2017 Cheltenham Gold Cup

[Istabraq]

I can't imagine anyone wanting to back Coneygree at this stage.
Supremely talented but unbelievably fragile, one visit to a racecourse in 18 months and just 11 lifetime runs in five years.
You must want to not only see him run well on Saturday but also come out of the race OK with no setbacks, I'd also like to see a second seasonal run before I'd be interested, in fact, if he made it to March I'd be very interested myself but I will probably wait until the day of the race before unloading.

The double you (jono) have for him to win the Betfair and King George is a real stretch for me, being fit enough to win after such a long absence is one thing but then recovering quickly enough to race 5 weeks later is almost as tough.
I'm sure the odds reflect this but I do hope you have very nice odds...

 

[MrMcGoldrick]

Just asked the question of Coneygree on another part of the forum, answered here already, haven't posted much lately so I obviously needed the run

 

[Istabraq]

Just asked the question of Coneygree on another part of the forum, answered here already, haven't posted much lately so I obviously needed the run

LOL.
As I said, the older you get the more time it takes to hit full form....

 

[Old Vic]

Ruby made some comment about Cue Card head carriage LTO. hard to find a bet

 

[jono]

being fit enough to win after such a long absence is one thing but then recovering quickly enough to race 5 weeks later is almost as tough.

I'd be stupid to say the horse wasn't fragile and is not a risk that he'll stay sound but regarding the above, in his Gold Cup winning season the horse had been off for 671 days before his comeback run on November 28th at Newbury. He then followed that run up on Boxing Day at Kempton so he's faced a similar situation before, this time with less time off the track and an extra week between races. Now of course there's a huge leap in quality in those 2 novice races and now the Betfair Chase against Cue Card and then the King George but i'm not too worried about the gap between these 2 races. They may not be any good on a computer but I'm very confident they can get the horse spot on for the Betfair Chase.

On the having the double - tell a lie actually. I was looking at the double when it was 25/1 and then when it got down to 20/1 I was going to take it but took the 5/1 on just the Betfair but hopefully the winnings will then be put straight onto the King George. All I need is 5/2 or bigger for the KG and it'll be better than 20/1 which I think is likely.

I do worry about the horse long term though which has put me off so far betting antepost for the Gold Cup. I just think if he can stay sound it'll be between him and Thistlecrack for whoever wins it, right now at least.

Ruby made some comment about Cue Card head carriage LTO. hard to find a bet

Just seen those quotes from Lydia Hislops column today. Here's the full quotes on Cue Card:

There were little bits of Wetherby that reminded me of the Cue Card of a couple of years ago when I thought he was home and hosed in the King George and Silviniaco Conti nabbed him on the line.

"I thought his head got quite high and he jumped the second last with a lot of air that day in the King George. He did the same at Wetherby [whereas, if] you see him at Aintree last year, his head is much lower and his nose is out in front of him.

Walsh also said this about Djakadam for anyone who hasn't seen these:

I wouldn't be certain Djakadam ran as good a race in [the 2016] Gold Cup as he did the year before.

I don't know why - he jumped super but he definitely didn't pick up as he did the year before, although he never stopped and galloped all the way to the line.

That chimed with me, Djakadam's number-one stalker; I had the same sensation watching last season's race live. Number-crunchers will argue the Don Cossack second is the better performance on figures, but that doesn't necessarily mean it was all he might have been capable of.

There are two ways to underpin my theory, to my mind: the training setback caused by the cut he'd sustained in his BetBright Chase fall in January, which Walsh cited as a possible factor, or the fact the ground was softer when he was a rallying second to Coneygree in 2015.

...Don Cossack beat me sort of five lengths. I think he didn't do a whole pile in front - I'm not even sure if Bryan Cooper used his whip on him.

I think Djakadam would have got beaten a good bit further had Cue Card stood up. I don't know what would have won, but I think Don Cossack and Cue Card would have gone further away from me

 

[Kevloaf]

She goes on to tip Djakadam each way doesn't she... :very_drunk:

You don't get positive vibes about Djakadam from Ruby, at any point. If Vautour would have lined up last season, I wouldn't for a second think he'd have been on him. I know Ruby 'famously' got it wrong in a Gold Cup before but if Djakadam was close to being "the best horse" in the Gold Cup, they would be more positive. Noises usually seem to be "don't forget about him"... well the reason we do, is because you don't talk him up!

I am actually on each way at 16's, because I think for a horse to have placed twice, and only be 8 by March, with Ruby on board (I thought Vautour would end up in Ryanair) that he would go off considerably shorter. I don't see Douvan lining up either so not a bad position for now in my opinion...

 

[Vanilla]

It's the potential with Thistlecrack which is appealing to me.

Sure he showed his inexperience at the two open ditches, but he put in two great leaps to get over them.

Hopefully some schooling and a couple of truly run races sort out his novicey jumps.

The gold cup needs him to make the line up.

 

[jono]

The gold cup needs him to make the line up.

100%.

It would be a massive shame if Thistlecrack doesn't run in the Gold Cup. It's adding a huge amount of intrigue into the race, and when you consider that Vautour is no longer around and it wouldn't be at all surprising if both Don Cossack and Coneygree were to miss the race through injury then the race starts to lack star names.

Add to that the Champion Chase could more than likely make Douvan the shortest odds in the Champion Chase history. The Champion Hurdle looks like it'll go to whoever runs out of Annie Power and Faugheen. Then you have the World Hurdle.

We desperately need at least one of the Championship races to have some intrigue, debate and uncertainty.

Thistlecrack only has 1 factor to overcome to win the race for me, i know it's a rather large one but it's his jumping which is the only issue. We know he can jump a fence like an absolute natural, just whether he can do it in a Gold Cup.
Trip, Speed, Stamina, Course form, class, Wellbeing...everything else he has in abundance

 

[jono]

I am actually on each way at 16's, because I think for a horse to have placed twice, and only be 8 by March, with Ruby on board (I thought Vautour would end up in Ryanair) that he would go off considerably shorter. I don't see Douvan lining up either so not a bad position for now in my opinion...

He's the stand out each-way bet in the race for sure at those prices. I'm looking at some each way multiples and he's a certainty to be in some of them each way. I can understand why connections are always a tad downbeat on the horse. He has obviously proved he can mix it with the very best chasers around but just hasn't got the class to come out on top for me. Take a look at his grade 1 form:

232122F

He's come close and maybe i'm being harsh but that puts me off him winning, and why I think Walsh, Mullins etc are always never talking him up too much. It does of course highlight just how consistent he is in even the best races. Taking a look over his wins and you'll see:

- Grade 1 Chase win against Valseur Lido (the 1 win i those runs above) which to be fair looks strong
- Thyestes Handicap win albeit off top weight
- Grade 2 Chase win against Bright New Dawn
- Beginners Chase win against Si C'etait Vrai

Not the greatest back catalog of winners

 

[Morning Glory]

Djakadam the new Giant Bolster

I seem to remember something from previews Ruby being very dismissive of horses who have had two goes and not won the Gold Cup achieving it on third attempt.

 

[billymag]

I think the Ew play at this stage is Zabana, he needs good ground but at the prices id much rather chance one that is 40/1 unexposed at 3 miles plus. You are taking a risk coz of the ground and obviously he has to get past the start line!!! But happy to play at that price and heading off into town to put an ew bet on with the good folk at Hills. (I accept he might get beat in the winter if the ground is too soft and he might drift).

 

[Kevloaf]

Djakadam the new Giant Bolster

I seem to remember something from previews Ruby being very dismissive of horses who have had two goes and not won the Gold Cup achieving it on third attempt.

I'm sure people would have made money backing The Bolster!

Yeah he isn't the only one either... but Djakadam has a different profile to most. Still got 2 of his potential best years ahead of him.

 

[cwright23]

Really impressed by cue card today..looked like his best from last year.. Travels so well into his races by the time paddy asks him to kick in he's already put the race to bed.. 4/1 a bit of an over reaction if I'm honest but 16/1 for KG and GC double looks fair

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

He was brilliant today. Coneygree didn't miss a beat but was just beat by the better horse on the day. A really enjoyable race.

 

[paz247]

He was brilliant today. Coneygree didn't miss a beat but was just beat by the better horse on the day. A really enjoyable race.

Do you think better horse because of fitness or just better horse? How do you think they will fair come March should both line up?

 

[Kevloaf]

The higher rated horse, who had a prep run, won. I wouldn't be confident saying he'd uphold that form in either race, but he could in both.

Really enjoyable to watch. Cue Card clearly has held his form to a high enough degree to be a huge player in both races!

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

I think Cue Card is the better horse. Coneygree would be a major player in the Gold Cup if it was soft ground.

 

[Kevloaf]

Can't argue with that... I think they'd be closer next time, but Cue Card won readily enough.

I think CC 7/1 is brilliant for the Gold Cup.... (certainly compared to 7/1 for Fox Norton in the Champion Chase!!!!) Absolutely nailed on target and I can't have him out of the 3, POSSIBLY if Don Cossack, Douvan and Thistlecrack turned up, they might be shorter in the betingr, but even so... plenty of doubts about all 3


**edit - I am not on at all, other than £1 at 341/1 on the Tri[le Crown** .... Had to place that to prove to somebody that you can get better odds doing it yourself than taking the special.... Should have had more then £1 on haha

 

[billymag]

How did you get the 341/1 Kev did you do a straight treble?

 

[Kevloaf]

How did you get the 341/1 Kev did you do a straight treble?

Yeh, with SJ. I think the racing post on facebook had posted about the triple crown and the odds and I just wanted to highlight to people you'd be crazy to put it on at 50/1 when you can get bigger odds by putting it in yourself. A few people gave me some abuse saying it can't be done and I am an idiot, so I put £1 on and took a screen shot of it to prove it could be done.... I think it is horrible trhat bookies do things like that, you have to be so careful with any "enhanced" prices.... it is hard enough to pick winners, without worrying about being mugged by your bookie!