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Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

Kevloaf said:
Not impressed with Andy Dufresne - not on him at all and no interest in adding him. :single_eye:
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Looked to be doing his best work at the end there, reckon a step up in trip may see him in better light. Gordon to have the 1-2 in the Marsh.

That said, Conflated winning boosted the Asterion Forlonge form.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Looked to be doing his best work at the end there, reckon a step up in trip may see him in better light. Gordon to have the 1-2 in the Marsh.

That said, Conflated winning boosted the Asterion Forlonge form.
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Then digging a bit deeper makes Envoi look even better with form!
 
Could be couldn't it. Gordon seems adamant that Andy D wants 2m4f but whether or not he even goes to the cheltenham festival or waits for later remains to be seen. But it could be the case that one takes in the marsh and the other the RSA.

I seem to remember that Hendo did jock up Fusil Raffles in both the 2m and 2m3f nov chases before the novemebr meet... So perhaps its just how he does things and Chantry could be jocked up for both the 3m and 2m4f races on friday and saturday.

One to monitor...
 
With the heads of the Arkle and Marsh markets being so short and pretty much unbackable (IMO) at such short odds so far out do you think the next step is to look at each way plays in both races?

Felix Desjy obviously looks a decent horse and 16/1 seems a decent price for him.

Was looking at the Marsh market and it seems to be full of horses who seem unlikely to run, what do you guys think of Easywork at 25/1?

Won over 2m1f against the horse that Andy Dufresne beat into 2nd today on his only chase start and holds entries for a 2m3f grade 1 and a 3m grade 1 at the end of December.
 
I like the way you think, FF. I've been chipping away at him TWAR and RSA for a while. Bar, EA, Easywork has the highest OR of all the staying novice hurdlers going chasing this season. I thought his first outing over 2m was perfectly respectable. Most of all, he seemed to settle much better. Looking forward to his next outing. He's entered up in both the 2m3f and 3m graded novice chases over Xmas.
 
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I've just recalled the Tizzard comment on Eldorado Allen after he won at Cheltenham, when Gumball fell when leading.

Eldorado Allen is the best 2M Chaser we have had.


:glee::welcoming::jaded::confusion:
 
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Any comments from Mullins/Connections after The Big Getaway today? I thought there had to be something amiss with his two false steps early after the first.
 
Guinness Village said:
I like the way you think, FF. I've been chipping away at him TWAR and RSA for a while. Bar, EA, Easywork has the highest OR of all the staying novice hurdlers going chasing this season. I thought his first outing over 2m was perfectly respectable. Most of all, he seemed to settle much better. Looking forward to his next outing. He's entered up in both the 2m3f and 3m graded novice chases over Xmas.
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I thought at the time that the Ballymore was the weakest of the three novice races. Easywork has got his rating through Envoi Allen who wasn't given the best of rides on the day. Only Shan Blue has done much to uphold the form. Easywork was no better than a Grade 2 hurdler so I would have big doubts about that rating. I would have had Monkfish at least 7lbs pounds ahead of him. Thyme Hill is now 160 so I don't think it is stretching the imagination that Monkfish should have been in the mid 150's with Easywork somewhere in the 140's.
 
Interesting that Chantry House is entered over 3m1f at Cheltenham on Friday and is a sea of blue for the RSA on oddschecker. Available at 20's and as short at 12's.

Has something been said that I've missed to cause this? Delighted to have nabbed 40's pre debut as entries and market indications would suggest RSA is on the cards + we've discussed on here horses avoiding EA, and he could be one of them.

I thought he was fine on his debut. As I said on the supreme thread, I think we've generally (myself included) slipped into expecting too much from horses on debut.

I'd love to see him stay the 3m and win well at Cheltenham on Friday.

Someone on twitter mentioned that CH was in the process of giving Monkfish a beating when unseating 3 out in his P2P. I haven't seen the race so cannot verify, but interesting nonetheless
 
charlie said:
Interesting that Chantry House is entered over 3m1f at Cheltenham on Friday and is a sea of blue for the RSA on oddschecker. Available at 20's and as short at 12's.

Has something been said that I've missed to cause this? Delighted to have nabbed 40's pre debut as entries and market indications would suggest RSA is on the cards + we've discussed on here horses avoiding EA, and he could be one of them.

I thought he was fine on his debut. As I said on the supreme thread, I think we've generally (myself included) slipped into expecting too much from horses on debut.

I'd love to see him stay the 3m and win well at Cheltenham on Friday.

Someone on twitter mentioned that CH was in the process of giving Monkfish a beating when unseating 3 out in his P2P. I haven't seen the race so cannot verify, but interesting nonetheless
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I've noted this on here more than a couple of times. I wouldn't have said he was about to hand Monkfish a beating but he was ahead at the time of unseating, though Monkfish looked to finish the race well.

It was something I picked up on early so managed to get some 65's and 60's on the exchanges for Chantry House in the RSA. Tried getting bigger but couldn't get matched.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
I've noted this on here more than a couple of times. I wouldn't have said he was about to hand Monkfish a beating but he was ahead at the time of unseating, though Monkfish looked to finish the race well.

It was something I picked up on early so managed to get some 65's and 60's on the exchanges for Chantry House in the RSA. Tried getting bigger but couldn't get matched.
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Yeh I haven't seen it, just repeating what someone said on twitter which is obviously incredibly reliable for accuracy! :playful:

And there was me happy with 40's. Tip my hat to you sir.
 
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The point that Monkfish won was more than two and a half years ago. Personally, I wouldn't read too much into it. Chantry House was two lengths up when making a complete horlicks of the third last. Monkfish looked very raw in winning by less than a length from a horse who has since shown next to nothing. Of course the next three home have turned out to be above average.

I think Chantry House is going up in trip because Henderson knows what he did at the shorter trip wins nothing. For me he is clutching at straws.
 
Given how enormous monkfish is surely he was a shell of a horse at that age
 
kinloch brae said:
The point that Monkfish won was more than two and a half years ago. Personally, I wouldn't read too much into it. Chantry House was two lengths up when making a complete horlicks of the third last. Monkfish looked very raw in winning by less than a length from a horse who has since shown next to nothing. Of course the next three home have turned out to be above average.

I think Chantry House is going up in trip because Henderson knows what he did at the shorter trip wins nothing. For me he is clutching at straws.
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He’s raced once over fences and won easily so ‘clutching at straws’ seems premature. The P2P comment was just a brief observation, nothing more.
 
Apologies, haven't had a chance to catch up with the thread so may have already been cover. just caught up with the weekend racing last night:

The Big Breakaway vs The Big Getaway

Both ran at the weekend - both odds on - both beaten. The former cut to 12/1 for the RSA & 16/1 for the NHC. The latter pushed to 33/1 RSA & 20/1 NHC.

To me TBB looked far more novicey & distracted during his race, made mistakes and was beaten by a horse that is unlikely to be involved in any race at the festival.

TBG looks as though he jumped reasonably but obviously faded fast late on and was beaten by two horses with chase experience/race fitness. He was also beaten at odds on on his hurdle debut so no doubt he will improve as the season progresses. he was clear of TBB in the Ballymore and I can't see that this would be reversed next year. The yard has said he is an out and out stayer so presumably the trip was also short of his optimum.

I would far rather back a horse for the festival thinking Willie Mullins can improve him than Colin Tizzard. Undoubtedly they would both need to improve to feature but personally I don't get the price difference. Strongly felt TBG would be a major player in the RSA so will go in again at the current odds and cover for the NHC.

Has anyone any info on the reason for him fading so fast? Presumably just race fitness?
 
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