2017 Champion Chase

[Kevloaf]

Ok so lets bring it back to the CC, Douvan as you point out, has only been at that trip. So whether or not people hype him as staying further is largely irrelevant for now.

I appreciate that the price might be wrong, I'd be interested to know what price do you a) think he should be? b) think he would be if trained by Paul Nicholls? c) think he would be if trained by Dan Skelton?

Or, what price you'd back him at if the race was tomorrow based on the market as it is now?

 

[oceans]

a) 5/1 2nd fav behind SS, b) 3/1 5/2 if trained by PN, c) 5/1 if trained by Skelton. If race was tomorrow I'd back him at 2/1 if Ar Mad and SS hadn't put any encouraging performances during the winter and 4/1 if those 2 mentioned put in a impressive display during the trials.

If I knew for sure UDS would also take part in the race then I wouldn't back Douvan below 5/1 as I think UDS is a better horse and with SS one year older then he would be my selection. Ruby also got the tactics wrong in the CC and followed Special Tiara too closely so if Paul would be on UDS I would include him in all the multiples, thats how strongly I'd view UDS if I was sure he would be in the race.

 

[Kevloaf]

Interesting. UDS only seems to have one tactic though, which is go at his own pace? I think Patrick Mullins suggested UDS's most likely target is the Ryanair. I think UDS would deserve another crack and on the actual bare form, he battled back to get second and has a 2nd is the Champion Chase to the greatest two miler I think I'll ever see.

HOWEVER, I think you are way too dismissive of how important the connections are when it is in their own stable. UDS was SO good over 2 miles, that they avoided him with Vautour... who ended up in the JLT. Hindsight probably shows that is a better trip for Vautour, but I feel very strongly that they thought UDS was a better 2 miler. With that being the case, they'll have been able to work Douvan with UDS and there, to my mind, is no way that they won't know who would win that. I feel that is factored in to his price for sure, but if UDS was better than Douvan over 2 miles, then there would be absolutely no talk whatsoever of Douvan going for the champion chase. If Mullins knew, they'd try Douvan over the longer trip! You said it yourself that the hype says he goes further, so if UDS was a better two miler, why oh why would they have Douvan lining up in this race?

 

[oceans]

To your last question the answer is simple, Mullins always places the horses at what they're best at(after he discovers it) and Douvan's only form is over 2 therefore he won't change that.

As for UDS, his connections will do what Mullins tells them and that will mean Ruby influence as well who won't want to get beat by UDS. Douvan will stay home in the trials, beat some below standard horses and go straight to Chelt with his odds collapsed. Ruby would look stupid to get off the odds-on favourite so he won't accept to run against UDS and he'll do everything to get him out of CC. UDS connections don't have a say on this, they are lucky to have horses with Mullins, not vice-versa. Of course I'd like to see him compete and try to go one better this season but that won't be allowed.

 

[Kevloaf]

So you don't think Mullins will have any idea, until the track proves it, whether Douvan can beat any other horse in the yard, over any other distance than 2miles?

If Ruby thought he would 'get beat' by UDS, he would be on UDS. He has the pick for a reason. If Douvan is his best chance of winning the Champion Chase, he'll be riding him, in the Champion Chase.

If UDS and Douvan both got declared now for the Champion Chase, and Ruby decided he would ride UDS, then the prices would almost certainly flip flop... because it would be perceived that UDS had a better chance of winning., (If that did happen Sprinter would probably shorten but its hypothetical)

 

[jono]

If I knew for sure UDS would also take part in the race then I wouldn't back Douvan below 5/1 as I think UDS is a better horse

Surely UDS falls into the exact same hype horse that didn't live up to the hype has the same 'flaws' as Douvan (and Vautour)?

His hurdle races consisted of wide margin wins against sub standard opposition at extreme odds on prices. He bypassed all the festivals and took in a couple of races in France, with the beating of Gemix probably the standout horse he beat. A lot of hype of him but you could argue no substance to back it up...

Going chasing he fell on debut against agin weak opposition. Next race he beat Smashing who's a good horse but over a trip too short for Smashing. His next race at the time looked brilliant but looking back Clarcam despite winning a grade 1 at Aintree is running in handicaps and the same with Gilgamboa (who could only finish 5th in that Ryanair which Vautour won (10 lengths back). He went into the Arkle a massive favourite and hype horse just like Douvan did and i'd say beat similar level horses. Finished the season at Punchestown where he struggled to beat Just Cameron!

Sounds pretty similar to Douvan surely? And i'd argue Douvan proved much more up until this point.

Then in open company the season just gone he's fallen again, beaten Sire de Grugy at Ascot, then comprehensively beaten twice at Cheltenham and Sandown. To finish the season they reverted back to hurdles over in France as 2 completely new trips.

I really don't know how you can be keen on UDS but then dismiss Douvan...

 

[paz247]

Everyone in the Mullins yard will know exactly what can do what and how things might pan out in races. Ruby WILL choose what he believes is his best chance of winning a race and after the last CC when UDS was beaten he will naturally look at Douvan who so far has been flawless in what he has done, wether against mediocre horses or not. He will have no doubt sat and talked with WM and RR regarding Vautour's race to go for at the fest last time and they got it right with the win, again wether against mediocre horses but they got the win, and that is the name of the game really, to have the best horse in its best chance race to WIN come the festivals and that's what they will do no matter how much we debate ( which is great by the way ) we just need to think about this when it comes to the betting

 

[oceans]

my view is entirely different juno, yes UDS failed to win the CC but against one of the best 2 mile chasers there has been and when using a tactic that went wrong and could've easily went the other way around, he was only beaten 3 lengths in the end. At Sandown he badly blundered 3 out and made another jumping mistake at the next fence so I wouldn't take that at face value. Now, looking back on UDS career he is unbeaten up to 2 and half miles except by SS who again is one of the best 2 mile chasers of all time. What has Douvan remotely done to compare with UDS ? Nothing except beating 1-2 horses that are average at best. Saying that Douvan has anything on UDS is wishful thinking until he proves it on the track, USD form being vastly superior.

 

[jono]

What was your view on UDS after his novice season? Did he beat anyone better or prove anything more than what Douvan has?

Here's the second place horses they have beaten, the OR of that horse and the distance

UDS over hurdles
Sammy Black OR107 - 6L
Moscow Mannon OR 133 - 13L
Rory O'Moore OR126 - 29L
Akatara OR104 - 53L
Midnight Game OR140 - 16L
Le Grand Luce - 2.5L

UDS over fences
Fell
Smashing OR148 - 12L
Clarcam OR156 - 15L
Gods Own OR160 - 6L <-- Arkle
Just Cameron OR148 -3L

Douvan over hurdles
Sizing John OR123 - 12L
Alpha des Obeaux OR136 - 3.5L
Shaneshill OR150 - 4.5L
Sizing John OR151 - 7.5L

Douvan over fences
Rogue Trader - 9.5L
Sizing John OR151 - 18L
Velvet Maker OR143 - 15L
Sizing John OR150 - 7L <-- Arkle
The Game Changer OR151 - 14L
The Game Changer OR151 - 11L

He's proved it against any opposition up until this point and i'd argue against better horses than UDS faced.
They'll always be a question mark until he steps into open company but he's done everything asked of him so far.

By the way this isn't meant to be a dig on UDS. I like the horse and like mentioned by kevloaf was a worthy favourite for the race. I actually think by trying to take out some of the exuberance of the horse and making him settle better they comprised some of his ability and have held him back a little too.

 

[oceans]

During his 2nd season as a hurdler I naturally thought UDS was going for the CH. But alas his connections had no choice but to be forced watching their horse being paraded overseas and in lower graded races than he deserved because Mullins had a certain love affair with Hurricane Fly and didn't wanted anything from his yard to challenge him.

This madness of protecting HF even cost AP a CH in 2014 and Faugheen an Irish CH in 2015 so UDS wasn't the only one affected but once he finally made it to novice chases he beat Smashing by 12 and 30 lengths, Clarcam by 15 and 32 lengths, Gilgamboa by 15, God's Own by 6, then in open company SDG by 5 and beaten by 3 lengths by SS. Douvan in his novice beat a horse called Sizing John who Arzal beat by 24 lengths, beat a horse called The Game Changer who in the same season finished 2 lengths behind Clarcam(yes the same one) whilst receiving 4 pounds from him.

Douvan's novice level of form is still lagging behind UDS. Counting on what has UDS achieved in open company then Douvan has a hill to climb only to equal his performances. Even at the height of UDS potential I never heard anyone saying he would've given Faugheen a race over hurdles, but with Douvan thats all I hear from the reporters and on forums, the nerves to call Douvan the best in Mullins yard because he said he's the best work horse is ridiculous. The fact he's doing what is asked is a good sign of a willing horse during races, it also means he has a good constitution and his height allows him to easily jump the fences than a short horse like UDS who fell twice due to his size and small margin of error. But from these positive things to his current price for the CC is a long way.

 

[jono]

Douvan's novice level of form is still lagging behind UDS. Counting on what has UDS achieved in open company then Douvan has a hill to climb only to equal his performances.

Of course any horse that comes into open company has it to prove against the 'current crop' who have been there, done it and have had another year to improve. That's a question mark for every horse regardless of how good they were as a novice. That's why I'm trying not to bring in what UDS has done in open company as I'm trying to compare UDS after his novice chase season. A 2nd in a champion chase is strong form that can't be knocked but Douvans had no chance to run at that level yet.

I think hurdles form has to be considered and i'd say the likes of Shaneshill, Alpha des Obeaux and Sizing John was a lot stronger than UDS's hurdle victories. But I do think UDS's beating of God's Own is probably the pick of all the horses they have both beaten over fences.
But really it's safe to say there are no standout horses in either of their lists that make you go wow. Both horses had the over top novices those years (Vautour, Garde L'Victoire, Killultagh Vic, L'ami Serge) go JLT to avoid them so most of the horses they were beating will never have the best form to look back on. I think it's pretty subjective to whose form looks the best, plus you have the hindsight of that extra year in UDS's Arkle win for who the other horses progressed on. (i.e Gods Own looks much better form now after the season just gone)

During his 2nd season as a hurdler I naturally thought UDS was going for the CH. But alas his connections had no choice but to be forced watching their horse being paraded overseas and in lower graded races than he deserved because Mullins had a certain love affair with Hurricane Fly and didn't wanted anything from his yard to challenge him.

You sound like you were pretty sweet on UDS chances in a champion hurdle that year. What piece of form over hurdles in this list:

Sammy Black
Moscow Mannon
Rory O'Moore
Akatara
Midnight Game
Le Grand Luce

Gave him any chance of winning a Champion Hurdle or meaning he deserved a place running in it? I agree Hurricane Fly took priority that season (i was really keen on Annie Power that year and hoped she would run) but Mullins could still have tested UDS against better opposition and still avoided Hurricane Fly. (there's enough races in the calendar that he could have been tested more or even come over to the UK) Again your argument against Douvan being all hype and having it all to prove is basically the exact same that could have been levelled at Un de Sceaux

Back to topic: If the Champion Chase was run tomorrow with Douvan added into the 2016 lineup my bet would be on Sprinter Sacre to win and beat Douvan. (So basically after all that debate I agree with you that Douvan is a bad price and the wrong favourite):highly_amused: But personally i'd say Douvan would come 2nd and beat the likes of UDS, Sire de Grugy.

Come March I think Douvan will have stepped up to another level but whether this is enough to get to Sprinter Sacre is the unknown. I think Douvan with another season may just have enough even if Sprinter Sacre stayed at the level shown this year but that would be a very close call. The worry is another year for Sprinter being 11 years old and whether he can hold that form

 

[Kevloaf]

Back to topic: If the Champion Chase was run tomorrow with Douvan added into the 2016 lineup my bet would be on Sprinter Sacre to win and beat Douvan. (So basically after all that debate I agree with you that Douvan is a bad price and the wrong favourite):highly_amused: But personally i'd say Douvan would come 2nd and beat the likes of UDS, Sire de Grugy.

If Douvan wins his first race in open company, say he beats Special Tiara for example, by a comfortable 4 lengths. Would that change your mind in to who you would back and consider the right favourite?

I think as soon as Douvan does take the first step in to open company, it'll be hard to say he isn't the right favorite. To say he isn't now is fair, but won't last for long.

As a betting prospect, then Douvan isn't worth having a bean on now as a single. On the day, at even I'd imagine I'd have my biggest ever bet (ironically, replacing the horse who currently holds that mantle for me in National Hunt, Mighty Spinter!)

 

[oceans]

if he gets beat by Special Tiara then it'd truly be disappointing as SDG, Gods'Own and many others have beat him so thats not really a good yardstick, if you really want a good one put him against UDS and see what happens. If beating ST by 4 lengths means he'd be the right favourite then almost half of the CC entries would have to be co-favs.Its really a weak division.

The race would need to be analyzed in context. First lets see him against older horses, get a handle of how good he truly is then praise him, until then he's a overhyped horse with no superior form over the 2nd or 3rd fav. I'm not talking about CC form, I'm talking about inferior collateral form with UDS novice season which I've explained in my last post.

 

[jono]

If Douvan wins his first race in open company, say he beats Special Tiara for example, by a comfortable 4 lengths. Would that change your mind in to who you would back and consider the right favourite?

Right now i'm confident Douvan would beat any 2mile chaser bar Sprinter Sacre so whatever he does in open company himself probably won't change my outlook on the race as I think he'll pass the question mark of open company with flying colours. It'll be more with how Sprinter performs leading up to the Festival. If the signs are that he still holds the same ability as he had in the 15/16 season (specifically in the Spring) then i'd still say he would be the worthy favourite but i'd have the odds extremely close.

Now they could both go for the Tingle Creek in December and at that point we'd likely know this answer. Though if i'm honest part of me wants the 2 to not meet until Cheltenham, both unbeaten just to add intrigue into this race. I got into racing just as Sprinter Sacre was going chasing and he captured my imagination in the sport and I haven't looked back since so sentiment is very much on his side as much as I believe Douvan could be the next true great.

 

[Kevloaf]

No need to race against UDS in an open event, Douvan will have worked all over him at home

Not really anything to disagree with you about jono, I almost want to play devil's advocate and be bullish regarding Douvan, but I expect everyone is in the same boat. Sprinter right now is the one any horse has to beat and Douvan looks like the only horse who might do that. (And UDS potentially, but we won't see the rematch)... UDS will be campaigned wherever there is soft it the going now. They brought out that excuse every time he wasn't impressive.

 

[mayo]

Brian O'Connor has a different view on Douvan

I The flat has its qualities but the jumps always trump it for sentiment. And it’s that sentiment which makes the idea of Douvan not being targeted at the Gold Cup this winter so infuriating.

Douvan isn’t the jump game’s greatest star. He is coming out of two novice campaigns over hurdles and fences after all. But he is its most exciting star. His potential is limitless. Willie Mullins has made no secret he believes this horse could be the best he’s had through his hands. It’s easy for us on the sidelines to get excited about young talent: when top professionals do the same it’s a sign of something special.

So it’s dispiriting to see Patrick Mullins quoted as saying: “It is a question of whether we stay at two miles with him (Douvan) this season or up him to three miles. He settles very well and you’d think that he could get three miles but he is so good over two miles, why change it?”

The ‘why’ is simple: the Gold Cup is the ultimate. It’s why the ‘Blue Riband’ tag is tied around it, the same with the Epsom Derby. Money often trumps sentiment for the Derby. Galileo Gold skipped it this year on the basis of a genetic test which appeared to coincide with a suspicion that the potential financial cost of rolling the stamina dice might be too great. But there are no such impediments to stamina considerations in the jumps game.

Of course it’s easy to be brave with someone else’s horse. And of course it is Rich Ricci’s privilege to decide. And of course there is plenty evidence of how Willie Mullins’ belief in keeping his horses in the worst of company to maximise their winning chance has spectacularly paid off. There is even the reality that simply getting a horse to Cheltenham in six months time is an achievement in itself.

But the Gold Cup is supposed to be the pinnacle, the ultimate test of the best steeplechasers. Should Douvan win the Champion Chase in style this March he will probably be lauded to the skies and simultaneously leave everyone wondering ‘what if?’ A horse with his quality and speed who’s never raced beyond an extended two miles would need to be a freak to also properly stay the Gold Cup trip. But Douvan might be such a freak. And how will we ultimately know if he is or isn’t if that talent isn’t tested in the ultimate cauldron.

Sure this is a professional business for those involved but they’re hardly short of a bob or three either. They can afford to dream, maybe get a little sentimental, even a bit brave with this horse.

Thistlecrack is the Gold Cup favourite, and he hasn’t even run over fences yet. Don Cossack is coming back off a leg problem. Coneygree is on the comeback trail too. Cue Card can hardly improve. Of course Ricci has Djakadam and Vautour too but it could be argued one has had his shot at Gold Cup glory and the other is starting to approach enigmatic status. And all the while the Gold Cup remains the one race Mullins has yet to win, and the one he wants most.

Maybe that might yet prove the ultimate ‘why’ should cool eventually be trumped by sentiment.

 

[Kevloaf]

Champion Chaser 2017
Gold Cup 2018

That's the dream surely... if he was to live up to the hype, and delivered both, that's putting him up there with the all time greats :triumphant: .... simple? Haha

 

[gjt7756]

Douvan is Douvan, he is anything but a hype horse, he's jumped hurdles he's jumped fences all in the public eye in front of thousands, essentially we know what he's about and what's expected of him, not what's hyped about him, an example of a hype horse would be Sennewalk in the supreme novices, been fav since the betting opened until last week and we as the public know absolutely squiddly dit about whether he jumps a hurdle, what horses he works up the gallops with, how he compares to those horses, all we have is one line from his owner and it's been run with by everyone on no factual evidence, that is your hype horse, but the hype is enough for me to stick him in a few multiples, and back to Douvan I've seen the horse jump, I was also there last season when sprinter won the CC and it was fantastic just what I wanted even though my wallet was for UDS, but as we've said another year older and against newer fresher legs I think he may come up short at the festival, I feel sprinter wins the tingle creek no matter who turns up but after that I don't see his future being much brighter with Douvan and UDS on the scene everywhere, I think with a slightly different ride Ruby would have got UDS a lot closer to sprinter, he wouldn't have beaten him that day, but now with another year on his back even if Douvan wasn't around I'd fancy sprinter not to retain the CC crown

 

[Rhinestone Cowboy]

The Donn on Douvan

One horse can take in all three festivals. The right horse. God’s Own finished fourth in the Champion Chase at Cheltenham, then won the Melling Chase at Aintree after Vautour’s departure, before coming on to Punchestown on Tuesday and running out an impressive winner of the Punchestown Champion Chase.

Bellshill did it last year, finished down the field in the Cheltenham Bumper, finished second in the Aintree bumper, then came on to Punchestown and won the Champion Bumper. And he did something similar this year. Down the field in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham, second in the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree, victorious in the Grade 1 Irish Daily Mirror Novices’ Hurdle at Punchestown on Wednesday.

But to win at all three festivals, that takes something special. You need an extraordinary horse for that.

On The Fringe is extraordinary. He did it last year, as a 10-year-old, won the Foxhunter at Cheltenham, won the Fox Hunters’ at Aintree, won the Champion Hunters Chase at Punchestown.

This year as an 11-year-old, he wasn’t as impressive at Cheltenham, he only got home by a neck this year, compared with 17 lengths last year. But, remarkably, Enda Bolger’s horse seemed to improve this year between Cheltenham and Aintree, he won the Fox Hunters’ there again, and he was imperious again in the Racing Post Champion Hunters Chase at Punchestown on Friday.

And Douvan was at it again. Douvan didn’t go to Aintree last year, he just won the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham in 2015, then came on to Punchestown and danced in in the Champion Novice Hurdle. This year, he went to Aintree in the interim.

Arkle at Cheltenham, Maghull Chase at Aintree, Ryanair Novice Chase at Punchestown on Thursday, that was his spring calendar. Victories by, respectively, seven lengths, 14 lengths and 11 lenghts. Three more wins in the bag, three more Grade 1 wins. He’s extraordinary too.

 

[Kevloaf]

but now with another year on his back even if Douvan wasn't around I'd fancy sprinter not to retain the CC crown

Who would you fancy then, as there will be plenty of time for Douvan over the coming months! Betting without, Ar Mad? God's Own?