Stupid Questions

[Bert]

Dead, just totally dead...

Would that be the case even on NRNB?

 

[Ribocco]

Would that be the case even on NRNB?

No it would then be a single

 

[Magpie]

If both legs nrnb, stake will go on as a single if one horse does not race I believe

 

[Big Bucks]

Does 1 leg of an antepost double being voided (Thyme HIll for example) mean the whole bet is lost, or that the bet goes on the remaining single? Just curious because when it's happened with other sites I seem to have lost the bet, but even though they've marked the Thyme Hill leg as void on my bet, Betfair will let me cash out half the stake.

Usually bet would be beat. Bit pp/bf are being pretty decent about it and voiding bets on Thyme Hill. (Think Energumene as well)

 

[Atlantic Viking]

Usually bet would be beat. Bit pp/bf are being pretty decent about it and voiding bets on Thyme Hill. (Think Energumene as well)

Yeah that's what i'm hoping after hearing about the PP refunds. Cheers (and to dannycraig).

 

[Supermaster]

Now we're getting to the 6 day declaration stage for the Festival it's becoming clearer what runs where - but not totally clear!

For instance Bob Olinger is still in the Supreme at 6/1 and the Ballymore at 9/4. His form profile suggests he is suited by the longer trip so can we take it he will run in the Ballymore and not the Supreme from the SPs?

How much does it cost to leave a horse in at this stage and not run it? I assume it's more expensive for the more valuable races. Is that right?

Given all that why do the connections leave their horses in two races when their preferred race is the last one? I can understand it if your preferred race is the first one then, if it falls early but is unscathed, then it can run in the later race - but not vice versa.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Now we're getting to the 6 day declaration stage for the Festival it's becoming clearer what runs where - but not totally clear!

For instance Bob Olinger is still in the Supreme at 6/1 and the Ballymore at 9/4. His form profile suggests he is suited by the longer trip so can we take it he will run in the Ballymore and not the Supreme from the SPs?

How much does it cost to leave a horse in at this stage and not run it? I assume it's more expensive for the more valuable races. Is that right?

Given all that why do the connections leave their horses in two races when their preferred race is the last one? I can understand it if your preferred race is the first one then, if it falls early but is unscathed, then it can run in the later race - but not vice versa.

Good question.

archie will know better than most but I'm fairly sure you're right. The closer you get, the bigger the entry fee.

​​​​​​

 

[Deleted member 4957]

How much does it cost to leave a horse in at this stage and not run it? I assume it's more expensive for the more valuable races. Is that right?
.

I'm sure I read recently the Arkle entry fees were about ?450 at first stage and ?300 at six day confirmations.
I'll see if I can locate where I saw it...

 

[Quevega]

Now we're getting to the 6 day declaration stage for the Festival it's becoming clearer what runs where - but not totally clear!

For instance Bob Olinger is still in the Supreme at 6/1 and the Ballymore at 9/4. His form profile suggests he is suited by the longer trip so can we take it he will run in the Ballymore and not the Supreme from the SPs?

How much does it cost to leave a horse in at this stage and not run it? I assume it's more expensive for the more valuable races. Is that right?

Given all that why do the connections leave their horses in two races when their preferred race is the last one? I can understand it if your preferred race is the first one then, if it falls early but is unscathed, then it can run in the later race - but not vice versa.

You can't run in 2 races anymore so the fall early thing is not relevant these days.
Connections will leave runners entered for various reasons.

Some reasons.

Weather issues meaning ground changes.

Opposition changing
(good example of that today is the likelihood of Roksana now going stayers, they mentioned ground initially being a driver but it later transpired they were looking at the competitors)

Then the extreme chance of a very small injury that may take just a day to clear up (Chacun was left in the ryanair roday, and last year had the stone bruise not happened the morning of the race and on the morning of declarations for the champion chase, then he may well have ran in the ryanair).

They can also sometimes be waiting on jockey availability, as they may see that as more important than the race or trip.


I personally think in this case (Bob Olinger) it is simply weighing up the opposition.
If the supreme became a significantly weaker race then they would at least have the option.

 

[Quevega]

And for most class horses the difference in trip for the 2 novice hurdle races is minimal. IMO

 

[Supermaster]

You can't run in 2 races anymore so the fall early thing is not relevant these days.
Connections will leave runners entered for various reasons.

Some reasons.

Weather issues meaning ground changes.

Opposition changing
(good example of that today is the likelihood of Roksana now going stayers, they mentioned ground initially being a driver but it later transpired they were looking at the competitors)

Then the extreme chance of a very small injury that may take just a day to clear up (Chacun was left in the ryanair roday, and last year had the stone bruise not happened the morning of the race and on the morning of declarations for the champion chase, then he may well have ran in the ryanair).

They can also sometimes be waiting on jockey availability, as they may see that as more important than the race or trip.


I personally think in this case (Bob Olinger) it is simply weighing up the opposition.
If the supreme became a significantly weaker race then they would at least have the option.

Ok thanks for this but it prompts another question if you don't mind.

At each declaration stage am I right to think the connections of any horse don't know who else will be withdrawn until after the stage is passed?
Are there any other stages now until the overnight declarations?

 

[Quevega]

Ok thanks for this but it prompts another question if you don't mind.

At each declaration stage am I right to think the connections of any horse don't know who else will be withdrawn until after the stage is passed?
Are there any other stages now until the overnight declarations?

Strictly speaking yes - they don't know.
So it's a waiting game to hear news from other stables.
I assume though that many phone calls are made, especially between stables that are on friendly terms.

This week was the last entry stage (6 days) , and next stage is actual declarations - 48hrs.

 

[Supermaster]

Another question!

In a race like the Supreme where many of the good Irish horses are held by Appreciate It, if you're looking for a horse to beat him do you go for one of those horses who have been behind AI but have run well in those better class races - or do you go for a horse that has been winning well in lesser races?

 

[Quevega]

Another question!

In a race like the Supreme where many of the good Irish horse are held by Appreciate It, if you're looking for a horse to beat him do you go for one of those horses who have been behind AI but have run well in those better class races - or do you go for a horse that has been winning well in lesser races?

If I was to bet against Appreciate It.

I'd side with Metier.

The Irish have all been beaten and you're hoping the change of track conditions and other factors will mean a turn up, which is not out of the question.

But Metier is effectively unexposed, and his flat pedigree means he should have good pace on better ground, which makes his Tolworth performance against admittedly poor opposition all the more impressive IMO. He has also won races from the front and has been held up.

 

[Diamond Geezer]

As Archie pointed out yesterday it's a six day confirmation, not an entry as such, and there is a charge for the confirmation. At the 48 hour stage you can only declare for one race and you cannot enter another race unless you are been balloted out of the race you originally declared for at the 48 hour stage.

 

[Supermaster]

If I was to bet against Appreciate It.

I'd side with Metier.

The Irish have all been beaten and you're hoping the change of track conditions and other factors will mean a turn up, which is not out of the question.

But Metier is effectively unexposed, and his flat pedigree means he should have good pace on better ground, which makes his Tolworth performance against admittedly poor opposition all the more impressive IMO. He has also won races from the front and has been held up.

I agree Quevega. Apart from the important Mullins factor there seems no reason to think Appreciate It is that much better than Metier

 

[Can't Catch Me]

I agree Quevega. Apart from the important Mullins factor there seems no reason to think Appreciate It is that much better than Metier

No reason?! Apart from the small reason he is rated 11lbs superior on all known form.

Metier might prove to be better than Appreciate It. But there is nothing substantive to base it on right now.

 

[Quevega]

No reason?! Apart from the small reason he is rated 11lbs superior on all known form.

Metier might prove to be better than Appreciate It. But there is nothing substantive to base it on right now.

I agree
I wouldn’t go so far as supermaster suggests.
not 11lb though is it ?

 

[DenmanSacre]

No reason?! Apart from the small reason he is rated 11lbs superior on all known form.

Metier might prove to be better than Appreciate It. But there is nothing substantive to base it on right now.

Whose he rated 11 pounds superior by? Can't see how you can rate AI 11 pounds superior on form when none of the form lines have mixed.

If someone wanted to make an argument Metier was better with facts, it wouldn't be difficult to make.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

Sorry its 5lb isnt it. My apologies. Still, a decent enough difference to use as reason he's achieved more.