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Marsh Novices Chase 2020 (was JLT)

quevega said:
COD.
Getaway Trump ran in 3 PTP's from what I've seen, all over 3 miles, winning the last one on heavy ground, and fading in the first two he ran in. But none of them look like they contained anything else of note.
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Yeah I know, the argument made by JackieMoon was that PTP's can produce 2milers and they can. but personally I think the majority go over further during their careers.
 
City Island confirmed to be going chasing.

I think he’s fast enough and stays well enough that this is his likeliest destination but I’d rather go any race when I eventually decide to get him on side. I like him and would be prepared to forgive that Punchestown run as he just didn’t look fresh at all. Sometimes horses just look tired and he really looked like a horse who hadn’t recovered from the Ballymore - something Brassil agrees with.

Anyone know what his best any race price is? Annoying oddschecker haven’t got that page available yet. 7s is best I’ve seen.
 
Just been reading that M.o.M., martin brassil say's " he's very versatile, he has won over two miles.
two miles five at cheltenham and i don't think three miles would be a problem for him either.
So could be another R.s.a candidate.
 
If you want any race hills is the place to go
 
Middle_Of_March said:
City Island confirmed to be going chasing.

I think he’s fast enough and stays well enough that this is his likeliest destination but I’d rather go any race when I eventually decide to get him on side. I like him and would be prepared to forgive that Punchestown run as he just didn’t look fresh at all. Sometimes horses just look tired and he really looked like a horse who hadn’t recovered from the Ballymore - something Brassil agrees with.

Anyone know what his best any race price is? Annoying oddschecker haven’t got that page available yet. 7s is best I’ve seen.
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Hills have City Island 10/1 to win any race
 
I'll put it here but it's a common theme for all the novice chase threads.

In terms of risk factor for taking an early price for a particular target race:
- horses that missed part of last season, in particular Cheltenham, due to injury or training problems are of a concern.
- chasers are the most risky.
- novice chasers are the most risky chasers.
- novice chasers that are trained or owned by people who have several other options for the target race are the most risky novice chasers.

You'd probably want double figure odds for a horse fitting all the above even lining up for a specified race next March.
 
Bit of money today for both Samcro and Reserve Tank in this race, Ladbrokes (among others) both into 10s from 16s and 14s respectively....16s still available with 365 for both
 
I was really hoping Reserve Tank went RSA route, looked a proper stayer to me
 
After the owners and trainer voiced their regret about entering Lost in Translation in the JLT last year instead of the RSA I don’t think they’ll make the same mistake with reserve tank
 
The King Pimm said:
After the owners and trainer voiced their regret about entering Lost in Translation in the JLT last year instead of the RSA I don’t think they’ll make the same mistake with reserve tank
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Big discrepancy on prices KP on RSA
365 @ 33’s. Billies 16’s
What I would say is that Reserve Tank isn’t Lostintranslation and I think they’ll see how the horse performs and the season pans out .
As Rhinestone said money for both Samcro and Reserve Tank for JLT
 
Although I made a big case for Reserve Tank for the RSA back in August, I'm still unsure enough to have not backed him at present other than a speculative multiple. I was hoping something might come to light in a stable tour but I've seen nothing to steer me so far. I'm still a huge fan and will follow him for either race but I'm finding myself leaning more to the JLT the more I think about it. I'll probably change again next week though!

JackieMoon33 said:
I’ve managed to find some time to start compiling my 2019/2020 shortlist and decided to start with my less obvious candidates. Below are six from left field:

Reserve Tank - Colin Tizzard - RSA - 33/1

He would not have been in too many notebooks prior to the Cheltenham Festival but he should be now. Finished the season with big wins at Aintree and Punchestown over two and a half miles but he looks like he could be a stayer to me. Because he has not run over 3 miles over hurdles, the ante post prices for him favour the JLT (16/1) but if you watch the races and read/listen to the interviews, I think stepping up in trip is a definite option for him and therefore I want him for the RSA. He’s a two time Grade 1 winner and with a trainer who knows how to win at Cheltenham. I don’t think they’ll make the same mistake as with Lostintranslation last year and run over the shorter JLT distance and get tapped for speed again. The price for the RSA of 33/1 is one of the best ante post prices you’ll find this season.

All prices with Bet365 for cash out purposes.
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Gordy just been on racing channel; Samcro did his first bit of work this morning, had a good blow afterwards and will start off at Down Royal
 
Tizzard on Reserve Tank

Reserve Tank
We’ll run him at Chepstow next weekend. Robbie Power came over and schooled him yesterday and he looks like a chaser already.
Horses like him are rare, he’s already won two Grade 1s and as tempting as it was to keep him over hurdles, Cue Card, Native River, Finian’s Oscar all went to that Chepstow race and gone on from there all as five-year-olds.
That’s where I think we’ll go and Robbie rides for those owners anyway so it all works perfectly.
He’s going to keep coming over as much as possible when there’s no racing in Ireland.
We’ll take Chepstow in first and go from there, there isn’t much more planned just yet.
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A move for reserve tank for this, into 9/1 with bet365 and clipped else where....looks as though still 16's left with betvictor
 
sprintersacren said:
A move for reserve tank for this, into 9/1 with bet365 and clipped else where....looks as though still 16's left with betvictor
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That’s a hell of a cut based on a stable tour update. Bet365 were 16/1 and was within my zone. That’s fooked now.
 
I can understand him being cut after an impressive debut but that reaction has really surprised me. I’m very annoyed at myself for delaying my bets as I can’t take that price now. The RSA price remains unchanged at 33/1 but I guess that’s an indication that the JLT is the current preferred race on all known information.
 
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