Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[Saxon Warrior]

Someone (think Saxon Warrior) mentioned that the 2m race at the weekend is the only decent novice chase in Ireland before Xmas (or something along those lines) - therefore don't be surprised if a few anomalies who up in the entries

Yep,

There is only saturdays Grade 3 2M1F Klairon David Novice Chase race for Irish Novice Chasers that are rated above 140 (chase or hurdles) and have won a race/beginners chase.

Its got nothing to do with where Easywork is going to end up, that he is entered on Saturday, its the only Novice Chase that he can run in between 29th November and 26th December.

The same applies to any other entries in that race (there are no options for them other than this 2M1F race)

Gordon has almost all the key entries and it will cut up, Willie has no entries!

 

[TigerRolllllll]

According to FFP listened to earlier.....Willie has mentioned Ontheropes as a potential for 4m

Assume CP be keen to see it run at festival, so might be one to look at (33s everywhere)

 

[Eggs]

According to FFP listened to earlier.....Willie has mentioned Ontheropes as a potential for 4m

Assume CP be keen to see it run at festival, so might be one to look at (33s everywhere)

....interesting, I mentioned it this morning on here & took 33-1 NHC. I thought it went under the radar a little behind Monkfish.

 

[Craigy14]

Captain Guinness has a chase entry Sunday at Punchestown.

Hopefully no ill effects from his fall and see what he can do.

 

[TigerRolllllll]

....interesting, I mentioned it this morning on here & took 33-1 NHC. I thought it went under the radar a little behind Monkfish.

Backed too.....and agree was decent run....let’s hope

 

[jono]

Mullins mentioned the '4miler' for ontheropes before he ran at the weekend in his preview of the race:

https://www.fatjockey.com/forum/fat...-chase-novice-chases-2021?p=252951#post252951

 

[Middle_Of_March]

Have been thinking about what Monkfish winning the other day so impressively means for me.. and asides from it obviously being good the his RSA chances, it’s brilliant news for my Five O’Clock NH Chase bets.

With Mullins and Ricci having Monkfish for the RSA, there’s no realistically likelihood that FOC would take him on. Which is perfect. As it means the perfect race for the horse, the 4-miler will surely become the target. Patrick to get the ride and fight it out with Galvin up the run in for the perfect scenario.

 

[ToniC]

Have been thinking about what Monkfish winning the other day so impressively means for me.. and asides from it obviously being good the his RSA chances, it’s brilliant news for my Five O’Clock NH Chase bets.

With Mullins and Ricci having Monkfish for the RSA, there’s no realistically likelihood that FOC would take him on. Which is perfect. As it means the perfect race for the horse, the 4-miler will surely become the target. Patrick to get the ride and fight it out with Galvin up the run in for the perfect scenario.

Agree there and as a Five O’clock NHC backer this was part of my initial reasoning, I do just wish we had seen him out earlier though. Looks like he will be out this weekend now he has 2 entries, but that probably means a total of 3 runs going to the race. I know it’s how Willie operates but you wouldn’t have minded seeing home out 6 weeks or so earlier and get some free experience into him in a couple of softer races

 

[JackieMoon33]

Have been thinking about what Monkfish winning the other day so impressively means for me.. and asides from it obviously being good the his RSA chances, it’s brilliant news for my Five O’Clock NH Chase bets.

With Mullins and Ricci having Monkfish for the RSA, there’s no realistically likelihood that FOC would take him on. Which is perfect. As it means the perfect race for the horse, the 4-miler will surely become the target. Patrick to get the ride and fight it out with Galvin up the run in for the perfect scenario.

I think it hinges around what else Willie has for the four miler and what Patrick will ride. My personal opinion is FOC is going to be better than being relegated to the NHC and if you look at his entries, he’s being entered over shorter trips at present. They’re also leaving it late getting him to the track so he’s not going to go to the NHC with a ton of experience, which even Patrick admitted is the way forward. I also don’t think Ricci is as bothered about throwing two darts at a race as he used to be when Ruby was pulling the strings when he had his purple patch of horses.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

I'm holding off backing Five O'clock for the NHC until he's entered in a race in which he can qualify. They surely won't leave it until the last minute like they did with CS last season.

 

[JackieMoon33]

I'm holding off backing Five O'clock for the NHC until he's entered in a race in which he can qualify. They surely won't leave it until the last minute like they did with CS last season.

The thing with the NHC is that it pretty much revolves around jockey availability. We've had Aione (now injured), The Big Getaway, Five O'Clock, Lord Royal and Ontheropes mentioned for this race out of the Mullins yard but realistically, how many will he run even if Monkfish is such a good thing for the RSA? I'd say he's more likely to be mob handed in the RSA as it's the more prestigious race and there will be better jockeys available for his second, third, fourth and fifth string (pending fitness and being good enough of course).

 

[Middle_Of_March]

I'm holding off backing Five O'clock for the NHC until he's entered in a race in which he can qualify. They surely won't leave it until the last minute like they did with CS last season.

Half of my stake on him is any race but the other half NH Chase. I think he’s got a touch of class about him that would’ve meant he’s go RSA. It was only the Monkfish factor and Rich Ricci so often splitting his horses up that had me believing the NH Chase would be the way they’d go. And the price tempted me in. To the extent that he’s one of my biggest winners of the week at this stage perhaps bizarrely.

 

[JackieMoon33]

I'm holding off backing Five O'clock for the NHC until he's entered in a race in which he can qualify. They surely won't leave it until the last minute like they did with CS last season.

The only downside to this is that the price could have gone by that point. At present he has had no entries over 3m except his Grade 1 entry over Xmas (also has one over 2m3f too). His entries this weekend are over 2m and 2m4f so if he did take up one of those, he won't qualify for the NHC, but if he was impressive his price could contract. The only saving grace is that the cuts might happen to the shorter races rather than the NHC given the distances he's entered over.

 

[Leman14]

Half of my stake on him is any race but the other half NH Chase. I think he’s got a touch of class about him that would’ve meant he’s go RSA. It was only the Monkfish factor and Rich Ricci so often splitting his horses up that had me believing the NH Chase would be the way they’d go. And the price tempted me in. To the extent that he’s one of my biggest winners of the week at this stage perhaps bizarrely.

Hi MOM - this is a genuine question and not one to insight an argument :welcoming: and this isn't necessarily aimed at you specifically - your post just reminded me of a question...

If you have already backed the horse "Any Race" and have that security of getting a run for your money (if they make it to the Fez), is there a specific reason why you would then go back in on a specific race?
I've seen a few posters "split stakes" between a specific race and any race and I'm curious as to the reasoning.

Everyone's approach is different and I like to explore new strategies where possible.
In my case, once I have backed a horse "any race" and I am comfortable with my level of potential return, I can then "forget" about them until nearer the time.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Half of my stake on him is any race but the other half NH Chase. I think he’s got a touch of class about him that would’ve meant he’s go RSA. It was only the Monkfish factor and Rich Ricci so often splitting his horses up that had me believing the NH Chase would be the way they’d go. And the price tempted me in. To the extent that he’s one of my biggest winners of the week at this stage perhaps bizarrely.

I really like him too MoM but was really hoping that he'll prove too classy for the NHC and that they'd target the RSA. Monkfish's debut may have them looking at other targets though.

I might add him with B365 and have cash out as a safety net.

 

[Kevloaf]

Hi MOM - this is a genuine question and not one to insight an argument :welcoming: and this isn't necessarily aimed at you specifically - your post just reminded me of a question...

If you have already backed the horse "Any Race" and have that security of getting a run for your money (if they make it to the Fez), is there a specific reason why you would then go back in on a specific race?
I've seen a few posters "split stakes" between a specific race and any race and I'm curious as to the reasoning.

Everyone's approach is different and I like to explore new strategies where possible.
In my case, once I have backed a horse "any race" and I am comfortable with my level of potential return, I can then "forget" about them until nearer the time.

I can maybe answer a bit of that from my own viewpoint.

One of the reasons I would look to back the specific targets rather than any race is:

• Backing the bigger prices (specific target) gives potential trading opportunities.

Now personally I won't have 'half stakes' on them both, I'd put the full stake on both (where cash out is available only)! So that I can end up with one 'proper bet'....however.....


In the question though you've referred to Any Race and Specific, and I did that with Appreciate It. He was 16/1 and whilst I thought that was the most likely target (and backed accordingly) I then went in and added the any race 10/1 price just in case I was wrong. It was sort of a safety net bet..... as if I'm right, it still is a fair enough price, but if I'm wrong, I'd still fancy him in one of the other races and therefore I wouldn't be gutted if I was wrong on the target.

That's the only reason I'd use a split stake between any race and a specific target.

 

[Leman14]

I did that with Appreciate It. He was 16/1 and whilst I thought that was the most likely target (and backed accordingly) I then went in and added the any race 10/1 price just in case I was wrong. It was sort of a safety net bet..... as if I'm right, it still is a fair enough price, but if I'm wrong, I'd still fancy him in one of the other races and therefore I wouldn't be gutted if I was wrong on the target.

That's the only reason I'd use a split stake between any race and a specific target.

That makes sense that way around.
I don't have the luxury of cash out (the wife may need to start up an interest in horse racing...:anonymous, which is why I tend to take the shorter odds in the Any Race market.

The "cash-out" option is the bit that I was missing when trying to make sense of it.... as it's not in my Arsenal :hororr:

Thanks :smiley_simmons:

PS. I've decided that this is "I'm all ears" .... :butterfly: (not Butterfly!?!)

PPS. There's now too many emoji's to know what to do with :hopelessness:

 

[JackieMoon33]

That makes sense that way around.
I don't have the luxury of cash out (the wife may need to start up an interest in horse racing...:anonymous, which is why I tend to take the shorter odds in the Any Race market.

The "cash-out" option is the bit that I was missing when trying to make sense of it.... as it's not in my Arsenal :hororr:

Thanks :smiley_simmons:

PS. I've decided that this is "I'm all ears" .... :butterfly: (not Butterfly!?!)

PPS. There's now too many emoji's to know what to do with :hopelessness:

I'm onto a 'wife' account now with Bet365 after having my cash out provision removed from my account and also my brothers. All you need is a big enough family and you can carry on for a while :biggrin-new:

 

[YoungHustler]

I'm onto a 'wife' account now with Bet365 after having my cash out provision removed from my account and also my brothers. All you need is a big enough family and you can carry on for a while :biggrin-new:

Hi JM

I thought 365 are one of the best accounts and don't restrict you as easily as many other bookies. I want to keep both my accounts open as long as possible so are you able to advise the number of bets you were cashing out on and the average percentage returns before they restricted you please? Thank you.

 

[Run4Home]

I'm onto a 'wife' account now with Bet365 after having my cash out provision removed from my account and also my brothers. All you need is a big enough family and you can carry on for a while :biggrin-new:

Same happened to me removed my cash out, antepost bets and all stakes are like 30c max - get onto them and under GDPR ask for a subject access request on the account for all information.

Some of it makes for interesting reading, what they actually record on your account

My reason for closure which you can only find on the SAR was 'overnight tipping lines'