Stupid Questions

[Can't Catch Me]

Whose he rated 11 pounds superior by? Can't see how you can rate AI 11 pounds superior on form when none of the form lines have mixed.

If someone wanted to make an argument Metier was better with facts, it wouldn't be difficult to make.

Go on then DS! Be genuinely interested to hear how you can do it 'factually'....

 

[Supermaster]

Whose he rated 11 pounds superior by? Can't see how you can rate AI 11 pounds superior on form when none of the form lines have mixed.

If someone wanted to make an argument Metier was better with facts, it wouldn't be difficult to make.

This is what I was thinking. How can you know that Appreciate it has beaten better horses than Metier given there have been so few races of GB v Irish novices until the Festival? Also given each has been winning easily what is the ceiling to how good they are?

I think the main reason to prefer AI is the undoubted Mullins factor. 5 previous wins in the race can't be knocked.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

This is what I was thinking. How can you know that Appreciate it has beaten better horses than Metier given there have been so few races of GB v Irish novices until the Festival? Also given each has been winning easily what is the ceiling to how good they are?

I think the main reason to prefer AI is the undoubted Mullins factor. 5 previous wins in the race can't be knocked.

I would be very, very confident AI has beaten better horses... has Metier beaten a single half decent animal? Shakem'up arry is probably the best horse Metier has beaten. What price would he be if he lined up in the Supreme?

Obviously he cant do any more than win easily, but there is absolutely no substance to his form whatsoever.

 

[Altior]

It's funny, I'd argue the form Appreciate It has going into this race would rival any novice hurdler of the last decade.

 

[ToniC]

It's funny, I'd argue the form Appreciate It has going into this race would rival any novice hurdler of the last decade.

In terms of what he’s achieved vs his rivals definitely. How many of those lining up from Ireland hasn’t been beaten at least once already

probably not the strongest of renewals and anybody on at big prices would be mad not to cover metier but his form is really good

 

[Kevloaf]

Some wind up merchants on the prowl :highly_amused:

 

[Altior]

In terms of what he’s achieved vs his rivals definitely. How many of those lining up from Ireland hasn’t been beaten at least once already

probably not the strongest of renewals and anybody on at big prices would be mad not to cover metier but his form is really good

I think Metier is the lay of the meet potentially, I'll probably have a place lay on the day if the price stays like this.

 

[ToniC]

I think Metier is the lay of the meet potentially, I'll probably have a place lay on the day if the price stays like this.

I wouldn’t go that far & I will back him just because I’m in a good position with the two Irish fancies but yeah there’s absolutely no chance 5/1 would have any appeal if I was starting from scratch with the race. If he gets any shorter I might just lay appreciate it for some instead to cover my total outlay on the race depending what his price is on the morning

 

[Supermaster]

Sorry its 5lb isnt it. My apologies. Still, a decent enough difference to use as reason he's achieved more.

This provokes another question about ratings.
There was a very useful discussion about ratings early on in this thread but if ratings could be relied on 100% then couldn't the punters bankrupt all the bookmakers in a matter of days?
Has anyone ever worked out the profit/loss of betting according to the various ratings?

Which one(s) do you use? The highest ever achieved/highest this season/most recent completed race/RP estimate for the current race or other?

It was argued that First Flow couldn't win the Clarence House because he hadn't beaten much previously. First Flow didn't agree.

 

[Kevloaf]

This provokes another question about ratings.
There was a very useful discussion about ratings early on in this thread but if ratings could be relied on 100% then couldn't the punters bankrupt all the bookmakers in a matter of days?
Has anyone ever worked out the profit/loss of betting according to the various ratings?

Which one(s) do you use? The highest ever achieved/highest this season/most recent completed race/RP estimate for the current race or other?

It was argued that First Flow couldn't win the Clarence House because he hadn't beaten much previously. First Flow didn't agree.

The point was that the ratings reflect what horses have done, not what they will do.

Any horse can improve. Not seen anyone dispute that.

"if ratings could be relied on 100% then couldn't the punters bankrupt all the bookmakers in a matter of days?"
:distant: Right thread I suppose :highly_amused:


What people have disputed is that Metier has shown more so far. You don't have to believe that's fact, and you could be wrong now and Metier still end up a better horse.



Loaded questions IMO.


Appreciate It, on the main ratings people use (OR, RPR, TF) has achieved more than Metier so far. That doesn't mean Metier can't do better. It doesn't mean they're fact. No-one is saying that.

You would need your own ratings and try and justify why Metier has shown more than Appreciate It so far.... and nobody could disprove them either.


Using First Flow as an example is fine, but how many times has the horse with superior form beforehand won too.... nobody uses ratings literally and exclusively do they? ... it's just a tool? Maybe some people do... probably has it's own angles.

 

[Supermaster]

Thanks Kevloaf for the clarification. It's just that with so little connection between GB and Irish novice form (GB and Irish novices completing in the same races) I treat that comparison of ratings with a high degree of circumspection.

I agree that Appreciate It deserves to be favourite but you don't win so much with favourites.
Metier has been around the same price as Ballyadam but you're asking Ballyadam to turn round a clear defeat
Whereas with Metier you don't know how good he really is (as with AI). That uncertainty makes Metier better value than Ballyadam in my mind and so good value.

I used the same reasoning to pick Frodon in the King George. Frodon was around the same price as Real Steel - the two Nicholls outsiders. 12 wins in the race means you had to take all his runners seriously. Clan was a justified favourite having won it well in the last two years. But I couldn't see how you could compare Real Steel's form with Frodon's. Hence even if it was hard to compare Frodon's value to Clan's it was clear to me that Frodon was much better value than Real Steel.

 

[Kevloaf]

Thanks Kevloaf for the clarification. It's just that with so little connection between GB and Irish novice form (GB and Irish novices completing in the same races) I treat the comparison of ratings with a high degree of circumspection.

Are you surprised the market has Appreciate It where he is?

How do you feel Metier would have got on in the races Appreciate It had been in.... or perhaps more interestingly, where do you think Ballyadam would have been in the Tolworth if Metier hadn't run?




It's certainly assumed the Irish are better at the top end... and there could be value as it's not proven they're ahead.


The only formlines we really have are with the juveniles given Gordon had horses come over and win...or the stayting division, where outsider in the Albert Bartlett Streets Of Doyen won at Cheltenham.


I'm willing to take it as a bit of a given the Irish are once again a better crop, and if I'm wrong I'll take it on the chin.


I don't think Metier presents value for the 'if the British are better' side of the claim.... he's single figures and still has questions to answer.

I actually think Metier might well drift, and Ballyadam is a more likely 2nd fav on the day, so Metier could be a play on the morning.


A guess though, obviously.

 

[Supermaster]

Are you surprised the market has Appreciate It where he is?

How do you feel Metier would have got on in the races Appreciate It had been in.... or perhaps more interestingly, where do you think Ballyadam would have been in the Tolworth if Metier hadn't run?

My answer to the first question is no: AI is a worthy favourite. As I've already written we can't put a ceiling on either AI or Metier's form so it's hard to know their relative merits. My preference for the latter is based on the fact he's a higher price. Looking back at an old Road To Cheltenham Lydia Hislop opined that Ballyadam looked "flat" in the December race and he was much closer to AI in the Feb race but still beaten. And you're right that the Irish have done better over the years in this race filling the minor placings as well.

But for me the real question is the comparison of the two unbeaten this season horses - and there's enough uncertainty to make Metier better value
If they were the same price I would plump for Appreciate It.

 

[Supermaster]

Now for a genuinely stupid question.

Would you want canned crowd noise to be added to the TV coverage as there won't be the traditional roar at the start of the first race?

My answer is no! I found the canned "bread of heaven" in the Wales v England RU match just weird.

Also what will be your comfort food and drink. I've got a few bottles of cider and bags of crisps in.

 

[PresentingPercy]

Now for a genuinely stupid question.

Would you want canned crowd noise to be added to the TV coverage as there won't be the traditional roar at the start of the first race?

My answer is no! I found the canned "bread of heaven" in the Wales v England RU match just weird.

Also what will be your comfort food and drink. I've got a few bottles of cider and bags of crisps in.

We already get fake sounds of galloping and jumping of hurdles and fence noises via ITV, why not throw in the fake roar for good measure?!

I have the Mrs making me some roast pork for the week ahead along with apple sauce, so I can replicate the pork rolls that can be got near the parade ring on race day, minus the 20 deep queues :highly_amused:

 

[Attaglance]

Not sure how I feel about playing crowd noise, I watch the football with the crowd noise on though.

Kevloaf As for the snacks I have sent the wife out to get a couple of large chocolate trifles for the week.. & plenty of cider chilling in the fridge... Can’t wait now, buzzing for the week. :triumphant:

 

[Kevloaf]

I'm having a practice run this weekend to test of combinations of beers and snacks.

Don't want to get it wrong next week so putting the work in now.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

I'm having a practice run this weekend to test of combinations of beers and snacks.

Don't want to get it wrong next week so putting the work in now.

Darn good idea....well the beers part anyway!!

 

[Atlantic Viking]

I'm planning on going full steamboat on the Tuesday with a solid selection of lagers and real ales. Under strict instructions from myself not to engage with red wine. For the Wednesday i'll go a bit steadier with a bottle of pimms I found in the cupboard that i'd completely forgotten about. After i've done that i'll probably get on the red wine from the same cupboard that I tried to pretend i'd forgotten about.
Thursday i'll play by ear, depends on how it's going and how nervous I am about the Envoi race. Probably back on the boat full steam ahead either way, almost certainly chain eating packets of gaviscon.
Friday I just plan on being a degenerate mess sat in my pants eating chocolate trifle and trying to work out where it all went wrong.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

I’ve been dry since Boxing Day so I’m definitely in need of the run, every chance I set off too quick and end up treading water at the business end of proceedings.
And if I go OK Tue, every chance I bounce Wed...