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Aintree Day 1

If there's a horse i think is reasonably overpriced it is Wheres Maud Gone. She beat Salt Wind by 8ls on her debut, who has ran good races + since won a Fairyhouse maiden by 5ls RPR125. Sam Curling said after her win. "She is a good filly. She was actually entered in a point to point last weekend but she was showing so much pace we said we'd come here." Third won a bumper and ran decent over first 2 hurdle starts. 4th finished 1.5ls off recent Fairyhouse handicap winner Stand Off.
Sold to Laura Morgan, a trainer very adept with her bumper runners, 43 runners, 9 winners and 8 placed in the last 5 seasons, she went to Ayr and faced NI raider Condesa. She only ended up beating her a Nk but also gave her 7pd (she travelled very well but Condesa stuck on well). The Crawfords have been back doing well in bumpers this season especially in the UK. Condesa then went on to run very nicely behind Party Central at the weekend getting 4pds. Party Central was beaten a nk by Grangee off levels, who was beaten 8.5ls by Eileendover. Grangee carried 10pd more that day when beaten by Eileendover.
So by my workings that doesn't leave Eileendover an evens shot vs 20/1. O'Connor booked to ride.

1 favourite has won this in the last 9 renewals as well. In saying that, i don't think she should even be favourite and come the day she might well not be.
 
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Like a couple in Sametegal and Zanza that have already been mentioned quite heavily above.

Also will have a small e/w play on Where’s Maud Gone in the mares bumper - she’s very well-bred and I’ve heard that connections think they have a good one on their hands. I’d respect Elle Est Belle also, with her form at Cheltenham last month being clearly the best in the field imo.
 
jack1092 said:
If there's a horse i think is reasonably overpriced it is Wheres Maud Gone. She beat Salt Wind by 8ls on her debut, who has ran good races + since won a Fairyhouse maiden by 5ls RPR125. Sam Curling said after her win. "She is a good filly. She was actually entered in a point to point last weekend but she was showing so much pace we said we'd come here." Third won a bumper and ran decent over first 2 hurdle starts. 4th finished 1.5ls off recent Fairyhouse handicap winner Stand Off.
Sold to Laura Morgan, a trainer very adept with her bumper runners, 43 runners, 9 winners and 8 placed in the last 5 seasons, she went to Ayr and faced NI raider Condesa. She only ended up beating her a Nk but also gave her 7pd (she travelled very well but Condesa stuck on well). The Crawfords have been back doing well in bumpers this season especially in the UK. Condesa then went on to run very nicely behind Party Central at the weekend getting 4pds. Party Central was beaten a nk by Grangee off levels, who was beaten 8.5ls by Eileendover. Grangee carried 10pd more that day when beaten by Eileendover.
So by my workings that doesn't leave Eileendover an evens shot vs 20/1. O'Connor booked to ride.

1 favourite has won this in the last 9 renewals as well. In saying that, i don't think she should even be favourite and come the day she might well not be.
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Great minds think alike, Jack :welcoming:

On a serious note, your write up is excellent and strengthens my resolve with her. Fingers crossed for a good run.
 
Very much keen on Waiting Patiently, Adagio, Moon Over Germany and Song For Someone on day 1. All just look far too big imo for various different reasons.

I will elaborate more tomorrow but in particular, Adagio is miles too big at 9/4 & Moon Over Germany is a 7s shot available at 14s. Value..
 
Waiting patiently gives me headaches

He seems to run on into the places no matter the trip

Just for once just to see what happens I wish they'd ride him handier
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
My selections so far

Manifesto Novice chase
The Shunter

I dont think this looks a very strong grade 1 at all, and I am happy to give the shunter a chance out of handicap company. Haven't backed him yet so this will be price dependant.

Betway Bowl
Mister Fisher e/w 10/1 (AP)

Think Clan is opposable going left handed, Tiger is opposable over normal fences, Waiting Patiently never wins these days, Native River would prefer softer ground and a stiffer track.

So sided with the younger horse e/w hoping he can get into a better jumping rhythm over 3 miles, though I'm worried about how hard a race the ryanair was but the double figures tempted me in.

Aintree Hurdle
Mcfabulous 7/2 (AP)

Horse hated Fontwell, didnt look happy from some way out going around such a tight track, back at a proper track I expect him to be back to his best and have had him pencilled in as the winner of this race all season.

Brewinupastorm looks the main danger but I'm hopeful he will reverse the form.

Red Rum handicap
Zanza e/w 10/1 (AP)

If staying on his feet, on a line though sky pirate and ibleo he is very very well handicapped.

Any day 1 fancies for you guys?
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Day1
13.45 Phoenix Way (ew)
14.20 Adagio (nap)
14.50 Waiting Patiently
15.25 Abracadabras
Buveur DAir (ew)
16.05 Billaway
16.40 Getaway Trump
17.15 Wheres Maud Gone

Only suggestions and Buveur DAir is more in hope than anything else :angel:
 
jack1092 said:
Went off 11/2 and bolted in. Gainford's stealing his claim, regardless of your view on how to interpret the claim itself (i know Archie doesn't take the 7lb literally). You could interpret his last run as a prep. We know the English remain to have terribly handicapped horses.

Is 14/1 right? I'd say he's single figures anyway.

Like Honeyball's horse as well.
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in 2019 is ran off 136 when the ground came up soft and the race wasn't too deep. 2 years on and he carries more weight even with the claim, has poor form on anything with good in the going description, and is racing in a better race. 14/1 might be a little big, but its by no means a gift.
 
jack1092 said:
If there's a horse i think is reasonably overpriced it is Wheres Maud Gone. She beat Salt Wind by 8ls on her debut, who has ran good races + since won a Fairyhouse maiden by 5ls RPR125. Sam Curling said after her win. "She is a good filly. She was actually entered in a point to point last weekend but she was showing so much pace we said we'd come here." Third won a bumper and ran decent over first 2 hurdle starts. 4th finished 1.5ls off recent Fairyhouse handicap winner Stand Off.
Sold to Laura Morgan, a trainer very adept with her bumper runners, 43 runners, 9 winners and 8 placed in the last 5 seasons, she went to Ayr and faced NI raider Condesa. She only ended up beating her a Nk but also gave her 7pd (she travelled very well but Condesa stuck on well). The Crawfords have been back doing well in bumpers this season especially in the UK. Condesa then went on to run very nicely behind Party Central at the weekend getting 4pds. Party Central was beaten a nk by Grangee off levels, who was beaten 8.5ls by Eileendover. Grangee carried 10pd more that day when beaten by Eileendover.
So by my workings that doesn't leave Eileendover an evens shot vs 20/1. O'Connor booked to ride.

1 favourite has won this in the last 9 renewals as well. In saying that, i don't think she should even be favourite and come the day she might well not be.
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She was ill during her first bumper win according to the owners with gastric ulcers so she did well to win so impressively. She was in my tracker after that win and I was surprised at her price. She is definitely overpriced at 20/1.
 
Lobos said:
Think Jason The Millitant is the best bet on the 1st Day. Kept fresh specifically for this race , Will love the tight flat course and the 2 1/2 miles, has really solid form and the hottest combination of trainer/Jockey.
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Henry is not so hot at the moment!
 
My early stabs at tomorrow......

The Shunter
Adagio
Waiting Patiently
Latenightpass
On The Slopes
 
Lobos said:
Think Jason The Millitant is the best bet on the 1st Day. Kept fresh specifically for this race , Will love the tight flat course and the 2 1/2 miles, has really solid form and the hottest combination of trainer/Jockey.
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Prominent in my thoughts too Lobos. Historically a big Abracadabras fan, but nothing on any of his runs says to me he wants an extra 4f.

Song for Someone looks like he'll love this too
 
charlie said:
in 2019 is ran off 136 when the ground came up soft and the race wasn't too deep. 2 years on and he carries more weight even with the claim, has poor form on anything with good in the going description, and is racing in a better race. 14/1 might be a little big, but its by no means a gift.
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I don't particularly fancy him off the weight, but he will go off shorter than 14s and he could be a trading opportunity.

Haven't lost faith in Sully D'oc from Cheltenham, or Zanza. This race usually goes to a horse racing prominently however, which those two are likely not to do. I like Dostal Phil but he will also be racing off the pace and I marginally prefer the other two so I'll likely leave him unless he goes above 12/1 with extra places.

The pace likely to come from Editeur Du Gite, On the Slopes, Grey Diamond and Billingsley. Sitting just behind should be Joke Dancer who is coming off a long break. He can jump right at times, but his last race has worked out well. Record over 2 miles over fences reads F11FP1 so may be one to bet with Coral if they are doing the free bet if not finishing.

I'll wait until the day and see how the chase course is riding before deciding whether it's a bet or not.
 
lots of folk liking Jason The Militant on day one , but a note of caution the horse needs plenty cut , now whether the horse will perform to his best on faster ground is one thing , the main consideration is HDB, he won't run unless he's happy with the ground , if it was genuine soft ground i would be really keen on him , but i don't think it is , need to wait to see what its really like on the day maybe
 
Foxhunters Chase

I remember reading the interview with the trainer of Some Man during Cheltenham.

Here's a quote from Irish racing.com

After race at Down Royal Wed, 17th Mar, 2021 (1st) All the time we have had him we have never got him running on the ground he loves. He's a very good horse but at anything from two miles to two-miles-six he is just different gravy to everything else. I'll chat it over with Ray (Nicholas) - I'd nearly love to have a go at Aintree this year with him. We have to consider it. It warrants him getting an entry. Barry got off him and said 'I really enjoyed that, that has given me some buzz!'. He ran in Thurles there and ran a helluva race over just far enough for him, but the ground was desperate for him as he is just such a sweet mover. He hates going through glue. We were just waiting and hoping he would get a chance to run on the ground he loves. He has such a cruising speed and takes quite a hold. I think if you let him roll on nice ground, he shows what he is. I always felt the championship races over three mile one are just too far for him. He has too much class and speed for that. Two and a half miles is his ideal trip. D M Christie
Barry O Neill is booked to ride again. He is an outstanding champiin jockey in the p2p circuit for those who aren't familiar with the name.
I've had a few points win at 7-1

I'm also in the Moon Over Germany camp too.
He's only 2 lb higher in what I think is a weaker renewal and has an excellent claimer onboard.
Backed ew at 14-1

I've also had a few points ew on Not So Sleepy. I think the flatter track will suit and if he takes off out in front the flat track could play to his cause and he may be difficult to reel in. While he may not win I believe he has a strong ew chance.
Backed ew at 33-1
 
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robith said:
Prominent in my thoughts too Lobos. Historically a big Abracadabras fan, but nothing on any of his runs says to me he wants an extra 4f.

Song for Someone looks like he'll love this too
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I like Jason The Militant, but the Aintree hurdle course can be tough to win from the front, especially when there are a few in the race who like to be handy.

Song For Someone looks perfect for this to me.
 
In the Foxhunters I have chanced a small bet EW on Greensalt with extra places available at 100/1.

Is 13 years old and doesn't have the strongest back form but has run creditably in the 2018 & 2019 running of the race so clearly enjoys the fences. Better runs seem to have come with 'Good' in the ground description which will be the case this week. Run at Wetherby in Feb was ok over 3 miles but should have put him on track for tomorrow over the shorter distance.
 
Personally I cant have Abacadabras or Jason the militant at all

That form line between those two and Saint Roi has been shown to be naff

Maybe Jason the militant will improve for the step up in trip but Abacadabras has shown nothing to suggest he wants further

Iv backed mcfabulous and am tempted to go in again maybe with brewinupastorm too who looks revitalised back over hurdles

With all the pace in the race I just think it'll set up nicely for mcfabulous to pick them all off if he jumps well
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
Personally I cant have Abacadabras or Jason the militant at all

That form line between those two and Saint Roi has been shown to be naff
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Hasn't looked great, but he has a good form line with Beacon Edge and Petit Mouchoir. For all PM, doesn't win often, you can't argue with his placed form efforts.

I'd be pushed to argue McFabulous has any standout pieces of form, wouldn't you?
 
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Finally had a look I think tomorrow I'll be siding with the following:

Eldorado Allen
Adagio
Mister Fisher e/w & more than likely Native River e/w seeing as 4 places are about on Sky
Song For Someone e/w
Federici & Greensalt e/w, tempted by Latenightpass too think the drop back in trip may suit especially out from the front
On The Slopes & Sully D'oc e/w
Wheres Maud Gone e/w


Greensalt certainly seems one of the better 125/1 shots I've ever thought of backing with his course form!
 
I have backed Sully D'oc AA in the Red Rum tomorrow - still 16s about on 365 (4 places) - been a bit of a sea of blue for this one as was 25s so may continue to shorten.

I did actually back this in the Plate at the Festival where I thought he ran pretty creditably, just didn't see the 2m 4 trip out, and didn't help that got a bit squeezed coming round bend but wouldn't have won anyway.

The step back to 2m tomorrow will suit on this basis, and further, Honeyball came out and said does not want soft conditions, and so the drying conditions will aid his cause too.

Honeyball stats very favourable at Aintree too, he is 4 / 5 / 19 (21% win rate - 47% win&place rate) across all time periods. This current season he is 1 - 1 - 2 across all jumps, but specifically looking at chases, he is 1 from 1 this season which bodes well.

Only negative is McLernon's strike rate - he is 0 from 65 rides at Aintree...but as the old adage goes...got to start somewhere right?

Best of luck all.
 
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