Topofthegame2021
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FinalFurlong91
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He spoke in glowing terms about flinteur sacre too
jonbon is terrible value at his current price and getting worse
charlie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. March 2021)
Yeh good point. If I had to back him or I Am Maximus it would be the latter because there is far more substance to what he has actually achieved
It’s not only what happened in that bumper race though BN, My Drogo was excellent last season over hurdles, winning a grade 2 easily giving weight and culminating in a similar easy win in grade 1 company.
Obviously My Drogo doing so well over hurdles doesn’t mean I Am Maximus will be equally as good but it’s the only form we can go on and the signs are certainly there.
That was My Drogos first appearance on a racecourse and there were previous bumper and (I think) ptp winners which would explain such a big price. He’s also always been viewed as a future chaser so sometimes they don’t make the best bumper runners.
Lbur4288
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I'm another one in the IAM camp, beating My Drogo has been shown to be no easy feat since and if IAM can progress from that then he could be very useful. As has already been said though, there is the possibility that both of the Henderson hype horses could be another Flinteur Sacre. I can't wait to see them both over the hurdles.
FinalFurlong91
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Yes there's having a speculative ante post bet at 20/1+ then there's having one at 8/1
Jonbon may end up being a superstar, he may win the supreme on the snaff
he can do that and il happily watch it without backing him as hes never been any value because of his breeding
Interesting that it said in the big jump off that he doesnt have the size and scope of douvan
charlie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. March 2021)
100% agree. Its a slippery slope too. 20/1 I can just about sleep at night. Single figures with nothing jumped, no thanks. Far too many NH horses have been talked up and been shit for 8/1 to be anywhere near profitable long term.
ComplyOrDie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021) & Moderator
That depends how serious you took his p2p run (recorded an RPR of 97, one of the highest I've seen), prior to being seen in the bumper, as he was 33/1 with William Hill and SkyBet & 25/1 elsewhere.
Obviously if you don't follow p2p's then yeah, I agree, after that one bumper run he probably hasn't been value since.
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FinalFurlong91
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I looked at that p2p
None of the other horses have made that form look good since, he beat a bunch of donkeys
Morley Street
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He was 50s with Hills immediately after the p2p and before he was sold and also 200s to win the Supreme and the following year’s Arkle… that’s looks value now imo… there’s also been some very good judges go on record in terms of rating him highly, so I’d wait to crab him until if and when he flops at Newbury.
ComplyOrDie
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He also absolutely hammered them. He recorded a serious figure without needing to get serious. You have to make a judgement call with p2p horses and fair enough if you didn't feel that was good enough but he was value before his bumper, IMO, when you said he's never been value because of his breeding.
Silverbirch
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Am I the only one who doesn't like the quote from Hendo regarding I Am Maximus -
"and we just don't know how good he is. He could be one of the most exciting prospects we have had for a long time, and we hope he can live up to our expectations."
I find this odd, although it's hendo, so he's odd.
"and we just don't know how good he is. He could be one of the most exciting prospects we have had for a long time, and we hope he can live up to our expectations."
I find this odd, although it's hendo, so he's odd.
FinalFurlong91
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Silverbirch
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I just find the contradiction of 'he could be the best horse we've had in a very long time' and 'we don't know' strange. Nothing more.
The two I've back for this is Jonbon and Hubrisko both at 33/1 e/w.
I can understand that Jonbon isn't any value now, but I snapped his price up early doors when I knew how much he was bought for. I personally believe that JP would not spend ?570,000 on a horse unless he knew it was a very good one. There were a few others who were willing to spend big on him as well. It's not like flat racing when they spend stupid amounts of money before they have barely walked, at least at the age of 4 now 5, the breeders and connections involved will know that they have something special in their hands and this would have been discussed behind the scenes way before he went to auction. Personally I think this horse could be a bit special, but the only snag I have with a good JP horse that they may go for the Betfair hurdle, which is a hard race to take in a month before Cheltenham where as for the Irish horses, you don't see them running in handicaps carrying top weight a race before the big one.
The other horse I like, which is as little shot in the dark is Hubrisko trained by Mullins and owed by Ricci and I think he has gone under the radar. Ricci was quoted as saying that they think they have a very exciting horse in their hands and his only race in France has worked out good since. Ricci is going to come good with another Supreme horse sooner or later and I think this could be the one.
I might have one more bet in this race but waiting to see where Sir Gerhard and Kilcruit go, but will end up in some sort of e/w double. I have a feeling Kilcruit will go for this race and Sir Gerhard for the Bally, but may depend on how good Hubrisko is..time will tell.
I can understand that Jonbon isn't any value now, but I snapped his price up early doors when I knew how much he was bought for. I personally believe that JP would not spend ?570,000 on a horse unless he knew it was a very good one. There were a few others who were willing to spend big on him as well. It's not like flat racing when they spend stupid amounts of money before they have barely walked, at least at the age of 4 now 5, the breeders and connections involved will know that they have something special in their hands and this would have been discussed behind the scenes way before he went to auction. Personally I think this horse could be a bit special, but the only snag I have with a good JP horse that they may go for the Betfair hurdle, which is a hard race to take in a month before Cheltenham where as for the Irish horses, you don't see them running in handicaps carrying top weight a race before the big one.
The other horse I like, which is as little shot in the dark is Hubrisko trained by Mullins and owed by Ricci and I think he has gone under the radar. Ricci was quoted as saying that they think they have a very exciting horse in their hands and his only race in France has worked out good since. Ricci is going to come good with another Supreme horse sooner or later and I think this could be the one.
I might have one more bet in this race but waiting to see where Sir Gerhard and Kilcruit go, but will end up in some sort of e/w double. I have a feeling Kilcruit will go for this race and Sir Gerhard for the Bally, but may depend on how good Hubrisko is..time will tell.
ComplyOrDie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021) & Moderator
Certainly was a very strange thing to say, given they've had Shishkin, Buveur D'air & Altior, to name but a few, in their ranks in recent seasons.
I can only assume he's shown a hell of a lot at home against some of his better crop of seasoned racehorses, but this is only an assumption, however I am also wise to the fact Hendo is no stranger to a certain level of hype regarding his novices.
FinalFurlong91
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Youd think he worked for coolmore the way he tries to sell all his horses as stars
Cashew King
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I couldn’t be having Hubrisko until I see more. He’s priced on who bought him & who now trains him. Not sure if you’ve viewed the 1m 4f French bumper he won - they trotted round in single file like ducks in water until sprinting off the final bend. It won by 8 but the second has ran 8 times & not won & the 3rd has managed to pick up a bumper & minor hurdle in France but was beat at Fontwell on its first start for Gary Moore & runs there again in a handicap at 2.30.
I’ve an small share in Gold Link (injured yesterday & out for 10 mths) but he was behind Grand Bornard in France who was also bought by Ricci & went to Mullins & he’s okay but no worldie!
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ComplyOrDie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021) & Moderator
Strangely finding myself agreeing yet also disagreeing about Hubriskos price :highly_amused: An 8 length victory on the flat in France has little to do with it though. Of course, the form can and probably is suspect, but he's had a year with Willie now, and any untold amount of improvement is possible.
He's of similar profile to Melon, IMO, although arguably brings better flat form to the table than Melon did. Can't remember what price Melon opened up at for the Supreme, but think it was shorter than 33/1?
The list of horses Willie has had from the flat in France include Melon, as noted above, Benie Des Dieux, Sharjah, Blue Lord and Klassical Dream, as well as many others I'm sure, so it is a proven route for him to find a good one.
It is hard for the bookmakers not to price a Willie Mullins horse slightly shorter than most given his record in the race, although I don't think the Rich Ricci factor is much a problem for them anymore. It's been a few years since he's had a decent Supreme or Ballymore contender now.
Unfortunately waiting to see more of a Willie Mullins horse comes with its risks. If said horse puts up a Douvan like performance first time up then that 33/1-25/1 becomes 12/1-10/1. Is it really value then, having dotted round in an ordinary maiden? Then come the questions of what said horse has beat still, and it's just an ongoing set of questions, until the price becomes too short altogether to back anyway.
The risks the other way are that said horse doesn't even make the track or when it does puts up a performance that wouldn't have it close to a Supreme.
I prefer to be onboard as early as possible, although cash out is significant to this, but appreciate this approach is not for everyone.