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2016 Supreme Novices

Kim Bailey is edging towards running Musselburgh winner Charbel in the Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.

Bailey still has the option of stepping the five-year-old up in trip for the Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle, but has a preference for the two-mile Festival curtain-raiser on March 15.

An easy winner of a Supreme trial at the East Lothian circuit at the weekend, Charbel finished second behind hot Neptune favourite Yanworth on his penultimate start at Ascot in December.

"We expected him to win at Musselburgh and his run at Ascot was self-explanatory," said Bailey.

"We were with Yanworth until the last, and before that he should have won at Doncaster when he was second.

"We were really pleased at Musselburgh as he really wants better ground than that.

"He's entered in both races at Cheltenham - there's also the option of a handicap, too - but I'd say the two-mile novice hurdle is the one, I think."

Charbel won two bumpers last season for Tom Mullins before finishing fourth in Grade One company at Punchestown behind Bellshill.
 
Nico

He’s got a similar programme to my Supreme contender Altior in that he is being kept fresh for Cheltenham.

Everything has gone to plan so far with Sprinter. If we get him in the same condition as we did for the seasonal reappearance, we could give Un De Sceaux some race in the Champion Chase.

Talking of Altior, we are yet to decide whether we will give him a racecourse gallop or send him out for a run before the Festival. He is very, very fresh at the minute.

If we get him to Cheltenham in great condition, he has a solid chance in the Supreme on good ground.

On his Kempton performance, he could be underestimated with all the hype around Min. Altior has learned to settle much better in his races now and seems progressive.
 
Winter Escape unlikely to go

"I doubt he'll go to Cheltenham. We'll have to step him up in class and get another run into him. He may have another run and then maybe go to Aintree.

"He's only had two races in his life. He has plenty to learn, but he's potentially very exciting."
 
Davy Russell's Blog

Tombstone

It may just be that Tombstone was beaten by a very good horse in the shape of Bleu Et Rouge in the Deloitte Hurdle last weekend.

Hindsight is a great thing, but when you look back at the race at Christmas when he finished behind Long Dog, he was just as unlucky as Tombstone in-running.

All that said, I haven’t lost faith in Tombstone and the better ground and fast pace of a Supreme Novices’ looks ideal. He’s only got some horse called Min to beat!
 
Massively disappointed in Modus yesterday.

Cant see him showing up here now at all. Martin Pipe Coral or County must be way more likely.
 
mayo said:
Massively disappointed in Modus yesterday.

Cant see him showing up here now at all. Martin Pipe Coral or County must be way more likely.
Click to expand...

On the face of it you're right mayo, but you need to watch 22 re-runs of the race a track every horse.
I've just watched Modus and think he got unsettled by the scrimmaging approaching the first where he didn't look like settled and immediately found himself 15l off the pace and with 18 horses in front of him, he was hampered by the fall of Dicosimo, he made some good ground rounding the turn heading into the straight where he ran into the back of the weakening Sternrubin who was being pulled up, when he then saw daylight he didn't pick up and Schofield wasn't too hard on him from 2 out.
I wouldn't give up on him just yet, it could be he needs better ground or more likely the hustle of a big field over 2m it all happens a little too quick for him, if he's dropped a few lb and gets in the Coral Cup with a low weight on quicker ground he could be a player....
 
Istabraq said:
On the face of it you're right mayo, but you need to watch 22 re-runs of the race a track every horse.
I've just watched Modus and think he got unsettled by the scrimmaging approaching the first where he didn't look like settled and immediately found himself 15l off the pace and with 18 horses in front of him, he was hampered by the fall of Dicosimo, he made some good ground rounding the turn heading into the straight where he ran into the back of the weakening Sternrubin who was being pulled up, when he then saw daylight he didn't pick up and Schofield wasn't too hard on him from 2 out.
I wouldn't give up on him just yet, it could be he needs better ground or more likely the hustle of a big field over 2m it all happens a little too quick for him, if he's dropped a few lb and gets in the Coral Cup with a low weight on quicker ground he could be a player....
Click to expand...

I think he could potentially be very very good but just cant see him running in the Supreme. He is in most of my L15/L31 either with and without Min.

Was rated 139 and might get dropped a bit.Martin Pipe was 135-144 last year. Coral Cup 138-155. County 134-146.

I think the trend is that bottom rating has been rising in the handicaps so will be close to bottom weight in any of those - if he gets in.
 
anyone know if the following are intended runners here ?

Penglai Pavilion
Its a freebee
Supasundae
Tycoon Prince
 
mayo said:
anyone know if the following are intended runners here ?

Penglai Pavilion
Its a freebee
Supasundae
Tycoon Prince
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Mayo, I am pretty sure Supasundae will be heading here, read a quote somewhere from the trainer last month.
 
mayo said:
I think he could potentially be very very good but just cant see him running in the Supreme. He is in most of my L15/L31 either with and without Min.

Was rated 139 and might get dropped a bit.Martin Pipe was 135-144 last year. Coral Cup 138-155. County 134-146.

I think the trend is that bottom rating has been rising in the handicaps so will be close to bottom weight in any of those - if he gets in.
Click to expand...

Yep, true, it's becoming harder for trainers to conceal a horses abilities these days as they run the risk of not getting in, that bottom weight has slowly been climbing over the years, long gone are the days when handicaps had fewer than the max field and the bottom few were 'wrong' at the weights....
 
Gordon Elliott leaning towards the Supreme with Tombstone.
 
Is Yorkhill being over looked still at 16s in places ? Wylie says one if Yorkhill & Bellshill will go for this and the other to the Neptune so likely it will be Yorkhill in this. Form of the Tolworth working out well with Agrapart on Saturday. Obviously considered inferior to Min by the stable but better form in the book than many shorter in the betting and wouldn't be the first time this season the 'lesser' Mullins horse has surprised !
 
All the betting in recent weeks though has indicated Yorkhill for Neptune and in some places Bellshill maybe now for Albert Bartlett. I'd backed Bellshill antepost for the Neptune but read he scoped badly so hoping they stick with him for Neptune.
 
Ballybeen said:
All the betting in recent weeks though has indicated Yorkhill for Neptune and in some places Bellshill maybe now for Albert Bartlett. I'd backed Bellshill antepost for the Neptune but read he scoped badly so hoping they stick with him for Neptune.
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I have backed Mullins to win the 3 novice hurdles so hope they go that way with them. Splitting them that way got to be his best chance of winning those two races


:o or another punter talking through his pocket :D
 
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Donn

Silver Concorde (Dermot Weld)

Silver Concorde has yet to win over hurdles, but he will be an interesting outsider in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle if he takes his chance in the race.

There is no doubting Dermot Weld's horse's talent. He won the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham in 2014, when he had Shaneshill, Black Hercules, Killultagh Vic, Definitly Red and Modus behind him, thereby proving his ability to act at Cheltenham and under Cheltenham Festival conditions.

Winner of a maiden on the flat at Navan in October 2014, he was beaten at long odds-on by Blair Perrone in a maiden hurdle at Leopardstown's Christmas Festival on unsuitably heavy ground that season, but he didn't run badly behind Nichols Canyon and his better-fancied stable companion Windsor Park in the Grade 1 Deloitte Hurdle back at Leopardstown last February.

He didn't make it to Cheltenham last year, but he improved on the flat last summer, winning two of his three races, the latter the competitive November Handicap at Leopardstown off a mark of 91. Now rated 97 on the flat, he is a potentially high-class hurdler.

He was run just once over hurdles this season, he finished second behind Supasundae in the Leopardstown maiden hurdle in which Blair Perrone beat him 12 months previously. Again, that was on unsuitably heavy ground. His record on ground that is soft or better reads 3211214171, and he should be a different horse when he gets back on the better spring ground.
 
I hope The Donn is right. I really fancy SC. He's in a few antepost bets of mine.
 
Phew. Confirmed by WPM that Min is fine - exchange now settling. I can't take this much more..
 
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