2022 Novice Chase Division

[Ballyfitz]

I have requested SOD to win today and any race at the festival to see what they say

Sky have this priced up at 25/1

 

[Lobos]

I'd say a perfect run from SOD there for NHC backers. Tight track, inadequate distance, ground on the quick side for him and giving away a stone. Win that race and he looks more like an RSA horse. Jumped adequately, stayed on again at the end and more valuable chase experience gained which is the main thing. 3m 6f around a track that he's already won on plus guaranteed good/soft ground or worse ,at level weights ,with a top amatuer up and you have a nice recipe. Like many, if not all, of the Irish horses at the top of the NHC betting, the Irish Grand National is most likely his end of season target but things will change as the season progresses. He's a nice one to have in the book at this point.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

I'd say a perfect run from SOD there for NHC backers. Tight track, inadequate distance, ground on the quick side for him and giving away a stone. Win that race and he looks more like an RSA horse. Jumped adequately, stayed on again at the end and more valuable chase experience gained which is the main thing. 3m 6f around a track that he's already won on plus guaranteed good/soft ground or worse ,at level weights ,with a top amatuer up and you have a nice recipe. Like many, if not all, of the Irish horses at the top of the NHC betting, the Irish Grand National is most likely his end of season target but things will change as the season progresses. He's a nice one to have in the book at this point.

The Fairyhouse Easter meeting should have a lot less impact on some of the Cheltenham Festival races this season.

Easter is over 4 weeks away from Cheltenham this time, so horses can run in races at both without much of a problem.

 

[Lobos]

The Fairyhouse Easter meeting should have a lot less impact on some of the Cheltenham Festival races this season.

Easter is over 4 weeks away from Cheltenham this time, so horses can run in races at both without much of a problem.

Good to know and encouraging for horses potentially doubling up. SOD runs very regularly as well so it'll suit him

 

[Fouroverthrutwo]

Does anyone have any idea what happened to Jon Snow and Elixir D'ainay by any chance, was looking at potentially unraced novice chasers for Willie and these 2 came to mind as they may not have been mentioned yet as potential options

Elixir D'ainay suffered 'a slight setback' in December 2020 and hasn't run since. Don't know any more about the injury or the horse's progress.
In Willie Mullins stable tour in January 2021 he talks of Jon Snow: 'Unfortunately he met with a setback a few weeks ago, so the winter is off the cards for him. He’ll resume hurdling in the spring'. Again, the horse's wellbeing is unknown.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Doyen's seem to be real stayers over the stick CoD. Most are up to three miles over hurdles relatively quickly.

Whether Streets Of Doyen is a NH Chase horse remains to be seen of course, but he's one I backed fairly early as a likely type.

I'm looking at the top end of his progeny over fences:

Battleoverdoyen - Best RPR over a fence was over 2m 3f and his second best over 2m, his one try over 3m at Cheltenham (albeit his novice season) saw him well beat.

Beacon Edge - Yet to run over a fence, arguably absolutely fine over hurdles at 3m though.

Valdez - Best RPR's of 159 (recorded twice) over 2m.

Kumbeshwar - Top RPR of 159 over 1m 71/2f.

Hatcher - Top RPR of 153 over 2m 1f.

All the above are the only 5 produced by Doyen that received an official rating of 150 or above, so he's hardly prolific at producing horses for the very top anyway, reminds me a little of Getaway, when it comes to Cheltenham anyway. I know some trainers, like Elliott, have commented saying they see Battleoverdoyen as a big staying chasing type, which seems to have stuck with some people, but the form doesn't lie.

I personally think a horse like Streets Of Doyen would be best suited to something like the Plate than a NH Chase.

 

[Spectre]

I'm looking at the top end of his progeny over fences:

Battleoverdoyen - Best RPR over a fence was over 2m 3f and his second best over 2m, his one try over 3m at Cheltenham (albeit his novice season) saw him well beat.

Beacon Edge - Yet to run over a fence, arguably absolutely fine over hurdles at 3m though.

Valdez - Best RPR's of 159 (recorded twice) over 2m.

Kumbeshwar - Top RPR of 159 over 1m 71/2f.

Hatcher - Top RPR of 153 over 2m 1f.

All the above are the only 5 produced by Doyen that received an official rating of 150 or above, so he's hardly prolific at producing horses for the very top anyway, reminds me a little of Getaway, when it comes to Cheltenham anyway. I know some trainers, like Elliott, have commented saying they see Battleoverdoyen as a big staying chasing type, which seems to have stuck with some people, but the form doesn't lie.

I personally think a horse like Streets Of Doyen would be best suited to something like the Plate than a NH Chase.

Good post CoD.

There's also a bunch of 140 RPR horses that are a real mixed bag across two, two and half, and three. It could suggest that Doyen's are much more heavily influenced by the damside than is usual, but on looking at any patterns I can't see anything obvious. He just seems to be very versatile.

It's interesting looking at his flat progeny, and it's very similar. He doesn't seem to have horses that go to the very top, but has had a handful of of flat horses that have topped OR100.

A pattern than does appear to be there is that in both codes they seem to want further as they get older.

What Doyen is, is consistent. He's a very solid and reliable sire of winners, without being spectacular in both codes. And I think that's it in a nutshell. If you're investing in bloodstock in some way, you have a really good chance of having a winning horse if it's a Doyen, but you're unlikely to have a G1 horse on your hands.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

What Doyen is, is consistent. He's a very solid and reliable sire of winners, without being spectacular in both codes. And I think that's it in a nutshell. If you're investing in bloodstock in some way, you have a really good chance of having a winning horse if it's a Doyen, but you're unlikely to have a G1 horse on your hands.

I think that fairly sums it up from an investment perspective, however, from a betting perspective I wouldn't be backing his horses in top races myself.

 

[nortonscoin200]

I'd say a perfect run from SOD there for NHC backers. Tight track, inadequate distance, ground on the quick side for him and giving away a stone. Win that race and he looks more like an RSA horse. Jumped adequately, stayed on again at the end and more valuable chase experience gained which is the main thing. 3m 6f around a track that he's already won on plus guaranteed good/soft ground or worse ,at level weights ,with a top amatuer up and you have a nice recipe. Like many, if not all, of the Irish horses at the top of the NHC betting, the Irish Grand National is most likely his end of season target but things will change as the season progresses. He's a nice one to have in the book at this point.

Worcester's fences are at the easy end of the scale and to me Streets of Doyen didn't look very fluent at all.

He's going to have to sharpen up his jumping quite considerably to get in the shake up over 3m 6f at Cheltenham.

Not one for me, I'm afraid.

 

[archie]

Agree with CoD about Doyen. I don't think that he produces stayers, more horses who run on honestly at the end of a race. This can give the impression that they're staying on when they're not and have them run over longer trips than ideal. I would have grave doubts about Streets of Doyen staying 3m6f and agree that the Plate is a more realistic target.

Yesterday's run would have to go down as disappointing. His jumping was moderate and he was being ridden a fair way from home without noticeable response. Worcester, far from being a tight track, is very fair with long straights and easy turns so there is no excuse for not getting in a rhythm. Any horse deserves a second chance but you couldn't take any encouragement out of yesterday.

 

[Spectre]

That could well end up being true, but I wouldn't be giving up on Streets Over Doyen because of his jumping or being beaten at Worcester giving 12 pounds away to an improving Nicholls 130 chaser.

Staying on third in the Albert Bartlett ahead of some very useful horses doesn't suggest staying is a problem for him, and experience over fences counts for a lot in novice chases and open handicaps come March. McConnell is never shy of running his horses and you'd imagine he'll improve heaps in the next seven months. He'll probably run another three or four times before being put away when the winter ground arrives, and then brought back for a pre-Festival prep somewhere.

Depending on his handicap mark will presumably be the deciding factor whether he goes for one of the handicaps, or the NH Chase or RSA. Of the two novice chases the former is more likely where he would have a better chance with a good amateur on board. Whichever race he ends up in I've no doubt he'll head to the Festival, and I think an antepost bet on the NH Chase with cashout is fair enough,

 

[archie]

That could well end up being true, but I wouldn't be giving up on Streets Over Doyen because of his jumping or being beaten at Worcester giving 12 pounds away to an improving Nicholls 130 chaser.

Staying on third in the Albert Bartlett ahead of some very useful horses doesn't suggest staying is a problem for him, and experience over fences counts for a lot in novice chases and open handicaps come March. McConnell is never shy of running his horses and you'd imagine he'll improve heaps in the next seven months. He'll probably run another three or four times before being put away when the winter ground arrives, and then brought back for a pre-Festival prep somewhere.

Depending on his handicap mark will presumably be the deciding factor whether he goes for one of the handicaps, or the NH Chase or RSA. Of the two novice chases the former is more likely where he would have a better chance with a good amateur on board. Whichever race he ends up in I've no doubt he'll head to the Festival, and I think an antepost bet on the NH Chase with cashout is fair enough,

One man's 'staying on' is another man's 'running on at one pace'.

You wouldn't rule him out on the basis of one poor run but poor it was yesterday and there are no positives to be taken from it.

I only see this from the point of view of picking the winner with one or two bets. I quite accept that building a book is a different mindset especially with cash out.

 

[Spectre]

One man's 'staying on' is another man's 'running on at one pace'.

I think that's a fair point Archie, and I agree it's easy to interpret either way.

I think in the case of Streets Over Doyen, it's okay either way though. We know he has enough basic ability to take in decent races if he jumps well enough, and there is sufficient in his background to suggest a trip isn't an issue. In fact arguably getting 3m6f in the G2 NH Chase is easier than getting 3m in the G1 RSA.

Of course he didn't jump well enough at Worcester, and on a bad day, which he's had before, it's his basic ability that got him close enough to an improving novice giving a load of weight away. If McConnell sharpens up his jumping then I still see him as interesting. His overall profile also suggests a stiff track is better for him, and a flat track like Worcester may not play to his strengths.

The book approach is important as you point out though. I most definitely am not making a case for him as the winner of the NH Chase at this stage. Just that he's one I want in my mix at 40/1.

 

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

One man's 'staying on' is another man's 'running on at one pace'.

You wouldn't rule him out on the basis of one poor run but poor it was yesterday and there are no positives to be taken from it.

I only see this from the point of view of picking the winner with one or two bets. I quite accept that building a book is a different mindset especially with cash out.

I would interpret ‘staying on’ as closing the gap to the leading horses approaching the finish, whereas ‘running on at one pace’ would more likely indicate no closure of the gap.

 

[Lobos]

I have a gut feeling that none of us on here have yet mentioned next year's NHC winner. He's out there somewhere though !! The race always throws up a surprise winner. I don't know the stats but I doubt very much that the eventual winner has ever been in the top 10 in the AP betting at this time of year. I do love the race though and am determined to have the winner again.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

I have a gut feeling that none of us on here have yet mentioned next year's NHC winner. He's out there somewhere though !! The race always throws up a surprise winner.

I’d be fairly sure the majority of winners in the past 10-15 years were well fancied, perhaps not all short prices in August but certainly well touted by Autumn…

 

[Lobos]

I’d be fairly sure the majority of winners in the past 10-15 years were well fancied, perhaps not all short prices in August but certainly well touted by Autumn…

Autumn yes, August.... very much doubt many if any were in top 10 of betting. Don't suppose there's any hope of checking it though??? There's a 100/1 shot lurking out there now.

 

[Spectre]

Galvin last year Lobos! :barbershop_quartet_member::highly_amused:

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Ravenhill and Rathvinden would both have been high on the list in ante post books, both ironically coming through the previous Summer novice chase programme…

 

[Lobos]

Think all 3 of those would have been 33s+ at this time. Galvin was 20's TWAR as I backed him so would have been much bigger to win the NHC outright. Took 33's on Rathvinden at this time as well. Ravenhill would have been very big as he disappointed at Galway.

JUST looked through last year's posts ....... Galvin was 25's on August 22 ......not sure who was head of the market though.