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PADDY POWER PLATE Handicap Chase

I had him marked out at the start of the season for this off low 150's. See my diary. I have wondered whether he might go to the Ryanair though, but I think Mister Fisher's run yesterday probably confirmed his birth in the race, and with Fusil Raffles mark what it is I finally took the plunge yesterday evening.
 
Spectre said:
I had him marked out at the start of the season for this off low 150's. See my diary. I have wondered whether he might go to the Ryanair though, but I think Mister Fisher's run yesterday probably confirmed his birth in the race, and with Fusil Raffles mark what it is I finally took the plunge yesterday evening.
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I know they can often run well, these types but I pretty much rule out anything rated over 150 on this race. But I can see why this horse would attract some followers.

But in this race Not many of them challenge the judge and the average rating of the winner is approx 10lbs or so below.
I think on the front page it shows only 1 horse rated 150+ has finished in the first 2 in the last 10 or so renewals.
It seems to be a race that is tough for the more exposed higher rated types, probably due to the distance.
I think that's a strong enough stat to help narrow the field.

Higher rated horses do better over the staying trips in handicaps, like the Ultima, so I don't discount them as much, but never back a novice over 150 that's for sure, cos they never fucking win unless they are 3 season cheat novices like Sky Pirate, whom I think is the only one.

There are not many rated 150 or above that win any handicaps at the festival full stop to be honest.
So I'm always wary of them.
 
Not many agreed. Plenty have placed. It's also worth a glance back at the last few Plates to see what type run very well in it.

As for Fusil Raffles, he fits the bill in terms of course experience and results, and a cursory look at his form suggests that on more than one formline his mark may be very workable.

He could be vulnerable to an Irish trainer getting a graded horse in there off the low 140's. Noble Yeats and Gabynako would be the ones that would concern me most, and whatever Elliott has for it, but I can't currently see one of his jumping off the page. JP has two or three likely types, one of which I like. Vienna Court would be the UK horse that I could see running a big race if she doesn't go to the Mares Chase. Magic Saint is coming down the handicap too, and runs well round HQ.

When you consider the likely types though I think Fusil Raffles is actually one you'd want onside.

The trifecta's in there somewhere too! :highly_amused:

If it comes in be sure to remind me, but if not this never existed. :highly_amused::highly_amused::highly_amused:
 
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Plenty have placed.
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I've not fact checked the front page, but it's 5 from 44 places (using the first 4) - obviously no winners,
So for win and place purposes I'd say they are worth avoiding, and they are often over bet and under priced cos they are more high profile/known to the casuals.
 
To use that stat against you also need to use the equivalent percentage of horses that have run carrying 150+ Q. I don't have the time at the moment, but I'd be very surprised if it came up with a stat that you'd say was a negative.
 
Spectre said:
To use that stat against you also need to use the equivalent percentage of horses that have run carrying 150+ Q. I don't have the time at the moment, but I'd be very surprised if it came up with a stat that you'd say was a negative.
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could be a fair point.
can't be arsed looking but 3 last year and 5 year before.
i'd guess they'll be below par but not by much.
 
Papa Tango Charly runs in the Grade 2 opener at Haddock today. It’s not a particularly hot race but if he were to win, he’d probably blow his mark for this.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
Papa Tango Charly runs in the Grade 2 opener at Haddock today. It’s not a particularly hot race but if he were to win, he’d probably blow his mark for this.
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aye, they've found a very weak G2 haven't they. Probably going to ruin his mark while not beating much.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
Papa Tango Charly runs in the Grade 2 opener at Haddock today. It’s not a particularly hot race but if he were to win, he’d probably blow his mark for this.
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Hasn’t blown his mark but jumped terribly in comparison to what he’d done previously. Threw in the towel after one too many mistakes.
 
Liked Palmers Hills for this, if he wins today mark will probably be blown
 
Had Shan Blue added for this with Sky gone NRMB (8/1), I'm in the doubtful stayer camp and would take him on if they went the hcap route and to the Ultima, if however they came here you could be looking at an Allaho type effort in a hcap potentially and he'd be smashed up on being "well in" if nothing else. Seems mad they won't utilise his mark to win some sort of pot before being forced into graded races for the next couple of season.
 
Outlaw said:
Had Shan Blue added for this with Sky gone NRMB (8/1), I'm in the doubtful stayer camp and would take him on if they went the hcap route and to the Ultima, if however they came here you could be looking at an Allaho type effort in a hcap potentially and he'd be smashed up on being "well in" if nothing else. Seems mad they won't utilise his mark to win some sort of pot before being forced into graded races for the next couple of season.
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Eight to One though....for Shan Blue?
 
Kevloaf said:
Eight to One though....for Shan Blue?
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Unsure if that’s one of your video squeals(My Drogo style lol)
Ryanair obvs been mentioned as the aim but wouldn’t blame them for taking “a pass” this season & bump into Allaho when he’s actually being consistent and looking the dogs bollocks.

if he came here your telling me he wouldn’t be punted off the boards like the Shunter was last year? Look how daft his price was getting for the Hennessy and bar maybe an Irish blot he’d be miles the fav.
 
Outlaw said:
Unsure if that’s one of your video squeals(My Drogo style lol)
Ryanair obvs been mentioned as the aim but wouldn’t blame them for taking “a pass” this season & bump into Allaho when he’s actually being consistent and looking the dogs bollocks.

if he came here your telling me he wouldn’t be punted off the boards like the Shunter was last year? Look how daft his price was getting for the Hennessy and bar maybe an Irish blot he’d be miles the fav.
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Lot better price and a race he'd probably win.
 
Quevega said:
Lot better price and a race he'd probably win.
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We can agree on that :biggrin-new:, granted posting about two horses at single digits in hcaps antepost is shithousery 9/10 so I’ve left myself open to criticism but I’d make an exception for these pair.
 
Outlaw said:
Unsure if that’s one of your video squeals(My Drogo style lol)
Ryanair obvs been mentioned as the aim but wouldn’t blame them for taking “a pass” this season & bump into Allaho when he’s actually being consistent and looking the dogs bollocks.

if he came here your telling me he wouldn’t be punted off the boards like the Shunter was last year? Look how daft his price was getting for the Hennessy and bar maybe an Irish blot he’d be miles the fav.
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Hahaha, literally was yeah :highly_amused: - well spotted!

I do see your point though, I suppose there just isn't loads of juice is all I was thinking... given his previous festival runs
 
Kevloaf said:
Hahaha, literally was yeah :highly_amused: - well spotted!

I do see your point though, I suppose there just isn't loads of juice is all I was thinking... given his previous festival runs
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Made me chuckle when you said the best handicapped horse in training was over rated.
Obviously in the context of the Ryanair, it's fair enough.
 
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Fucking oddschecker.
Got him at 16-1 for this.
Was just about to 10 point NRNB it.
actually got excited.:loyal:

Can leave the 8-1 for a bit and see if it moves.
 
I'd say Torn and Frayed is a fair price at 16-1 NRNB.
Almost certain to run if he gets in, depends on penalty.
 
Quevega said:
I'd say Torn and Frayed is a fair price at 16-1 NRNB.
Almost certain to run if he gets in, depends on penalty.
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Won very easily. Was thrown in off 131 against horses that are probably handicapped correctly over 2m4. Hopefully be in the late 130s but Nigel doesn't help himself thanking the handicapper.
 
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