2022 Gold Cup

[Deleted member 4957]

Topofthegame2021
I assume you are a Chantry House fan ?
So flipping your question, what have you seen in him that screams Gold Cup winner ?

 

[Rooster Booster]

Could Imperial Aura be a dark horse at 50/1. Is one of few in the field that won’t mind the going on the betfair chase Saturday ( actaully think hes not a bad poke at 12/1 for this also) , he has a good first time out record too. I Recall he was Ryan air favorite after his ascot win last year and has has excuses since. Wind op over the summer cant be a bad thing either ... Just having a look at the 50s available for the gold cup, if he wins this Id have him in the Chantry House / Galvin outsider camp. He has actually already beaten galvin at chelts which is interesting

If u r interested 7barrows hills have IA at 100 to win Betfair and GC ....likely you’d be better off backing him separately but thought I’d let you know.

 

[Rooster Booster]

Ps it’s 123 with the boost

 

[Topofthegame2021]

Topofthegame2021
I assume you are a Chantry House fan ?
So flipping your question, what have you seen in him that screams Gold Cup winner ?

I think he’s a big bruiser of a horse who is all stamina. I watched back his last 4 wins over fences and and in all 4 he puts in good jumps at the last - not tired leaps. Still plenty in the tank.

He’s got enough class to place in a decent Supreme and win a Marsh (luckily or not in some people’s opinion).

He’s clever over his fences, and is a good jumper I would say. Jumps and stays is a simple MO for a GC.

Everyone has different things they look for. The first thing I do is disregard any horse that has run in or won the race before. Second season chasers provide a substantial amount of winners and so that’s where I look. Out of the second season chasers, he has the best chance IMO.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

I think he’s a big bruiser of a horse who is all stamina. I watched back his last 4 wins over fences and and in all 4 he puts in good jumps at the last - not tired leaps. Still plenty in the tank.

He’s got enough class to place in a decent Supreme and win a Marsh (luckily or not in some people’s opinion).

He’s clever over his fences, and is a good jumper I would say. Jumps and stays is a simple MO for a GC.

Everyone has different things they look for. The first thing I do is disregard any horse that has run in or won the race before. Second season chasers provide a substantial amount of winners and so that’s where I look. Out of the second season chasers, he has the best chance IMO.

Can’t say fairer than that.
Sound reasoning backed up with study. :encouragement:

 

[Deleted member 4957]

I think he’s a big bruiser of a horse who is all stamina. I watched back his last 4 wins over fences and and in all 4 he puts in good jumps at the last - not tired leaps. Still plenty in the tank.

He’s got enough class to place in a decent Supreme and win a Marsh (luckily or not in some people’s opinion).

He’s clever over his fences, and is a good jumper I would say. Jumps and stays is a simple MO for a GC.

Everyone has different things they look for. The first thing I do is disregard any horse that has run in or won the race before. Second season chasers provide a substantial amount of winners and so that’s where I look. Out of the second season chasers, he has the best chance IMO.

He's certainly a unit I agree and yes his jumping is good.
I'm not convinced he would have got to Espoir de Romay at Aintree but that one ended the season a 160 rated novice so was a quality horse in his own right.
He was a long way back when third in the Supreme, soft ground against him possibly and that was deep ground, his chances are likely to improve plenty if the ground has dried by Friday.
I'm not convinced he can improve past the reigning champ, Envoi or A Plus Tard, but I had him down as a no hoper six months ago and there have been a few in here put up solid arguments in his favour that have made me re-visit that view.
First sign of a failure and a drift follows and I'll have to cover him...

 

[ToniC]

1) What has Envoi Allen done to convince you that he’s so easily a better horse than CH

Think a lot of people (myself included, though was shattered a bit at the end of last season) hope/like to think envoi will be the next true great of the game we see and things were working out for him in a way that looked like he may reach those heights but in truth, the last time he had a proper race was probably the 2019 royal bond. Obviously that doesn’t preclude anybody from being able to see he’s a very good horse on the basis of his runs against weaker opposition but I’m not longer the firm believer I was I must admit and would like to see him face some proper Grade 1 opponents and see how he fares

 

[Lobos]

Elimay entered in Bet Victor chase at Thurles next week over 2m 6f along with Al Boum Photo, Melon and co. The Gold Cup dream still flickers.....:amen:

 

[Dandrew99]

Elimay entered in Bet Victor chase at Thurles next week over 2m 6f along with Al Boum Photo, Melon and co. The Gold Cup dream still flickers.....:amen:

Did wonder the other day whether Concertista going chasing was a hint that Elimay might be giving this a go... Certainly more confident now than I was a few weeks ago (still not very confident...)

 

[Middle_Of_March]

At 66/1 with cashout, surely Next Destination is an absolute must bet for the Gold Cup before Saturday. Unexposed, with a proven trainer for the GC and has all the makings of being a big shortener if he wins or even runs well in the Betfair Chase.

 

[Lobos]

At 66/1 with cashout, surely Next Destination is an absolute must bet for the Gold Cup before Saturday. Unexposed, with a proven trainer for the GC and has all the makings of being a big shortener if he wins or even runs well in the Betfair Chase.

Same re Ontheropes if he were to win the Ladbroke Trophy. 100/1 available. Worse Ew bets out there I'd say.

 

[Odin]

At 66/1 with cashout, surely Next Destination is an absolute must bet for the Gold Cup before Saturday. Unexposed, with a proven trainer for the GC and has all the makings of being a big shortener if he wins or even runs well in the Betfair Chase.

Likewise Imperial Aura as someone else mentioned here previously. I suspect and hope IA will run better though given the ground conditions. It feels like ND was aimed at this race on the expectation of soft ground, which I think he needs over this trip which hasn't materialised. Nicholls convinced that ND will be ready for his life though so perhaps that will have a bearing on the result as well as a few others probably won't be

 

[That Horse]

Likewise Imperial Aura as someone else mentioned here previously. I suspect and hope IA will run better though given the ground conditions. It feels like ND was aimed at this race on the expectation of soft ground, which I think he needs over this trip which hasn't materialised. Nicholls convinced that ND will be ready for his life though so perhaps that will have a bearing on the result as well as a few others probably won't be

FWIW Rory Delargy mentioned Imperial Aura on the latest Final Furlong podcast in regards the Betfair Chase, he referenced a conversation/interview he'd done with Kim Bailey months ago where trainer was a bit cool on Imperial Aura being the next big thing, trainer wasn't sure the horse's reputation was merited.

I was half asleep listening to it this morning at 6 am but that was definitely the gist :biggrin-new:

l'm not that interested in IA for the Betfair anyway, but it kinda put me off him being good enough for the gold cup, I'd take Galvin over him and Next Destination all day but obviously the prices reflect that.

 

[Eggs]

At 66/1 with cashout, surely Next Destination is an absolute must bet for the Gold Cup before Saturday. Unexposed, with a proven trainer for the GC and has all the makings of being a big shortener if he wins or even runs well in the Betfair Chase.

….Sky have 125-1 ND to win Betfair Chase & GC.

 

[Odin]

FWIW Rory Delargy mentioned Imperial Aura on the latest Final Furlong podcast in regards the Betfair Chase, he referenced a conversation/interview he'd done with Kim Bailey months ago where trainer was a bit cool on Imperial Aura being the next big thing, trainer wasn't sure the horse's reputation was merited.

I was half asleep listening to it this morning at 6 am but that was definitely the gist :biggrin-new:

l'm not that interested in IA for the Betfair anyway, but it kinda put me off him being good enough for the gold cup, I'd take Galvin over him and Next Destination all day but obviously the prices reflect that.

That's really interesting info - particularly given his form with Galvin a couple of years ago, thanks. Maybe I'll add a slightly more negative slant to anything I see tomorrow now...

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Interesting reading people's comments re EA and CH.
In the context of a Gold Cup,I can see why opinions divide , as neither has proved himself in that regard.
Some,well I imagine quiet a lot,think EA is a better horse. He may be but then again......
Shame he fell we would know then.
But of course all that would have proved is EA is better over that distance,not 3m 2f.
And that's the big question
For me, for a gold cup I prefer CH out the two,purely on what I have seen with my eyes on the racecourse.
Plus I am more sure he will actually run in the race.

All fascinating stuff though, and this race could be something special next March.

 

[That Horse]

That's really interesting info - particularly given his form with Galvin a couple of years ago, thanks. Maybe I'll add a slightly more negative slant to anything I see tomorrow now...

Listened to that bit back, fully awake now, Says he got the feeling from Kim that the horse had been overhyped after Ascot last year, hadn't proved anything against top level opposition, now has it to prove if he can live with likes of A Plus Tard tomorrow after not finishing last two races.

 

[Odin]

Listened to that bit back, fully awake now, Says he got the feeling from Kim that the horse had been overhyped after Ascot last year, hadn't proved anything against top level opposition, now has it to prove if he can live with likes of A Plus Tard tomorrow after not finishing last two races.

Ok, that's a bit more in line with my thoughts at the moment as well to be fair. I think penultimate run can be forgiven though (Indo fell before winning gold cup). Last run is the big question mark - too many horses continue to have burst blood vessel issues after the first one. I'm not worried about how badly he performed other than that though - a 3 mile gold cup horse would always struggle for pace in a 2mile speed 2.5mile race (if that makes sense). Tomorrow is undoubtedly a big day for IA in my eyes though. As I've mentioned earlier, I've got him in a double with eklat de rire (Ladbrokes) both at double figure prices so it would be nice to see him go well but I'm definitely hopeful rather than confident. Tbh - I expect Bristol to win tomorrow and will be covering him on the day

 

[Garrison Savannah]

Didn’t understand the love for IA last year when there was hype over his chances in the Ryanair.

Almost a year to the day he won the 1965 which wasn’t the best renewal in the first place and got worse when the race fell apart (Black Corton unseated and Real Steel made a juddering mistake 3 out which effectively finished his race [what has Real Steel gone on to do anyway?] IA ended up beating Itchy Feet, who hadn’t travelled a yard, by 5 lengths).

Since then IA has unseated in one race and bled in the next.

It’s an awful big jump to make to say he once beat Galvin over an intermediate trip so he’d have a good chance in a Gold Cup?

What have I missed?

 

[Odin]

Didn’t understand the love for IA last year when there was hype over his chances in the Ryanair.

Almost a year to the day he won the 1965 which wasn’t the best renewal in the first place and got worse when the race fell apart (Black Corton unseated and Real Steel made a juddering mistake 3 out which effectively finished his race [what has Real Steel gone on to do anyway?] IA ended up beating Itchy Feet, who hadn’t travelled a yard, by 5 lengths).

Since then IA has unseated in one race and bled in the next.

It’s an awful big jump to make to say he once beat Galvin over an intermediate trip so he’d have a good chance in a Gold Cup?

What have I missed?

To be clear, I'm playing the odds when backing him. He's a 50/1 horse at the moment so he's entitled to have multiple flaws in his form. My point is that he's meant to have been a 3m horse with a plan (novices handicap - ryanair - gold cup in consecutive years, very similar to the route they took with imperial commander) from day 1. Galvins improvement since the handicap has come beyond 2.5m, IA is yet to race beyond 2.5m. Its not a stretch to say he can improve from his current ability (which I don't think anyone would disagree is a high level, but not yet grade 1 class) as he steps up on distance. Through the lens of 50/1 odds, that's not a bad punt. Similarly the 66/1 available for next destination isn't bad even though neither may prove good enough.