Marsh Novices Chase 2020 (was JLT)

[Quevega]

But EVEN if one concedes Ballymoy is almost a stone worse over fences and is a 140 OR chase horse, WA beat him by 12L carrying 5lb more. That is surely worth more than a mark of 10?!

I get that it is highly unusual for a horse to improve 25lbs for his first two runs over fences. But the OR is not meant to reflect IFs and BUTs; it’s mean to reflect what has actually happened.

The most likely thing here is that loves soft and on soft he is a 155-160 horse, but on firmer ground he doesn’t have the extra gear. But until his next race proves that, you have to take him at face value, surely?

He can always opt to use other horses to get his gauge.
Especially if they think one has underperformed vs his/her rating.
But it's very difficult rating these novices. For sure.
And I totally see where you could come up with your rating.
Just don't think that will happen in reality.
Handicapper is usually more circumspect than that.

 

[Quevega]

Just looked up Nube Negra and he has him on a provisional rating of 146 (chase)
after his 2 runs.
seems like he ignored Ballymoy proximity.
If Ballymoy runs a similar race next time he'll be perfect for the Novice chase on the Tuesday.

 

[TCH29]

He can always opt to use other horses to get his gauge.
Especially if they think one has underperformed vs his/her rating.
But it's very difficult rating these novices. For sure.
And I totally see where you could come up with your rating.
Just don't think that will happen in reality.
Handicapper is usually more circumspect than that.

Well, I agree with that!! I’m sure you will be right re. the handicapper, but I just hope that causes some juice to be left in the price in his next race.

If he pitches up on soft at a course like Sandown where it’s all about jumping for these novices, I will be all over him.

 

[TCH29]

Just looked up Nube Negra and he has him on a provisional rating of 146 (chase)

And WA beat the same horse 9L further carrying 5lbs more...

I actually though Nuba Negra would be Skelton’s Close Brothers plot before he ran him in that last race. Now his mark is bust. They must think he’s a potential JLT horse. Either that or you’ll see him finishing a long way in last in some grade 1s.

 

[Quevega]

And WA beat the same horse 9L further carrying 5lbs more...

I actually though Nuba Negra would be Skelton’s Close Brothers plot before he ran him in that last race. Now his mark is bust. They must think he’s a potential JLT horse. Either that or you’ll see him finishing a long way in last in some grade 1s.

Not necessarily bust, will depend on next run.
But Windsor Avenue has to be given a higher rating for sure and he looks destined for graded races. (he left him on his hurdle rating of 138 after his first run btw) He'll publish a new chase rating next tuesday, so we'll see what he does (it's a tricky one)

edit -sorry - he put him up 4lb from 134

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Nube Negra will be in graded race next time. I thought the Sandown 2M graded race was mentioned in the recent past on here.

There’s no way anyone think Ballymoy is running to his hurdles mark over fences. Windsor Avenue won’t be marked up to 168 based on beating Ballymoy (hurdle rating 151) by 12 lengths and 5lbs.

My thoughts are that he is above the Close Brothers 145 ceiling after today, and I don’t think the trainer is focussed on anything other than graded races for him at this point in time.

 

[Quevega]

Will be interesting to see how Nube Negra is ran - next time.

 

[TCH29]

Will be interesting to see how Nube Negra is ran - next time.

Absolutely! Skelton is the king of the long term plots and to my mind he often hides them in very competitive grade 1s, so no one questions the performance but it gets a few lbs off each time.

 

[TCH29]

Nube Negra will be in graded race next time. I thought the Sandown 2M graded race was mentioned in the recent past on here.

There’s no way anyone think Ballymoy is running to his hurdles mark over fences. Windsor Avenue won’t be marked up to 168 based on beating Ballymoy (hurdle rating 151) by 12 lengths and 5lbs.

My thoughts are that he is above the Close Brothers 145 ceiling after today, and I don’t think the trainer is focussed on anything other than graded races for him at this point in time.

No one is saying he will or should be rated 168! But 10lbs to a stone lower can’t be miles out.

 

[billymag]

RPRs gave Windsor Avenue 155 which does seem reasonable, be interesting to see him in the Dipper, I cant see a way that he gets a rating that will allow him to run in the Close Brothers after today, he was very good.

 

[jonthehammer]

Backed Windsor Ave a few weeks back at 40s and took some more straight after the race as 365 didn't react straightaway. Not sure why as that was the best round if jumping I have seen pretty much from any of the novice chasers. He pretty much winged every fence. He is still over priced now I think. Hope he can continue to impress as the season develops.

 

[Humble Pie]

Backed Windsor Ave a few weeks back at 40s and took some more straight after the race as 365 didn't react straightaway. Not sure why as that was the best round if jumping I have seen pretty much from any of the novice chasers. He pretty much winged every fence. He is still over priced now I think. Hope he can continue to impress as the season develops.

Agree 100%JTH
Did likewise but a tad too slow was driving south for 5 hours !
Bit of 40’s and 25’s

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Ronald Pump mightily impressive on chase debut at Fairyhouse, and Bapaume is winning nothing if he continues in that vein of form throughout the season.

 

[Craigy14]

Seemed to be very low at his fences, almost through them as opposed to jumping them if that makes sense. Winner was impressive cruised up beside and pulled away easily.

 

[darlojim]

Ronald Pump mightily impressive on chase debut at Fairyhouse, and Bapaume is winning nothing if he continues in that vein of form throughout the season.

I know Mullins doesn't train his horses to be cherry ripe in November but is it a worry that alot of his are finishing very tamely? Bapaume, Duc De Genievres, Fast Buck to make a few..

 

[charlie]

I know Mullins doesn't train his horses to be cherry ripe in November but is it a worry that alot of his are finishing very tamely? Bapaume, Duc De Genievres, Fast Buck to make a few..

Not in the slightest. He is never firing on all cylinders this time of year

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

I know Mullins doesn't train his horses to be cherry ripe in November but is it a worry that alot of his are finishing very tamely? Bapaume, Duc De Genievres, Fast Buck to make a few..

Most of the big prizes are in the spring. That's when they need to peak.

 

[Big Chac]

I actually thought bapume jumped quite well today, got over his fences quick and was neat and tidy.....he pretty much came to a stop after the second last so probably took a good blow.

Id like to see what he can do next time and still one to consider for this I feel...albeit he needs to step up markedly for that run

 

[jonthehammer]

Ronald Pump very impressive, even nicer I got 10/1 on him today. I have a mate who knows the owners and he is going to find out what the plans are.

 

[Kevloaf]

Very much so, if this was trained by hendo, mullins, Elliott it would be single figures

That's because the horse would have a better chance of winning at the festival though...


I'm pretty sure Sean Boyce put Windsor Avenue up as one to follow...or somebody on a podcast.



I always think with horses that aren't "sexy" - you can afford to see them again and again before they get over bet.

WA is the kind of horse that wouldn't ever make it to fav for a festival race... so he'd be value on the day.

Not knocking 40/1 shots obviously, but I hope you can all see what I mean?