2022 Novice Chase Division

[Lbur4288]

I am intending to get The Bosses Oscar into my book for the NH chase. 33/1 in places at the moment and ticks a lot of boxes for me.

 

[Garrison Savannah]

I am intending to get The Bosses Oscar into my book for the NH chase. 33/1 in places at the moment and ticks a lot of boxes for me.

You’re not the only one - though I think it’d be wise to wait to hear of his well being after lto

 

[Lobos]

You’re not the only one - though I think it’d be wise to wait to hear of his well being after lto

Agree. Stable tours won't be too long coming once the crappy Flat season is done with !

 

[Deleted member 4957]

I am intending to get The Bosses Oscar into my book for the NH chase. 33/1 in places at the moment and ticks a lot of boxes for me.

I’ve got a sneak he’ll be their Kim Muir horse.
The experience Run Wild Fred has accumulated as well as the ability he has shown suggests to me he’ll be the Elliott #1 horse for the NHC.
That would give Elliott two serious chances of gold…

 

[Lbur4288]

I’ve got a sneak he’ll be their Kim Muir horse.
The experience Run Wild Fred has accumulated as well as the ability he has shown suggests to me he’ll be the Elliott #1 horse for the NHC.
That would give Elliott two serious chances of gold…

We would have to see a few losing runs if he was to go down that path to bring his UK rating down. Wouldnt be the first time that's been done.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

I’ve got a sneak he’ll be their Kim Muir horse.
The experience Run Wild Fred has accumulated as well as the ability he has shown suggests to me he’ll be the Elliott #1 horse for the NHC.
That would give Elliott two serious chances of gold…

He is a 154 hurdler, on his BHA performance indicator of his Pertemps Final run.

So he would have to regress sharply over fences to avoid being too high in the weights.

I think that’s a big ask, given the way the BHA ‘capper leans heavily on prior season Hurdles ratings, and the HRI don’t.

I started thinking NHC for him, but now I am thinking Pertemps Try Number 2.

What I am waiting to hear is that he is fit and well, after his horrid jump at the second last at Fairyhouse.

 

[FinalFurlong91]

I dont get the RWF for the NHC personally

He really doesn't look like he's particularly interested in putting it all in to me

And hes a poor jumper when ridden for pressure

I just dont see him being good enough unless its a weak renewal

 

[Lobos]

He is a 154 hurdler, on his BHA performance indicator of his Pertemps Final run.

So he would have to regress sharply over fences to avoid being too high in the weights.

I think that’s a big ask, given the way the BHA ‘capper leans heavily on prior season Hurdles ratings, and the HRI don’t.

I started thinking NHC for him, but now I am thinking Pertemps Try Number 2.

What I am waiting to hear is that he is fit and well, after his horrid jump at the second last at Fairyhouse.

Found this re TBO Fairyhouse race.....

068D The Underwriting Exchange H'dle
The Irish Horseracing Regulatory Board Veterinary Officer examined The Bosses Oscar, trained by Mrs Denise Foster, at the request of the Stewards and reported the animal to be post race normal.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

He is a 154 hurdler, on his BHA performance indicator of his Pertemps Final run.

So he would have to regress sharply over fences

I was under the impression his hurdle mark was 150 and given that it would take too much creativity to see his chase mark duck under 145…

 

[Saxon Warrior]

I was under the impression his hurdle mark was 150 and given that it would take too much creativity to see his chase mark duck under 145…

On the BHA website they give Irish horses that ran in the UK a Provisional Rating for that race.

For the Pertemps Final The Bosses Oscar was given 154 Provisional Rating.

From their website

1:55pm @ Cheltenham / Thu 18 Mar 2021
2m 7f 213y (Class 1) / Good to Soft
Handicap Ran Off: 151
BHA Performance Figure: 154
Handicapper: Gordan Markham

POS: 2 of 22

Jockey: Jordan Gainford

Weight Carried: 11-5

Prize: gbp 15,900.00

Usually that means when they run here again the BHA will give them 154 and then begin their work to recalc if that rating should now be the same, higher or lower based on form from any races that had been shown since.

They could put him closer to 150.

But if he goes chasing, and doesn't get the chance to show any change to his Hurdles form/rating, then its a big ask for them to go down to 145 for his Novice Chasing when his Hurdles mark as a 6yo was improving to 154 at Cheltenham.

I'm sure Gordon will have a plan, and if TBO was fit and well post his hurdles blunder at Fairyhouse, (as noted in the post above immediately after the race) at least he starts the season being able to work on it with a fit horse, which is a big relief.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I have a gut feeling that none of us on here have yet mentioned next year's NHC winner. He's out there somewhere though !! The race always throws up a surprise winner.

Dickie Diver to break Hendo's hoodoo in the race :triumphant:

 

[Spectre]

The Bosses Oscar is an interesting one, not least because they clearly think a lot of him, and he could go pretty much anywhere this season. Novice Chasing aimed at the Marsh, RSA, or the NH Chase. Handicap chasing as a novice in the Plate, the Festival Chase, or the Kim Muir with careful mark management. Or he could stay over hurdles and go for the Stayers, or stay handicapping in the Coral Cup or the Pertemps. Nine different possibilities is a lot of races to specifically nail your colours to the mast for just one.

I think we need to consider that Elliott will be desperate for Festival winners this season, and looking at all the ammunition he's got, and his normal go to races, he'll have spent months plotting his horses. So given how close The Bosses Oscar went last season, I suspect he won't be able to resist aiming at a handicap of some kind. Whether it's hurdles or fences, I'm pretty much convinced that any his campaign will be all about getting a winning mark. We know his go to method of getting winners at the Festival is using graded horses as handicappers, and TBO fits the bill perfectly.

After losing some big name owners, and Gigi withdrawing, Gordon needs new owners, and he knows that Festival winners means new people will spend money with him. He can't afford a quiet Festival, or he's going to be left a long way behind by Willie, overtaken by De Bromhead, and vulnerable to the likes of Cromwell and even Emmett Mullins et al for new money spent. This season is almost more important than those when he was first finding his way, because if he doesn't make a splash he's going to go shooting down the pecking order of go to Irish trainers.

Back to where TBO will end up, Run Wild Fred is the obvious stable number one for the NH Chase, and has pretty much the perfect profile for the race, so I can't imagine either Eliott or the Moran's wanting to waste a quality Festival dart to play second fiddle to a stablemate. And will he want to take on Bob Ollinger, My Drogo, Galopin Des Champs, etc in the other two races? I don't think so. Therefore as I said above, I think a novice chase campaign would be all about his mark and getting the right one for the right race, with a switch to the NH Chase only on the cards if something happened to Run wild Fred. I also suspect if he's novice chasing he'll run in the UK at some point before the Festival to give the UK handicapper no room for adding a bunch of weight when the weights are released.

If he stays over hurdles, his campaign can only be the Stayers or the Pertemps, with no obvious reason to drop back in trip for the Coral Cup. Gordon's record in the Stayers isn't the best and would he be good enough anyway, so a return to the Pertemps would surely be the logical race, particularly as Gordon has had success with return visits previously.

As for my own position, I currently have TBO backed for the NH Chase, but I've been considering ditching the bet for a while now, but I just haven't been able to completely convince myself to do it. I think I probably will though, because the first 'season guide' or 'to follow' list that mentions him staying over hurdles will mean cashout is gone. It feels safer to back him at a shorter price later, or back him in the any race market, than to hold on and get caught.

 

[Middle_Of_March]

I’ve just been watching a few races back as things slowly start to get into the swing of it now (I always start off slowly towards the end of august) and Galopin Des Champs Punchestown win really was even more impressive than I remembered.

I remember watching it, everyone going crazy at what was happening when he lengthened off the bend, and then getting on for the RSA as he was crossing the line.

Nothing in racing will excite me more than Bob Olinger (coincidentally is now my favourite horse in training after Benies retirement) but my word GDC is exciting isn’t he? I don’t think the form of that race will be incredibly strong but a hyped up Willie Mullins Grade 1 winning hurdler (on the snaff) whos also won at the festival over hurdles going novice chasing (presumably)... that’s the sort of thing that we all want to have to look forward to going into a new jumps season.

Never want to be one to wish my life away but roll on the Hennessy meeting to really start the season. We’re so so close lads!

 

[Lobos]

Agree GDC was very impressive that day. He stays but doesn't lack pace either. Similar to Bollinger. I think it'll be a toss up between him and GDM as to whether they go RSA or Marsh. GDM looks like the more one paced of the two after watching his races back. It'll be mighty interesting where they both start out. I'm hoping he doesn't send one of them down the Stayers route but it looks like he has nut job Klassical Dream for that.

 

[Salubrious Chin]

Few comments from Patrick Mullins regarding Appreciate It and Ferny Hollow, courtesy of @tayz2017 on Twitter.

 

[Salubrious Chin]

Link here:

twitter.com/tayz2017/status/1431373979994951690?s=21

 

[Zachx02]

Interesting comment on Ferny Hollow, if he does go chasing, will both him and Appreciate it go to the Arkle? I'd imagine they'd send Appreciate It a bit further

 

[Imperial Commander]

Link here:

twitter.com/tayz2017/status/1431373979994951690?s=21

Thanks SC, always read that sort of thing.
But Patrick talks so much shite that I'm never sure whether to ignore his comments completely or just take the completely opposite view! :excitement:

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Interesting comment on Ferny Hollow, if he does go chasing, will both him and Appreciate it go to the Arkle? I'd imagine they'd send Appreciate It a bit further

Yes, if they both go Novice Chasing, that would make sense.

I wouldnt see them competing with each other if they end up being much the best 2M-2M4F Novices for the stable.

 

[FinalFurlong91]

He doesnt really say anything does he

Might go chasing might stay over hurdles
Might stay at 2 miles might go up in trip

Thanks Patrick haha