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Epsom Derby 2021

I’ve been playing Adayar and One Ruler who I think has been totally forgotten.
The AOB exodus has probably killed the hope of any 5/6 places being offered, every chance 4 places will appear after tomorrows decs but I’ve secured upwards of 33s on both so have the price.
All eyes on the draw...
 
Saxon Warrior said:
It was a form boost as much as Lough Derg’s wasn’t. :encouragement:

/SIZE]
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Lough Derg has been beaten by him twice though and Mac Swiney is a different horse on soft, and as FF91 says he wasn't well after.

Mac Swiney to my mind is no form boost.

Lough Derg to me isn't ideal for the form but he was well beaten by BB so it's not overly concerning.
 
▪︎ Adayar
▪︎ Bolshoi Ballet
▪︎ Gear Up
▪︎ Hurricane Lane
▪︎ John Leeper
▪︎ Mac Swiney
▪︎ Mohaafeth
▪︎ Mojo Star
▪︎ One Ruler
▪︎ Southern Lights
▪︎ Third Realm
▪︎ Youth Spirit

12 runners

The Ballydoyle plan to run one in the Derby is on.

The first time for 17 years they have only a single horse in the race.
 
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As few as 12 running would limit the impact of any draw bias, no real excuses for any of them seeing as there won't be a wall of AOB runners blocking the way
 
Saxon Warrior said:
▪︎ Adayar
▪︎ Bolshoi Ballet
▪︎ Gear Up
▪︎ Hurricane Lane
▪︎ John Leeper
▪︎ Mac Swiney
▪︎ Mohaafeth
▪︎ Mojo Star
▪︎ One Ruler
▪︎ Southern Lights
▪︎ Third Realm
▪︎ Youth Spirit

12 runners

The Ballydoyle plan to run one in the Derby is on.

The first time for 17 years they have only a single horse in the race.
Click to expand...

Adayar - Stall 1
Third Realm - Stall 2
Southern Lights - Stall 3
Mohaafeth - Stall 4
Hurricane Lane - Stall 5
Gear Up - Stall 6
Youth Spirit - Stall 7
MacSwiney - Stall 8
Bolshoi Ballet - Stall 9
Mojo Star - Stall 10
One Ruler - Stall 11
John Leeper - Stall 12
 
That Horse said:
As few as 12 running would limit the impact of any draw bias, no real excuses for any of them seeing as there won't be a wall of AOB runners blocking the way
Click to expand...

It dawned on me, as soon as I heard the one runner theory, that they were cutting down on traffic problems, by removing five horses, if they had one horse that is their confident selection, over their other stable runners.
 
My 3 antepost selections left standing all conveniently lined up beside each other; southern lights, Mohaafeth, hurricane lane.

I think I'll add youth spirit to that quota when each way opens up on Betfair exchange.

Don't know why but I'm really looking forward to this year's Derby more so than in previous years. Probably mainly because I'll have covered a 3rd of the field and even if they all get chinned, my losses won't be that bad haha! Should have paid attention to the very first post in this thread though......
 
Only 12 runners, for the ninth time since stalls were introduced in 1967.

Winning stalls in the previous eight races with 12 runners were:'

10, 10, 9, 4, 8, 10, 8, 10.

Draw bias for stalls 8, 9, 10, on that small sample.

Runners in those stalls this time are:-

MacSwiney 8
Bolshoi Ballet 9
Mojo Star 10
 
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Wow, stall 10 won half the races !!

Richard Hannon on Mojo Star

He is a Sea The Stars colt who was second at Newbury on debut last season, I thought that he had won but he was beaten in a photo. He has grown and has done extremely well.

We are going to start him off in a novice race and he could be a very good horse, I hope. He is definitely one of the dark horses for the year. He looks like a champ, is by the right stallion and has got no end of ability.
 
Lobos said:
Wow, stall 10 won half the races !!

Richard Hannon on Mojo Star

He is a Sea The Stars colt who was second at Newbury on debut last season, I thought that he had won but he was beaten in a photo. He has grown and has done extremely well.

We are going to start him off in a novice race and he could be a very good horse, I hope. He is definitely one of the dark horses for the year. He looks like a champ, is by the right stallion and has got no end of ability.
Click to expand...

Nice quote that, Lobos.
 
Lobos said:
Wow, stall 10 won half the races !!

Richard Hannon on Mojo Star

He is a Sea The Stars colt who was second at Newbury on debut last season, I thought that he had won but he was beaten in a photo. He has grown and has done extremely well.

We are going to start him off in a novice race and he could be a very good horse, I hope. He is definitely one of the dark horses for the year. He looks like a champ, is by the right stallion and has got no end of ability.
Click to expand...

150s still available on bet365, may be worth a small stake punt each way
 
Saxon Warrior said:
Only 12 runners, for the ninth time since stalls were introduced in 1967.

Winning stalls in the previous eight races with 12 runners were:'

10, 10, 9, 4, 8, 10, 8, 10.

Draw bias for stalls 8, 9, 10, on that small sample.

Runners in those stalls this time are:-

MacSwiney 8
Bolshoi Ballet 9
Mojo Star 10
Click to expand...

Being drawn low and getting stuck on that rail with knowhere to go is such a disadvantage

need plenty of luck or to be by miles the best horse
 
After all this rain and all the ridiculous watering will mohaafeth even run?

the culture of watering is farcical, whats wrong with gd to firm for flat horses ffs
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
After all this rain and all the ridiculous watering will mohaafeth even run?

the culture of watering is farcical, whats wrong with gd to firm for flat horses ffs
Click to expand...

I've cashed out on him where I can, I still have my 100+/1 ticket on him as that's non cash out but his chance surely gone now. He's 6/1 for the king Edward which is no fucking appeal either
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
After all this rain and all the ridiculous watering will mohaafeth even run?

the culture of watering is farcical, whats wrong with gd to firm for flat horses ffs
Click to expand...

Either they have bad advisors or they have got really unlucky, this ground is horrible for such a high profile meeting and the watering clearly biting them in the arse now.
Could be even worse tomorrow, warm and sunny all day could make it sticky and a brutal test of stamina…
 
I've landed on Third Realm in the big one today. He has to over come a poor draw but I really like his chances. Watched the Lingfield trail back again this morning and he was really impressive - not sure why he's such a big price.

Famous last words but I can't see him being out of the first 5:beaten:
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
I've landed on Third Realm in the big one today. He has to over come a poor draw but I really like his chances. Watched the Lingfield trail back again this morning and he was really impressive - not sure why he's such a big price.

Famous last words but I can't see him being out of the first 5:beaten:
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I'm with you on Third Realm. He settles really well and I loved the way he accelerated round the bend at Lingfield and then winning quite snugly imo. Reminded me I was lucky on High Rise all those years ago as it's the same owner. I'm also having Mac Swiney as think this has been the plan and Jim Bolger is having a cracking season.
 
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Istabraq said:
Either they have bad advisors or they have got really unlucky, this ground is horrible for such a high profile meeting and the watering clearly biting them in the arse now.
Could be even worse tomorrow, warm and sunny all day could make it sticky and a brutal test of stamina…
Click to expand...

Masar's Derby was on slow side of good, after having been soft for Together Forever's Oaks win. 23degrees on Saturday like today is due to be. Well that's what the clerk is saying...
 
jack1092 said:
Masar's Derby was on slow side of good, after having been soft for Together Forever's Oaks win. 23degrees on Saturday like today is due to be. Well that's what the clerk is saying...
Click to expand...

Yep remember it well.
I was a shrewdie that year, backed Masar at 25/1 for the Guinneas and 50/1 for the Derby in the Winter, cashed out the Derby bet and let the Guinneas bet ride.

Re the ground I know they were faced with a dilemma earlier in the week but the rain was always on the radar and from Thursday morning it was confirmed to hit the track but they still got the hoses out Thursday night.
As FinalFurlong91 said earlier what is wrong with genuinely quick ground, it's what these top level flat horses were bred to race on...
 
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