Supreme Novices Hurdle 2020

[jack1092]

They'd be daft to run her if it's proper Haydock heavy! That race will cut up something shocking

 

[Can't Catch Me]

They'd be daft to run her if it's proper Haydock heavy! That race will cut up something shocking

Can't see them running any of them if this weather carries on!

 

[Humble Pie]

Can't see them running any of them if this weather carries on!

Meetings will be off if high winds and rain continue

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Probably could run the graded races the following week if the storm and rain puts the weekends racing off.

 

[Kevloaf]

Kevs Supreme bets

Supreme
Fly Smart 25/1 e/w 2 pts and 33/1 (free bets)
Abacadabras 33/1 e/w (1.5 pts)
Master Debonair 66/1 e/w 0.5 pts
Mister Coffey 66/1 e/w 0.5 pts
*Fiddlerontheroof 40/1 1.25 pts
Edwardstone 33/1 e/w
Chantry House 40/1 e/w
Andy Dufresne 8/1 (any race) 2 pts
Andy Dufresne 25/1 e/w

Must be missing at least one potential winner :witless:

Meow!

Will be a worry when Unexcepted looms up on the snaff....

That’s exactly what I was thinking :highly_amused:

The worst thing if that happened would be that I backed him and cashed him

Captain Guinness winning would be worse... :dejection: backed myself into a corner with him now :highly_amused:
2021 Arkle winner

 

[Kevloaf]

I don't fancy any of the horses in the Tolworth to go on and win the Supreme.


Fiddlerontheroof winning today would cement that for me but I can see why Edwardstone is of interest. I might try and back him if Fiddler wins well as he's 33/1 - 365 might not suspend him as he's not running. Only to get ahead of the SP though.

Glad I did take the price, but I still feel the same, Fiddler and Edwardstone are both bang average. It just might be a bang average year.

Edwardstone into 10's with Paddy!

I know his form has taken a few nice boosts, but I would very much fancy Chantry House to confirm form with him myself. I know it was a bumper over a year ago but he beat him pretty decisively.

Dangerous to take bumper form too literally though isn't it. There are countless examples where horses just improve for the different discipline and to assume the bumper form will be upheld in dangerous.

At the prices they are though, it's definitely an angle to add Chantry House - Edwardstone is plenty short for having other horses do the donkey work for him in terms of form.

 

[Jrow]

Anyone have any idea where Fly Smart is?
Very late in the day to be starting out now, if at all?

Whats peoples thoughts on Asterion Forlonge as mullins’ supreme horse? Won well last week, albeit jumping right at each hurdle. Hes also entered amongst others in the grade 1 novice, which Klassical Dream won last year at DRF..

 

[The King Pimm]

I noticed earlier that Ribble Valley is entered & priced up on Saturday in both the Supreme & Champion Hurdle Trials at Haydock. Is this an administrative error or do the owner & trainer think this horse has super powers?? He couldn’t keep up with Master Debonair at Ascot over Christmas so not sure what they are expecting on Saturday

 

[Cashew King]

I noticed earlier that Ribble Valley is entered & priced up on Saturday in both the Supreme & Champion Hurdle Trials at Haydock. Is this an administrative error or do the owner & trainer think this horse has super powers?? He couldn’t keep up with Master Debonair at Ascot over Christmas so not sure what they are expecting on Saturday

Money - the Champion trial is worth over twice as much. How many will declare on Haydock heavy?

He’s got the option of picking up more money in the latter even without winning - but in the end it’ll depend what gets declared as to where they’ll run.

 

[Pendil]

Meow!





The worst thing if that happened would be that I backed him and cashed him

Captain Guinness winning would be worse... :dejection: backed myself into a corner with him now :highly_amused:
2021 Arkle winner

And no fall back position with EA

 

[DeeBee]

looking back at Abacadabras previous runs, his apparent lack of battling qualiities does concern me. Theres no doubt in my mind he places but i expect 1 or 2 others be stronger in the finish. Edwardstone looks a real battler and im looking forward to his run on Saturday

 

[Lobos]

I'm thinking Captain Guinness could end up the biggest challenger to Aba in the Supreme. Everything about the race looks to be in his favour. Big player.

 

[charlie]

looking back at Abacadabras previous runs, his apparent lack of battling qualiities does concern me. Theres no doubt in my mind he places but i expect 1 or 2 others be stronger in the finish. Edwardstone looks a real battler and im looking forward to his run on Saturday

I was inclined to agree until I watched all the races back. Won on debut with untold amounts in hand. Beat Latest Exhibition (who admittedly wants further) as easily as you like. I was really impressed vs Envoi Allen. The winner has led from the front whilst Abacadabras has had to come from the back and around runners. Approaching the last Davy's actually getting to work on EA whilst Jack sits there cruising and its the mistake at the last that stops him getting closer to Envoi Allen than any other horse would. LTO he took the last upside the runner up who he quickly put 7 lengths between over the last 200 yards. I think he's a worthy fav but I'd be telling Jack to hold onto him and not get to the front too early in a supreme.

 

[hardheld]

People must be mad backing Abacadabras at 7/2!

I think he's Gordon's 3rd best novice hurdler and will Giggenstowns 2nd string for this.

 

[jack1092]

People must be mad backing Abacadabras at 7/2!

I think he's Gordon's 3rd best novice hurdler and will Giggenstowns 2nd string for this.

He'll defo be their first string. Has the form in the book. Will be against him on the day though big time. Especially if Skybet give the same concession this year.

 

[TCH29]

I was inclined to agree until I watched all the races back. Won on debut with untold amounts in hand. Beat Latest Exhibition (who admittedly wants further) as easily as you like. I was really impressed vs Envoi Allen. The winner has led from the front whilst Abacadabras has had to come from the back and around runners. Approaching the last Davy's actually getting to work on EA whilst Jack sits there cruising and its the mistake at the last that stops him getting closer to Envoi Allen than any other horse would. LTO he took the last upside the runner up who he quickly put 7 lengths between over the last 200 yards. I think he's a worthy fav but I'd be telling Jack to hold onto him and not get to the front too early in a supreme.

Completely agree, Charlie. He is too short. But his performances, turn off foot and actual times look the best of the field so far.

 

[Philg123]

He’s the best form going into the race I can’t see how he’s so opposable? Think hel just win, his form Behind envoi Allen makes him the one to beat

 

[charlie]

Completely agree, Charlie. He is too short. But his performances, turn off foot and actual times look the best of the field so far.

Oh aye, I wouldn't back him at 7/2 but fortunately on at bigger. That 16/1 push after the EA defeat was proper xmas early kind of stuff.

 

[Philg123]

Exactly what I thought at the time! Somebody got their p45 the next day!

 

[hardheld]

He'll defo be their first string. Has the form in the book. Will be against him on the day though big time. Especially if Skybet give the same concession this year.

I disagree. I think Easywork is Gigginstown best chance in the Supreme, and he is Gordons second best novice behind EA. 16/1 is a big price for what he has achieved. He's been so impressive in all departments (jumping & attitude), and hasn't even been shown the whip and ridden under hand and heals, plenty in the tank sir.

Easywork has all the qualities you want in a Supreme horse, and is on an upward curve. I totally agree with MB sporting life piece analysing gordons 5 novice hurdlers. I think he will go same route and Felix Desjy as he races quite freely.

Have had a good whack on him at 14/1 with cashout option bet365.

If he turn up here he is a massive player