2022 Ryanair Chase

[charlie]

Good write up Charlie and agree with practically all of that.

Would you not fancy Energumene if he were to head here? IF and it's a big if, Mullins' sends Energumene to the Tingle Creek to go against Shishkin and is no match for him, then surely he ends up here?

I think the 12/1 about him is a good bet for now as it's unlikely that will ever get any bigger throughout the early part of the season.

Cheers pal. Energumene is all the rage as a top 2 miler at Closutton so until I see or hear anything different, all roads leads QMCC.

I could be wrong and the pieces may fall that way, but I think it pays to take views like this on Willies because he normally has 2-3 in the top 6-7 of the betting and we know they won't all go.

 

[riccirich]

I was thinking about politologue for this race after watching him in the schloer, seems to be down the pecking order now in the 2m division but still showed a lot of enthusiasm in finishing a good second.

Has ran ran over this trip a few times and with his age he might even be a bit better over this trip nowadays if they gave him another crack at it.

If next years race is anything like this years was you would think that he would be one that could lay up with allaho too with his jumping and 2m speed.

Not one i'd be in a rush to back and only an outside chance of him coming here but would be interested to see what he's priced at if he is added to the market at some point.

 

[Spectre]

I'd love to see Energumene run in this, because I think he's going to be a bit of a 'Min', or even an Un des Sceaux. Capable of winning good graded 2 mile chases, but found out in the very best company. Both Min and Un des Sceaux both needed the mid-trip to win their Championship races.

If Willie sticks to two miles he'll be chasing Shishkin's backside all over the place, but if he steps up to two and a half he could dominate the division. I suspect though he'll do exactly as he did with Min and UdS and he'll be the bridesmaid until he finally stops being stubborn in a couple of years time.

 

[archie]

If we're all agreed that this is a specialist's race then surely we're all agreed that it's pointless opposing last season's facile winner.

 

[Spectre]

If we're all agreed that this is a specialist's race then surely we're all agreed that it's pointless opposing last season's facile winner.

Not at all. I think both Energumene and Envoi Allen would be interesting. I doubt anything else has sufficient class. The trouble is it looks as though the two of them will go elsewhere.

I also wonder whether Allaho can repeat what he did in the manner that he did it. It's rare for horses to repeat what he did, and I can't think of any examples in Championship races in many years.

 

[darlojim]

Not at all. I think both Energumene and Envoi Allen would be interesting. .

They're the only 2 who i could see potentially challenging Allaho in this race.

 

[MadeinJapan]

They're the only 2 who i could see potentially challenging Allaho in this race.

Agreed with this - and there's a fair likelihood neither run here. The only one at a bigger price than those listed who could make the frame e/w is Protektorat of Skelton's - ran multiple times at Cheltenham before & appears to have taken to fences well so far, around 25s currently, could see him in top 3 with a few at head of market coming out. Would I have him beating Allaho though? No. The "angle" I've tried to get into for this race is simply a couple of roll ups here or there trying to get a bigger price around Allaho than 7/2.

 

[Quevega]

I though Allaho's performance was perfection. He blew them and us away.

But it was on the day.

We've seen performances like that before, in this race and others, and they are rarely, if ever, reproduced.

Which is why he is underpriced IMO.

 

[Istabraq]

I though Allaho's performance was perfection. He blew them and us away.

But it was on the day.

We've seen performances like that before, in this race and others, and they are rarely, if ever, reproduced.

Which is why he is underpriced IMO.

Good point that, I remember when Master Minded put up 'that' Queen Mother performance, or Apples Jade at Aintree, go back further an Master Oats running them stupid in his Gold Cup but like you say they generally do it once and most, if not all, efforts afterwards are inferior...

 

[Bonjers]

Agreed with this - and there's a fair likelihood neither run here. The only one at a bigger price than those listed who could make the frame e/w is Protektorat of Skelton's - ran multiple times at Cheltenham before & appears to have taken to fences well so far, around 25s currently, could see him in top 3 with a few at head of market coming out. Would I have him beating Allaho though? No. The "angle" I've tried to get into for this race is simply a couple of roll ups here or there trying to get a bigger price around Allaho than 7/2.

Skelton has already been out and said he'll be campaigned over 3m from here - think he also namechecked the Savills as an option.

 

[MadeinJapan]

Skelton has already been out and said he'll be campaigned over 3m from here - think he also namechecked the Savills as an option.

Missed that - thanks, be interesting to see where he ends up then come March.

 

[Rooster Booster]

Skelton has already been out and said he'll be campaigned over 3m from here - think he also namechecked the Savills as an option.

Desperately needs 3m+ imo

 

[Outlaw]

I though Allaho's performance was perfection. He blew them and us away.

But it was on the day.

We've seen performances like that before, in this race and others, and they are rarely, if ever, reproduced.

Which is why he is underpriced IMO.

Yep & he’s hardly one to remain unbeaten in a season so you’ll lose very little not backing him now at the prices.

 

[Ice]

Good point that, I remember when Master Minded put up 'that' Queen Mother performance, or Apples Jade at Aintree, go back further an Master Oats running them stupid in his Gold Cup but like you say they generally do it once and most, if not all, efforts afterwards are inferior...

Uxizandre in the Ryanair was another one that sprung into my mind.

 

[That Horse]

Henry dB on Put the kettle on;

We'll see how it all unfolds but it's not certain [that she'll try to defend her Champion Chase crown]. She'll probably have a few entries. Obviously there's the Mares' Chase and the Ryanair Chase.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Henry dB on Put the kettle on;

We'll see how it all unfolds but it's not certain [that she'll try to defend her Champion Chase crown]. She'll probably have a few entries. Obviously there's the Mares' Chase and the Ryanair Chase.

14s down to 11s for the Mares Chase on that news

 

[RufusFlynn]

Henry dB on Put the kettle on;

We'll see how it all unfolds but it's not certain [that she'll try to defend her Champion Chase crown]. She'll probably have a few entries. Obviously there's the Mares' Chase and the Ryanair Chase.

In the event she does end up over a longer trip in March - is it more likely she comes here or the Mares? The owners aren't afraid to target the big races but is the Mares Chase a more realistic target?

If she goes Mares then she will surely be the classiest in the race whereas if the Ryanair goes a gallop like it did last year with Allaho from the front then surely she wouldnt have the pace to keep up early doors and be too far back to make an impact at the finish?

Looks as though prices are around 20's for the Ryanair or 10's for the Mares; which would you rather take?

 

[Saxon Warrior]

In the event she does end up over a longer trip in March - is it more likely she comes here or the Mares? The owners aren't afraid to target the big races but is the Mares Chase a more realistic target?

If she goes Mares then she will surely be the classiest in the race whereas if the Ryanair goes a gallop like it did last year with Allaho from the front then surely she wouldnt have the pace to keep up early doors and be too far back to make an impact at the finish?

Looks as though prices are around 20's for the Ryanair or 10's for the Mares; which would you rather take?

Neither if her form from now to Cheltenham leads them to decide she's regressed from being a 2M Champion.

At her best she's rated only 4lb up on Elimay, and that difference may be because she has ran in races that get higher ratings (Grade 1s) and Elimay hasnt.

So if she is below her best then she probably doesn't win the Mares Chase, let alone beat Allaho, maybe Envoi Allen and the rest.

I hope she proves she's still got it next time out and then seeks to defend her crown.

 

[Spectre]

Neither if her form from now to Cheltenham leads them to decide she's regressed from being a 2M Champion.

At her best she's rated only 4lb up on Elimay, and that difference may be because she has ran in races that get higher ratings (Grade 1s) and Elimay hasnt.

So if she is below her best then she probably doesn't win the Mares Chase, let alone beat Allaho, maybe Envoi Allen and the rest.

I hope she proves she's still got it next time out and then seeks to defend her crown.

This is exactly how I see it. Champion Chase or no Festival at all.

 

[RufusFlynn]

Good to hear that others are also thinking she will still tackle the QM - the race really does have a tendancy to cut up more than any other, and guessing at ground conditions in March at the back end of November is a shot in the dark.

Fingers crossed she gets there fit and well.

Back to the Ryanair; interesting to see the John Durkan entries (particularly for Willie):

Al Boum Photo
Allaho
Asterion Forlonge
Cash Back
Easy Game
Energumene
Franco de Port
Janidil
Kemboy
Melon
Royal Rendevous
Tornado Flyer

Obviously not all of them will run here and some can be discounted from a Ryanair perspective (ABP - Gold Cup; Kemboy unlikely to run at the Fest, Energumene surely QMCC)

Allaho needs no discussion as if he runs like last year then surely he wins but will discount from a price perspective.

I think the most interesting are Asterion Forlonge, Easy Game, & Janidil. All have ran at previous festivals without winning which does tend to lend itself well to winners of the Ryanair. I would say all have a touch of class on their day if all goes right. The most interesting for me has to be Janidil; the 5th in the Albert Bartlett behind Monkfish & co after being campaigned exclusively at 2 miles beforehand has always stood out. Won on chase debut. Ran in some decent races. Last race behind Energumene at Punchestown just showed he needs further than 2m. Only query is will prices of 16/1 still be around nearer the day?