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2017 Champion Chase

  • Thread starter Thread starter Morning Glory
  • Start date Start date
Oddschecker best prices 9/10/16

Douvan - EVEN
Sprinter Sacre - 5/1
Un De Sceaux - 16/1
Vroum Vroum Mag - 16/1
Gods Own - 20/1
Simonsig - 20/1
Ar Mad - 25/1
Vautour - 25/1
Special Tiara - 25/1
Dodging Bullets - 33/1
Traffic Fluide - 33/1
Vaniteux - 33/1
Lami Serge 40/1
Sizing John - 40/1

UDS, VVM, Dodging Bullets, Traffic Fluide, Simonsig, Vautour all have other targets from trainers comment so far... that leaves:

Douvan - EVEN
Sprinter Sacre - 5/1
Gods Own - 20/1
Ar Mad - 25/1
Special Tiara - 25/1
Vaniteux - 33/1
Lami Serge 40/1
Sizing John - 40/1

Sizing John, L'Ami Serge, Vaniteux all have been beaten by Douvan either over hurdles or fences and hard to imagine they'll improve past him or get particularly close? That leaves me with:


Douvan - EVEN
Sprinter Sacre - 5/1
Gods Own - 20/1
Ar Mad - 25/1
Special Tiara - 25/1


God's Own better right handed and was 4th in the race this year so hard to see where the improvement will come from at the festival? I'm happy to rule him out for this particular race.

Similar comments about Ar Mad, better right handed, would definitely be a concern and has only got a neck beating of Vaniteux in the book and that was a great ride on the day. 'Stole the race' kinda job in my opinion (which I was pleased about as I backed it on the day!) ... however, I'd be confident Douvan has Vaniteux covered in the Arkle and therefore think Ar Mad would need to improve plenty which is hard after an injury?

Happy to rule Ar Mad out, (although I have got him in the odd multiple) :heart-borken: ... down to 3

Special Tiara was 3rd last year, went off faster than perhaps wanted to, to take UDS out of its comfort zone? Only just went down by a nose on the run in for 3rd and they were both closing in on Sprinter Sacre... I think at 5 times the price of SS, and the chance that SS might disgress could tempt me...

Sprinter Sacre has the age stats to defy. (I absolutely love this horse.) I'd like nothing more than Sprinter to win again, but with my betting head on, despite looking like an each way steal, considering Special Tiara is a year younger and less likely to digress, if I was going to back a horse at the moment, it'd be ST each way... The horse doesn't owe anyone anything and I am a bit surprised he is racing again this season after regaining the Champion Chase crown.

If you back those two each way, and the novices turn out to be no good in open company, we're on a winner... if the novices (and therefore Douvan) look special, then I can't see the market changing much anyway! Douvan will be no shorter than 4/6 (Unless he meets, and beats SS prior to the festival) which is highly unlikely!

There is also that small chance that Douvan goes for the KIng George, wins it on the snaff and goes for the Gold Cup... I think, THINK, I might have a bet on SS and ST each way... and on the day, get whipped up in the hype and smash Douvan up!
 
'God's Own better right handed and was 4th in the race this year so hard to see where the improvement will come from at the festival? I'm happy to rule him out for this particular race.'

Dangerous Kevloaf, he was tanking behind UDS in their Arkle until he drifted towards the stands and missed the last.
He improved hand over fist last season too and if he gets his preferred quick ground he is a real player for me...
 
The improvement came from going right handed though?
Drifting right after tanking along would put me off though, as it'll be on the same track.
His price is fair, and a lot of my comments are just very quick to eliminate a lot of horses, when of course I could be wrong numerous times... but I'd be shocked (and disappointed) if God's Own was good enough to win a champion chase.
 
Its a 2 horse race. Nothing else will be good enough in my opinion to beat Sprinter or Douvan. Its the one race where I wouldn't be looking for a big price to back antepost (not that I would back against Sprinter anyway) because I don't think anyone is realistically good enough to beat both horses. One could have an off day but not both. So there is no win value to the ew bet.

I hope both go unbeaten (Sprinter holds his form because bar a fall nothing touches either) and we have the big clash in March.
 
Possibly kevloaf, I'd just be wary of any horse that improved so dramatically.
He hasn't been tested on left handed tracks since and could show similar improvement going the other way.

There were a few doubting voices around Thistlecrack when he won the Sefton a couple of years ago, one of two said he was better going right righted after he flopped behind some average animals on Trials Day and the 25/1 Aintree win was a freak...
 
Gods Own is underrated. Multiple G1 winner.
 
Needs firm ground though.. Good to soft on the Wednesday won't be enough
 
KingSprinterSacre said:
Its a 2 horse race. Nothing else will be good enough in my opinion to beat Sprinter or Douvan. Its the one race where I wouldn't be looking for a big price to back antepost (not that I would back against Sprinter anyway) because I don't think anyone is realistically good enough to beat both horses. One could have an off day but not both. So there is no win value to the ew bet.

I hope both go unbeaten (Sprinter holds his form because bar a fall nothing touches either) and we have the big clash in March.
Click to expand...

Racing that can be enjoyed without a bet.
 
There were a few doubting voices around Thistlecrack when he won the Sefton a couple of years ago, one of two said he was better going right righted after he flopped behind some average animals on Trials Day and the 25/1 Aintree win was a freak...
Click to expand...

This REALLY REALLY annoyed me last year (though I did use it to my advantage) I kept hearing this leading up to the his run on Trials day that he flopped when he ran at the course and it was the one concern with his price for the WH. I was amazed at this perception. That day the odds were:

Value at Risk 11/10F
Present View 6/1
Robinsfirth 7/1
Vago Collanges 8/1
Stiletto 10/1
Native River & Ordo Ab Chao 16/1
Thistlecrack & Some Buckle 25/1

He was a 25/1 shot - joint bottom odds!! Not only that he was the yards clear Third string on the day with Scudamore and Jacob jocked up on Native River and Robinsfirth.

...it actually amazed me how people thought that...:confused:
 
I hope Douvan turns up for the Tingle Creek... UDS was aimed at it, Ricci loves a bit of Sandown and you;d imagine some of last seasons CC form will be represented.... could all but end this as a discussion :sorrow:

I heard Traffic Fluide get tipped up for this, does anyone remember comments from Gary Moore, who I seem to think said Ar Mad would be more a 2 miler and TF more likely to step up in trip.... (I see he is shorter for the Ryanair)... but not heard that race mentioned. Not heard about either horse actually yet
 
Fox Norton looked fairly good... impossible to oppose Douvan.
 
Fox Norton was very impressive there. Looks a completely different animal this year and I think quotes of 7's are fair, third course win in a row in a wide open (Douvan aside) race.

I still think Ar Mad could equally come into the reckoning and look forward to how he fares in the Tingle Creek. Fox Norton is likely to go there next so the sorting order behind Douvan should be much clearer after that race.
 
I think Fox Norton has just exposed exactly how poor the two mile chase division has been. The fact he did look so good, after being whipped in the Arkle, is not a ringing endorsement for the open company?

I am not taking the Arkle form literally, (The Game Changer not doing anything since etc) but Douvan was absolutely whipping those, and I'd want at least 25/1 for Fox Norton to beat Douvan. No point backing at 7/1 as an each way price as you (jono) have put forward in another post somewhere...

Ar Mad at 25s is alright, and he'll likely go off shorter... but if Fox Norton ends up as 2nd favourite, then on the day, I will be having a bet at much more than I can afford, at anything less than 1/5.
 
Is Vaniteaux not worth a bet at 33/1? Obviously fell at the last in Douvan's Arkle, but looked to have a big big shout for a clear 2nd and would be as likely as Fox Norton to have improved this season??

Not heard anything about it since Aintree (where he ran over further, over smaller obstacles) .... but form ties in with Ar Mad too, who MAY be more of a Sandown specialist and got a good ride that day...

I'd look at any alternative to Fox Norton at 6/1. I can't believe that price.
 
I thought Fox Norton was excellent, and id rate that run around 170 which would be good enough to place in a Champion Chase. Be interesting to see what RPR or OR it gets, i rated him through simply ned which seems reasonable-ish. I couldnt have Fox Norton out the 3 if he gets there in the same form. 7/1 might look big when Douvan wins the King George and they decide to go for the Gold Cup ;-)
 
It might well be good enough to place but 7/1 isn't worth getting on now.... if douvan did turn up and fox norton has won the tingle Creek and a couple more he'd still be 4/1.

I'm not crabbing the form of the race, I'm saying it makes douvan a racing certainty, so to back an each way at single figures now would be more brave than smart ... ��

I think UDS is a better bet and he might not turn up lol
 
Fox norton RPR is 170 which matches the figure achieved by UDS and Special Tiara in the Champ Chase last year when they were both all out, think its fair to say that Fox Norton had a bit more effort to give and he looks a certainty to place if he gets to the festival in the same form. Id never be afraid of backing against one horse especially if that horse might be going for a king george. If he did run in the KG and win it, then surely they would have to go for Gold. I fully accept though that Douvan if he runs in this race looks all over the winner, but Fox Norton has clearly improved an awful lot and looks a different horse this year, which horses sometimes do, I wouldnt underestimate him 170 is a huge rating for this time of year.
 
That rating of 170 is exactly what would put me off though billy... it seems way to good to be true?!

ST all out in the CC last year (170) is no where near the horse that appeared this weekend... first run of the season, against a horse than in probably close to as fit as he can be, after having a handicap debut then big target at the Open Meeting...

I'd still rather chance Ar Mad at 25 or Vaniteux at 33.

On the form he has shown so far, Douvan must need to improve... I just don't trust that rating. The trainer didn't even seem sure what or when the next race would be afterwards... bless him.
 
Out of the Novices, FN certainly seems to have come on fantastic, we will have to wait and see how a Sizing John performs when he steps into open company and of course Douvan. Even if they go to the KG with Douvan I think Ricci is keen to stick to the Champion Chase no matter what happens
 
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