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2022 Ryanair Chase

Quevega said:
Same daddy as A Plus Tard & Clan des Obeaux, and not renowned for producing out and out stayers, but they aren't far off.

I think you're on the right lines, but probably dangerous to be so adamant, although having a fanny as well as a penis probably ain't a bad thing, as long as it's in the right place and not in the way of anything else.

So you can't lose IMO :cheerful:
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Well I've been called a cock and a James Hunt a fair few times in my life :highly_amused:
 
somer1 said:
Well I've been called a cock and a James Hunt a fair few times in my life :highly_amused:
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When you've been married long enough this type of abuse is commonplace...
 
Think Elimay runs in Mares Hurdle this Sunday Archie. Same one as she finished 2nd in last year.
 
Lobos said:
Think Elimay runs in Mares Hurdle this Sunday Archie. Same one as she finished 2nd in last year.
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Don't think she's declared?

checked again..def not declared
 
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Defi in the 5 day decs for the 2m5f grade 2 at ascot on saturday

With hobbs back in form let's hope we see the real defi this year
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
Defi in the 5 day decs for the 2m5f grade 2 at ascot on saturday

With hobbs back in form let's hope we see the real defi this year
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I hope we do. I know some think he's just done at the game because he's a French bred but I think this step back up in trip will see him show everyone that he's still a very good horse :encouragement:
 
ComplyOrDie said:
I hope we do. I know some think he's just done at the game because he's a French bred but I think this step back up in trip will see him show everyone that he's still a very good horse :encouragement:
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I believe they found he was bleeding into his stomach which would surely explain the substandard performances
 
Trying to find an angle in to backing in this race is so hard :indecisiveness:
 
Kevloaf said:
Trying to find an angle in to backing in this race is so hard :indecisiveness:
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At longer odds, something like The Big Getaway or Hitman, perhaps? Both available at 50-1. Shan Blue at 28-1? If Envoi comes here, it is a no brainier though, right?
 
Cheltenham Novice Chase said:
At longer odds, something like The Big Getaway or Hitman, perhaps? Both available at 50-1. Shan Blue at 28-1? If Envoi comes here, it is a no brainier though, right?
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Yeah The Big Getaway I'm interested in once I see an entry. Not sure what direction they'll go with him, but if they enter him up at less than 3 miles I'll take him before he runs. When he got into a rhythm on his last run I was really taken.
 
Cheltenham Novice Chase said:
At longer odds, something like The Big Getaway or Hitman, perhaps? Both available at 50-1. Shan Blue at 28-1? If Envoi comes here, it is a no brainier though, right?
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I liked hitman as a lively outsider but Nicholls had him fit for his reappearance and he just didn't have enough to win
 
Does Chatham Street Lad come into it if he ends up here?
Has good form at the course. Yes, probably a level below top class but otherwise exactly the type of horse that could run into a place?
 
I think the Ryanair is very much a specialist race. You need to be able to jump and travel just as well as a Champion Chase and still have the stamina to see it out. CSL has really good course form, but there will be a few more of his type too that might be a little bit better.

I think the problem is since his win in the Caspian Caviar he's just been a badly handicapped horse that's a level and a half behind Grade 1. At 50/1 with cash out there's no harm in a punt I guess, but I'd imagine they'll e doing everything they can to get his mark down so he can win a decent handicap pot again at some point in the future.
 
Spectre said:
I think the Ryanair is very much a specialist race. You need to be able to jump and travel just as well as a Champion Chase and still have the stamina to see it out. CSL has really good course form, but there will be a few more of his type too that might be a little bit better.

I think the problem is since his win in the Caspian Caviar he's just been a badly handicapped horse that's a level and a half behind Grade 1. At 50/1 with cash out there's no harm in a punt I guess, but I'd imagine they'll e doing everything they can to get his mark down so he can win a decent handicap pot again at some point in the future.
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Agree 100% Spectre. For me, finding the Ryanair winner revolves around this question:

'would or could the horse in question win, or at least be very competitive in a QMCC and/or Gold Cup?'

Heavily open to interpretation, but by my reckoning 8 out of the last 10 winners are a 'yes' to the above.

I like this approach. Genuine QMCC and Gold Cup contenders are easier to identify than winners of this. Their G1 credentials are often well advertised, and the ability of their competitors is too.

There are far less places to hide over 2m and 3m2f, and the Ryanair is far more tricky IMO because it's less about clear distinctions between a G1 animal and inferior horses, and far more deciphering degrees of 'very good'. Weighing up degrees of 'very good' is obviously tricky, which is why I find contextualising ability in relation to the QMCC and/or GC so valuable.

Allaho would not look out of place in a QMCC, but IMO, wouldn't have the gears or kick to finish well enough over 2 miles. Allaho probably wouldn't look out of place in a Gold Cup, for a long long way. He's the perfect horse for this race and we've seen that.

Top of the market is a mess here:

Allaho @ 7/2
Envoi Allen @ 7/1
Fakir @ 10/1
Shishkin @ 10/1
Energumene @ 12/1
Janadil @ 16/1

Shishkin obviously won't go and IMO it's unlikely Willie will fire more than two bullets if Allaho remains sound. In the same ownership as Allaho, and as a future stayer IMO, Envoi Allen is likely to take on 3 miles. I don't think its unrealistic even now to interpret the race this way. As much as I want Fakir to be a Gold Cup horse, he's clearly the bet here isn't he?
 
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Good write up Charlie and agree with practically all of that.

Would you not fancy Energumene if he were to head here? IF and it's a big if, Mullins' sends Energumene to the Tingle Creek to go against Shishkin and is no match for him, then surely he ends up here?

I think the 12/1 about him is a good bet for now as it's unlikely that will ever get any bigger throughout the early part of the season.
 
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