Supreme) 4/5 W
One of the toughest to weigh up for me. The price is real bad (worst value fav by a way IMO) but I think he will just do it. I can see his experience he gained in bumpers being a decisive factor and I think there are less experienced 2 mile hurdlers that may improve past him by the end of the season.

Jonbon (Arkle) 11/8 W
Seems a wildly unpopular opinion. His jumping is very good & will make the difference IMO. With the right trainer too

Constitution Hill (Champion hurdle) 4/11 W
Jumps round he wins

Gaillard du Mesnil (NH Chase) 6/4 L
His rating puts him there or their abouts but if it’s a renewal as hot as the last 2 or 3 will be I think he may find one better. Seems harsh to say about a horse that’s just won a grade 1 but he does sometimes seem like one that finds it hard to win, especially over fences. Harder to see where the challenge will come from than it has been in past years at this point though I must add, I find chemical energy hard to get to grips with.

Energumene (Champion chase) 8/11 W
No big opinion just think on what we’ve seen he brings a slightly higher level of form/ability then Edwardstone

Delta Work (Cross country) 7/4 W
Just don’t see what beats him. At 10 years old there’s no reason he shouldn’t be fine in this.

Allaho (Ryanair) 7/4 L
In the likely non-runner box at this time and a horse that’s notoriously not at his best first time out going straight to the race would be a worry also.

Lossiemouth (Triumph) 6/4 W
Very good juvenile on what we’ve seen so far. Challenge from Gordon & GB looks thin on the ground. Stablemate she beat the last day the danger to possibly improve past her NTO but she has looked a bit special, won a tough race first time up when market support had been so-so speaks to her ability I think

Galopin des Champs (Gold Cup) 13/8 L
Relatively little experience in staying contests & no runs over 3m as a chaser (assume next run will be Irish GC) I can see something a bit less classy but a more powerful stayer outgrinding him to win

Allegorie De Vassy (Mares chase) 6/4 W​
Not many past renewals to go off of but think she will be a class above the likely opposition here. Think chances she takes on the boys are slim never mind in a year where trainer seems to have so much ammo to spread around in the novice chasing division
 
Facile Vega (Supreme) 4/5 - L Didn't look as good LTO and on the basis that they don't all win, this is my sacrificial lamb
Jonbon (Arkle) 11/8 - W Henderson knows how to train a 2m chaser (or hurdler for that matter, for me he just edges Dysart
Constitution Hill (Champion hurdle) 4/11 - W No text required
Gaillard du Mesnil (NH Chase) 6/4 - L On the basis that he may go BANC i'm happy to look at others now for this

Energumene (Champion chase) 8/11 W Very confident that he has the beating of Edwardstone, and i think Blue Lord may go Ryanair
Delta Work (Cross country) 7/4 W Unless Galvin appears here i just can't see anything else improving past him

Allaho (Ryanair) 7/4 L Where is he ? Seriously, i would be concerned with no entries up to now and if Blue Lord comes here i think he may be good enough to beat him. Nobody wind this 3 times in a row !!

Lossiemouth (Triumph) 6/4 L Has the best chance on known form but i feel he may find one better on the day
Galopin des Champs (Gold Cup) 13/8 W Fairly sure he's the best here particularly after APT's last race
Allegorie De Vassy (Mares chase) 6/4 W Just think that she's clearly the best in the race

6 for me
​
 
Facile Vega - W
Like opatcho says, starting to look like the year of Appreciate It's win.
The British challenge is thinning out.
Some of the other Mullins horses with big reputations (Quais de Paris, Parmenion...) have come out recently but disappointed to varying degrees) so challenges from his own yard don't look overly strong.
I actually would quite like to take him on.
I just want to see him tested a bit more and involved in a race with a bit more substance pre festival (like Appreciate It had) - hopefully that comes at the DRF.
Marine Nationale will be the unknown coming fresh into the race.

Jonbon - L
Has done nothing wrong. Rightful favourite right now.
But this is arguably the toughest race of the lot in terms of depth.
Could well have 3 or 4 horses of similar ability in the race, with his opposition all coming from Mullins.
Probably has the hardest task of all of these listed, hence why i'll go for a loss.

Constitution Hill - W
The first of many champion hurdles.

Gaillard du Mesnil - W
Has all the hallmarks of Run Wild Fred last season who jumped off the page for the race and had everything going for him.
But I don't think there will be anything as classy or as good as Stattler in the race.

Energumene - L
2 horse race. Think the pair will produce a great race.
He's a serious horse.
But Edwardstone to just about come out on top. His Tingle Creek win was very good.

Delta Work - W
Absolutely nothing in the division. Galvin coming here changes the complexion of the race, and whilst I think that could happen. And would like it too.
Until that's mentioned again as an option, he has nothing to fear.

Allaho - L
A trouble free campaign and it wouldn't even be up for discussion.
But this will be his fifth festival in a row. 9 years old. Going for three wins in the race in a row.
Not ideal and you really need everything to fall into place in that scenerio imo.
The likes of BMG and Conflated could really have put it up to him, but will go elsewhere (rightfully so)
So i still struggle to give you the winner, but he's got the most question marks, at least until we see him again.

Lossiemouth - W
I'm never overly confident with juveniles.
But she looks top class.
The 7lb allowance is a huge benefit for mares, we've seen it time and time again at the festival. Not in this race specifically. But that may well change this year.
Mullins has a complete stranglehold of the race. And could easily have the 1-2-3.
If she gets beat, it's probably by a stablemate.

Galopin des Champs - W
A superstar. And if A Plus Tard doesn't come back to form the race won't have another in there. (albeit plenty of good horses that i rate)
Obviously the trip is an unknown.
And ground could well decide his chances.
But he could end up scooting clear, in a similar vein to last years winner.
I do actually think his GC chances would be greater if he were to go Ryanair > Gold Cup (2024) like Don Cossack, A Plus Tard, Imperial Commander.
But it's great they are going for Gold.

Allegorie de Vassy - W
At 6 years old - We'll have the next few seasons talking how we want to see her tackle the boys, and she may even do so now and again.
But she'll then mop up this race for the next couple of renewals.
Whilst never really knowing how she would have fared in a Ryanair / Gold Cup
 
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I think this is entirely possible.
And his price will be bigger nearer the time.
I'll find it a hard race to call, with just one bet so far in Dysart back in April/May, I'll be glad with this outcome.
And can bet bigger on one of the other 2 nearer the time, one I think is the danger and one as a saver.
Got to respect El Fab also though and he could easily make the starting line up as well or instead of.

I've always considered El Fabiolo a certainty for the Arkle based on his close Second to Jonbon at Aintree. The DRF will obviously be the decider but at this time I'd be certain that he'd be a shoe in for the race based on that run alone.

What a race to look forward to though. We are going to be proper spoilt to this year.
 
I've always considered El Fabiolo a certainty for the Arkle based on his close Second to Jonbon at Aintree. The DRF will obviously be the decider but at this time I'd be certain that he'd be a shoe in for the race based on that run alone.

What a race to look forward to though. We are going to be proper spoilt to this year.

Especially since the owners of dysart and Appreciate it will both want townend on

Whereas Jacob can ride el fabiolo
 
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Especially since the owners of dysart and Appreciate it will both want townend on

Whereas Jacob can ride el fabiolo

Not even crossed my mind but a very, very good point made.
 
Dysart and el fab arkle
AI and JDB turner's

Paul on one Jacob on the suede and munir horses

has to be a possibility

Very possible. Do you think Kilcruit will run at the Fez and are you thinking MC to the BANC ?