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Arkle 2020

Notebook’s times in his 3 chase runs are between 9 and 13 second off standard each time. Carrying weight in some.

I agree he’s a worthy fav, but I don’t think he’s bomb proof unless you put 4th in the Supreme as better form than 4th in the Ballymore last year. Form of the winners of those races this year would suggest otherwise.

I’m just railing against this dismissive attitude to a horse, that were he Mullins trained, based on his form, would be significantly shorter in the betting, hence the value.
 
Kevloaf said:
14/1 would be shorter than any horse I've backed in it

and he DOESN'T have the best chance of winning



So 14/1 might be value for you, but with my book - it's clearly not?
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I got him at 20s; I just think as the market stands today (not your book!!) he is the value! Fair? Make sense?

I’m not trying to persuade you to back him. I said he’s the value in the market currently. You commented about hating this Brewin’ love in. I explained myself. You don’t want to admit you read the form through SS wrong. And, ultimately, you don’t want to bet on him, which is cool. It has no impact on me. I’m just explaining myself when you tried to shoot down my opinion.
 
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TCH29 said:
I’m just railing against this dismissive attitude to a horse, that were he Mullins trained, based on his form, would be significantly shorter in the betting, hence the value.
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Sorry, what?! Don't try and put words in my mouth.

At what point is that relevant to anything I've said?


You're saying Brewin'upastorm is value because he's NOT trained by Mullins?
 
TCH29 said:
I got him at 20s; I just think as the market stands today (not your book!!) he is the value! Fair? Make sense?

I’m not trying to persuade you to back him. I said he’s the value in the market currently. You commented about hating this Brewin’ love in. I explained myself. You don’t want to admit you read the form through SS wrong. And, ultimately, you don’t want to bet on him, which is cool. It has no impact on me. I’m just explaining myself when you tried to shoot down my opinion.
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If I was looking at the race today, then I 100% dispute that Brewin'upastorm is the clear value pick.


Bapaume at the identical price of 14/1, in my opinion, is much better value, as he's more likely to win?


Does that make sense? :rolleyes: :highly_amused:



Melon at 14/1 with his Festival form would be more likely to get my money, so I think that's better value.


Cash Back definitely has stronger form in my opinion too, so better value at 12/1 than Brewin at 14/1.
 
Kevloaf said:
If I was looking at the race today, then I 100% dispute that Brewin'upastorm is the clear value pick.


Bapaume at the identical price of 14/1, in my opinion, is much better value, as he's more likely to win?


Does that make sense? :rolleyes: :highly_amused:



Melon at 14/1 with his Festival form would be more likely to get my money, so I think that's better value.


Cash Back definitely has stronger form in my opinion too, so better value at 12/1 than Brewin at 14/1.
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Completely agree with all of that Kev.
 
You edited this before I replied...... the bit in bold

TCH29 said:
I got him at 20s; I just think as the market stands today (not your book!!) he is the value! Fair? Make sense?

I’m not trying to persuade you to back him. I said he’s the value in the market currently. You commented about hating this Brewin’ love in. I explained myself. You don’t want to admit you read the form through SS wrong. And, ultimately, you don’t want to bet on him, which is cool. It has no impact on me. I’m just explaining myself when you tried to shoot down my opinion.
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You want me to admit I read the form wrong....I literally said regarding that form.....

Kevloaf said:
No I know it's not like for like, it was just very quick. :highly_amused:
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Is that not me acknowledging the fact it was just very basic reading of the form without the weights?





I'm sorry you felt I was shooting down your opinion personally, I know you're saying it has no impact on you.... but I bet the apology means something to you :p
 
Fine. Disagree on all those points, but we’re allowed to. And you did misread that FDE form! :devilish:

Bapaume is questionable to run.
Cash Back beat who? Tornado Flyer PU?
Melon they’re taking about going up in tip.

Brewin’ they’re saying here.

FWIW, I have all the above covered at decent prices, like you. Except you don’t have Brewin’ covered.

You might save yourself a couple of points.
 
We’ve basically got a very similar book funnily enough.

And yeah, I don’t like having my opinion dismissed! Lots of form reading, reading, and viewing goes into it! :p

I stand by 4min and 2 1/4 lengths! :devilish:
 
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Nah bollocks..its notebooks time:highly_amused:
 
Ha ha!

Probably. We’ll see. If Champ and Fly Smart win too, I’ll take that!!
 
Kevloaf said:
The difference is though TCH29....

All my book, thoughts, form reading, viewing and analysis goes in here


http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showthread.php?15338-Kevloaf-Cheltenham-2020-Ante-Post-Diary




:p



You might not like your opinions dismissed (I'd prefer to say challenged :p) but I feel I've at least earned the right to voice mine on this forum...


Not saying you haven't, just less pressure on you than me :highly_amused:
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I know it is! I read ALL of it; yours and everyone’s.

Mine is in a terribly formatted spreadsheet. I’m not trying to copy it out, tidy it all up and post it though! Happily email you it though. And last year’s. Happily take any advice! I know I’m too heavy on multiples and too highly geared to the Supreme but it’s worked for me the last 2 years.
 
TCH29 said:
I know it is! I read ALL of it; yours and everyone’s.

Mine is in a terribly formatted spreadsheet. I’m not trying to copy it out, tidy it all up and post it though! Happily email you it though. And last year’s. Happily take any advice! I know I’m too heavy on multiples and too highly geared to the Supreme but it’s worked for me the last 2 years.
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Ireland will win this years Arkle :devilish:




:encouragement: Well I look forward to your 2021 diary.... clearly know what you're talking about.....

It's give and take, and your doing more taking than giving by reading everything and only 219 posts in nearly 2 years :p
 
Kevloaf said:
Ireland will win this years Arkle :devilish:




:encouragement: Well I look forward to your 2021 diary.... clearly know what you're talking about.....

It's give and take, and your doing more taking than giving by reading everything and only 219 posts in nearly 2 years :p
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Yes id imagine (and im gonna say it!) if notebook wins hell go 13/8 something like that
 
Kevloaf said:
Ireland will win this years Arkle :devilish:




:encouragement: Well I look forward to your 2021 diary.... clearly know what you're talking about.....

It's give and take, and your doing more taking than giving by reading everything and only 219 posts in nearly 2 years :p
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I definitely am taking more than giving. I believe you learn by listening (or in this case reading) and I have no inside knowledge, just my own analysis.

But i have also flagged once before that this forum can be a little intimidating by how opinions can be shot down, often rightly, sometimes not.

I posted about Espoir D’Allen back mid-season last season, for the CH, got ignored or batted back at the time, but I was a newish poster. That’s not me aftertiming, sure it’s there somewhere.

Most people usually give more when they feel people are interested and listening. Otherwise, why bother?
 
I wasn't serious about the giving and taking, you can do whatever you like.... quality over quantity is not frowned upon at all!

Thanks for the feedback though, that's certainly not the culture I'd want to encourage and myself, or any of the other mods are happy to discuss any improvements you feel could be made.



I am very aware that I am potentially part of the problem too, but I am in no way immune to being reigned in, just message Old Vic, Faugheen_Machine or Istabraq :encouragement:


I'm just a fan too, started off the same as everybody here :)
 
This is what i signed up for! Serious debate, if you fancy a horse its open to be picked at from everyone else and for you to defend it. This is what leads us to some quality picks when it matters, Much appreciated. Its notebooks time
 
Ray said:
This is what i signed up for! Serious debate, if you fancy a horse its open to be picked at from everyone else and for you to defend it. This is what leads us to some quality picks when it matters, Much appreciated. Its notebooks time
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Notebook has no chance, Gigginstown buy staying chasers...

Name 1 decent 2 mile chaser that Gigginstown have EVER been involved with?


:highly_amused:
 
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