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2017 Arkle Trophy Chase

I love the hype and want to back altior of the boards as well, but for now he's in a few yankees and Canadians and that will do until I see him jump round on his first chase start, would rather take him at a point lower after seeing him jump, altior yorkhill and aux Ptit sons are my only first season chase bets so far
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
The racing post have some quotes from NJH. Basically says he thinks he could be a champion hurdle horse but if they don't go over fences now they never will. I have rather more invested than I am comfortable with but can't see anything that has the same class, providing he takes to fences
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Altior is very prominent in the market for the Stan James Champion Hurdle, being general 7-1 third favourite behind Faugheen, but is set to tread a different path to the Cheltenham Festival.

"We had always hoped he was a bit special and I am glad to say hopes were realised last season," said Henderson, whose exciting High Chaparral gelding is a general 4-1 chance for the Racing Post Arkle.

"We have spent the summer deliberating as to whether he should stay over hurdles with a view to having a look at the Champion, or switch to fences and aim at the Arkle.

"After a lot of thought, discussion and, at times, a lot of indecision, we have decided to take the novice chase route."

Henderson continued: "He is now a six-year-old, rising seven, and if we do not go chasing now I suspect we might never. Second, it was very obvious that he had grown considerably through the summer and although he was always a big horse, he now looks like a chaser, and as much as it would be tempting to see if he was good enough for a Champion Hurdle, which I think he is, we have plumped for fences."
 
Probably the only thing i've seen as a negative on Altior by a few people is the fact he is by High Chaparral, apparently has a poor record over fences? I have pretty much zero knowledge of the breeding/pedigree side of horse racing so can't comment on this angle. Would this be a concern?
 
jono said:
Probably the only thing i've seen as a negative on Altior by a few people is the fact he is by High Chaparral, apparently has a poor record over fences? I have pretty much zero knowledge of the breeding/pedigree side of horse racing so can't comment on this angle. Would this be a concern?
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That'll be a point of debate for some, sure.
NH horses are bred from flat horses so none are specifically bred to jump fences, some horses just adapt better than others so it wouldn't worry me.

And they used to say Monjeur horses couldn't get up the hill !
 
I only ever use the breeding and pedigree as a very loose guide really. Frankel wasn't the most perfectly bred horse on paper but he was the best we've seen. Extreme example I know, but High Chap probably doesn't have a great record with chasers because he hasn't had many try it, let alone good ones. The data will be so limited that it isn't worth getting hung up on... exactly like Ista says above, those 'trends' are there until they're broken.
 
They said Altior schooled well but in fairness cant recall a trainer switching codes say anything different. Id like to know more about breeding but wouldnt know where to start.
 
There's an index that's used when looking for Derby winners called Dosage Index, calculates speed, stamina etc from breeding and I know those who swear by it, there's a certain line that the winner always comes from and it wipes out half the field, system been used for years apparently.
When looking at breeding most people look at the male lines (eg High Chaparel) but with NH horses I think the Dam lines are important.
Don't forget when the likes of High Chaparel and Montjeur are sent to cover a mare it's usually with the aim of producing a high quality flat horse, not a NH horse, so maybe Dam lines are important in this ?
 
I use the dark art of Dosage!! I think in fairness its a decent guide but it isnt totally reliable. For people who havent got a life time to pour over pedigrees its gives you half a chance of working out if a horse has a chance of getting the trip in a certain class of race at certain track. There are very clever people i know that think its nonsense and very clever people i know claim they use it to make money. Ben Aiken wrote an excellent book on it and worth a read. Personally i find that the higher the grade of racing the more reliable it is.
 
For what its worth (and looking at the last 6 years results id say this isnt going to be a race that is that reliable for dosage, and thus you could draw from that the whole thing is a load of rubbish!!), but Altior's dosage profile falls in a decent position with more speed than Douvan and Sprinter sacre, but more stamina than Captain Chris and Western Warhorse, I wouldnt consider UDS coz he doesnt have enough points to even form a proper profile. As clear as mud!!! lol
 
Good to hear. Like I said I take little notice of pedigree but it's only for the lack of knowledge in that area. I'm a big fan of Ben Aitken's Narrowing the Field blog and have spotted his dosage index before. It's definitely something that i'd like to look into more. Has anyone got a link to his book?

Have to say I am slightly surprised at the reaction on Altior in the market. I thought 4's might be the lowest he'd be cut too on the decision being made but Betfred are the last to remain at 7/2 as of tonight then it ranges from 5/2 - 3/1.

How much have you all been lumping on... :highly_amused:
 
Istabraq said:
Quite happy with the investment I was allowed to make jono....
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I've got my biggest ever single ber on Altior. His price is now in line with what Douvans was prior to his chasing debut last season. An impressive chasing debut by Altior and I think he'll be 2/1 tops.
 
Think you're right FM.
Last few runnings of the race (bar one) has seen very small fields, I get the feeling a clean jumping display and impressive debut over fences could have them all running for cover, every trainer will be trying to strain that extra half mile from their charges in the hope of having a live chance at the JLT.

I remember Remittance Man being 11/10 for the Arkle after his chase debut so bookies aren't shy in chalking up short prices.

Is there any danger that he impresses so much that Nicky takes the novice to the Queen Mother ?
Very very unlikely....
 
Had to back Altior too. Video On racing post YouTube channel
 
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I feel like I've had a winner already getting Altior at 5s.
3s top price now, all the 7/2 yesterday gone with many going 5/2 and 11/4....
 
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