Irish Grand National - Monday 5 April 2021

[jack1092]

Incredibly well handicapped on the form with Kettle but the distance has to be a massive issue ? Rachel's booking is very eye-catching though. I can see why there's money for her.

Youd think the distance will be the potential stumbling block! She's won up to 3 miles already though and havign had a Leinster National entry, i'm guessing WPM is happy to keep her to staying trips....3m5 will be interesting though lol

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

I've got sucked in with Latest Exhibition 7/1 with 6 places. Thought he'd be a fair bit shorter than that and struggling to see many negatives.

 

[archie]

Youd think the distance will be the potential stumbling block! She's won up to 3 miles already though and havign had a Leinster National entry, i'm guessing WPM is happy to keep her to staying trips....3m5 will be interesting though lol

Interestingly, none of the top 3 in the betting have won at 3 miles or further.

While the form with PTKO is eye-catching, she also has hurdles form with Agusta Gold that reads well. The long absence is clearly a worry. She's never shown much on the gallops so we can't be sure that she will be fit enough. The other concern is purely a personal one that, being on the small size, she's likely to jump better at courses that have easier fences than Fairyhouse.

 

[jack1092]

Interestingly, none of the top 3 in the betting have won at 3 miles or further.

While the form with PTKO is eye-catching, she also has hurdles form with Agusta Gold that reads well. The long absence is clearly a worry. She's never shown much on the gallops so we can't be sure that she will be fit enough. The other concern is purely a personal one that, being on the small size, she's likely to jump better at courses that have easier fences than Fairyhouse.

Yep Archie valid concerns! Frank Hickey the PP trader who priced the race up was very against her on the podcast.......funny how they opened a big price and are now 12s....


Worth a go at the price anyway regardless. I'm adding Off You Go, his Leopardstown win has worked out very well and his dam is closely related to Shutthefrontdoor an Irish National winner himself! He finished his last race very strongly + Minella Times is fancied for the English National.

 

[Lobos]

Just been given a crazy stat for the Irish National. The last 10 winners have all had different trainers. Taking that into account and the fact that most of those winners have carried around 10-06, whilst I won't be betting on the race myself, Opposites Attract meets both those stats at a huge price. In his first chase race he was 3rd behind Latest Exhibition at levels beaten just 2 1/2 lengths and he's fully 18lbs better off Monday. He's also beaten The Big Getaway this season.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Just been given a crazy stat for the Irish National. The last 10 winners have all had different trainers. Taking that into account and the fact that most of those winners have carried around 10-06, whilst I won't be betting on the race myself, Opposites Attract meets both those stats at a huge price. In his first chase race he was 3rd behind Latest Exhibition at levels beaten just 2 1/2 lengths and he's fully 18lbs better off Monday. He's also beaten The Big Getaway this season.

Interesting, although it's an odd year with everything being in the handicap proper, isn't 10:6lb the bottom weight this year ?
Nonetheless throwing darts at 33/50s shots in this hasn't been a bad strategy...

 

[YoungHustler]

Opposites Attract my dart here.

Disappointed in December when a well beaten 4th behind Longhouse Poet, RWF and the Big Dog having gone off favourite.

Finished ahead of the former two and 2.5L behind Latest Exhibition off level weights last October. Hoping there's more to come from him.

Main bet for me is Latest Exhibition but I agree with you on Opposites Attract and he is my other dart at much bigger odds. I'm hoping the better ground will suit and if he can just jump a little better I think he will run a big race.

 

[Lobos]

Main bet for me is Latest Exhibition but I agree with you on Opposites Attract and he is my other dart at much bigger odds. I'm hoping the better ground will suit and if he can just jump a little better I think he will run a big race.

Based on that first run of the season he'd be mile's clear of Latest Exhibition. If only it was that easy eh ??

 

[archie]

As you'd expect, the long priced winners tend to be when the going is soft. When it's good or good to yielding it's a different story.

 

[Lobos]

As you'd expect, the long priced winners tend to be when the going is soft. When it's good or good to yielding it's a different story.

Also get a lot of strange results at the end of every season. The smaller yards need the odd win to carry them through to the following year and time and time again the results go for them. Share and share alike. One big family.

 

[Craigy14]

Run Wild Fred, The Big Dog and Robin De Carlow for me.

The first 2 have obvious claims imo and RDC with Rachael on, is interesting, but as Archie says fitness may be against her. Was worth a poke at the price.

 

[The King Pimm]

I find this race like many big Irish Chase handicaps a mind field but I’ll be backing all the novice horses who bypassed Cheltenham which looks like the top 3 in the betting

 

[Lobos]

Run Wild Fred, The Big Dog and Robin De Carlow for me.

The first 2 have obvious claims imo and RDC with Rachael on, is interesting, but as Archie says fitness may be against her. Was worth a poke at the price.

Cant imagine a Mullins horse will want for fitness regardless of the amount of time out. The distance is the only negative from where I'm sitting.

 

[Lobos]

If anyone is backing Latest Exhibition in this then you surely have to have a saver on Opposites Attract. Has the beating of the fav based on his first Novice Chase run this season. The disparity in odds is silly.

 

[FinalFurlong91]

He also has 26 lengths to find with run wild fred and the big dog on a more recent run lobos

Opposites attract would need to run a huge personal best to get involved

Its very possible but the odds look about right to me given how deep the race is

 

[Eggs]

...Mullins talks about his entries:

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/asterion-has-plenty-in-his-favour/190618

 

[Craigy14]

Cant imagine a Mullins horse will want for fitness regardless of the amount of time out. The distance is the only negative from where I'm sitting.

Very true.

If it was an issue you would have to wonder why running her over this sort of trip first time out was the plan.

I think he’s quietly confident given the low weight too.

archie best of luck :encouragement:

 

[Craigy14]

He also has 26 lengths to find with run wild fred and the big dog on a more recent run lobos

Opposites attract would need to run a huge personal best to get involved

Its very possible but the odds look about right to me given how deep the race is

Agree with this FF91, he was beaten miles by both so would have to be some turnaround on form.

Given he’s only getting 5lbs from Run Wild Fred imo he has no chance of reversing the form.

 

[Middle_Of_March]

Good luck archie with RDC

Five for me in the race (suckered in with the extra places). All each way (6/7 places):
- Latest Exhibition 5/1
- Run Wild Fred 10/1
- Escaria Ten 16/1
- Scoir Mear 40/1
- Mortal 150/1


Good luck all

 

[Deleted member 4957]

I’ve had a few quid on Run Wild Fred like many but, and I’m not sure if he’s been mentioned in this thread, my main play is Fitzhenry.
Well fancied for last season Kim Muir he looks to have been trained this year for a big late season National and is now 5lb lower.
Ran well in the Leinster National when making a mistake 2 out but stayed on well after, at 28/1 he looks the forgotten horse...