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Stayers Hurdle 2020

somer1

somer1

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So where we standing on this. We have the Great story of Paisley Park trying to keep its crown and the two time champion Penhill to come back?Or can we see a new champion being crowned next year?Who will it be? I think this could be one of the best races of the festival in 2020.What do you guys think?
Soz if the thread has been started already.
 
Have to say I think this is a fairly weak division now and Paisley Park, of fit, will go off very short.
The runner up (Sam Spinner) is chase bound apparently and I don't think there's much from the last years novices who could reach championship level.
I was tempted by the Paisley Park to go unbeaten all season at 8/1 but held off for now....
 
Paisley Park. Close Thread.

Seriously though, the only challenges I see come from Penhill if it is a slowly run race (and if he gets there) and Benie Des Dieux but I’m not convinced she will come here.

One thing I want to see in the race is a good gallop. He could be vulnerable if they go a crawl like in 2018.
 
somer1 said:
So we thinking Penhill is a play @ 16/1 best price?
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He will probably run once before Cheltenham and be a similar price in March as now so I’d leave it. Emitom is the EW play IMO
 
somer1 said:
So we thinking Penhill is a play @ 16/1 best price?
Click to expand...

He would be for me if it wasn’t for Mullins mentioning last year (just before he was confirmed injured if I remember correctly) that he’s the type of horse you look in on every morning hoping he isn’t lame.
 
Holding back on pushing the button on Penhill till i see an entry.Done some wonga on it last year!!
 
....an unlikely runner here given Skelton’s comments, but I hope Roksana is aimed at this race. It looks like she will defend her Mares Hurdle crown, but she was a very fortunate winner and I feel this race could suit her more.
 
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As impressive as Paisley Park was last season i do think it was a plain looking staying hurdle division. Hopefully Emitom emerges as one of the challengers, but he is definitely the EW play in the race now for me
 
somer1 said:
So we thinking Penhill is a play @ 16/1 best price?
Click to expand...

I backed Penhill 16s a few weeks ago.
Very fragile horse so the bet comes with a massive health warning but at the moment he’s the only credible alternative to the fav...
 
Istabraq said:
I backed Penhill 16s a few weeks ago.
Very fragile horse so the bet comes with a massive health warning but at the moment he’s the only credible alternative to the fav...
Click to expand...

If Benie goes down the Stayers route which I think is very likely, she will be the biggest threat to Paisley especially with the Mares allowance and after proving her staying powers in the French Champion Hurdle. She doesn't need to go down the Mares route again as Mullins has plenty of others that can replace her.
 
Can't discount Penhill but he's one who's price will only contract (considerably) if challengers start to fall by the way side. Could and can often happen here even with horses dropping into the race through the season but one I'd be holding fire until the New Year and NRNB.

Mentioned Emitom here:
http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/show...enham-2020-Ante-post-bets&p=114092#post114092
during the summer as below:

1pt - Emitom - Stayers - 33/1 EW

I saw he got a mention earlier on in the thread and i'd actually follow that up. Firstly he HAS to brush up on his jumping but hopefully another summer and more experience can iron out those issues but I think he's actually got a pretty nice profile for the race. He beat Lisnagar Oscar in his maiden hurdle. His follow up run was pretty lacklustre at 1/8 odds but I hope in hindsight it'll prove it was way too short over 2 miles for him. For all Interconnected was massively overated in terms of cost that beating giving 10lbs may just look slightly stronger when we see more of the runner up. So 3 wins, 5 including bumpers looks good. But I was always dubious until he proved it in grade 1 company. Onto Aintree and for me there's no doubt he proved it. Once again he had the beating of Lisnagar Oscar for the second time that season and that is no bad thing. LO finished 5th the the Albert Bartlett. The Irish trio of Minella Indo, Commander of Fleet, Allaho all go chasing, as most probably does the Henderson trained Dickie Diver who LO is closely tied too (the pair were 1-1 in a match). I think it's fair to say that LO proved himself up there if not the very best of the British staying novice hurdlers last season. And he backed that run up with a similar RPR and OR at Aintree which suggest on a literal form line, Emitom despite not running at Cheltenham would have been in around the places. I don't think there was any fluck in his Aintree run and he should only improve another year on other 3miles going forward. Though not a trainer where a glowing report might make you jump onto oddschecker, it's clear he has the horse right up there as one of his best ever at this stage and has come out and said he's likely to go for this race:

"I don't think he'll be experienced enough to do that next season (chasing) and I imagine in the autumn we'll start out with a view to developing him into a Stayer's Hurdle horse...He's just got so much natural ability and on that alone I think he has the potential to be one of the best horses i've trained...He is a very good horse, seriosuly good...he is a bit special"

Greatrex of course had Cole Harden win the Stayers in 2015 plus two 4th place finishes in the race so has a decent grasp of what it takes to succeed in the race. I'd expect him to start the season off at Wetherby in the West Yorkshire Hurdle (won by Cole Harden in 2014) at the start of November. This should give him a good sighter in open company before taking on the likes of Paisley Park at Newbury at the end of November.
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Nothing to change that view right now. Certainly the one horse at a price i'm most interested in.

Early Doors Was also backed at the same time. Was always open to going over fences and that has obviously happened since.
Still may happen but looks slim and almost certainly a cashout at some point.

That said I still think it's a case of picking up the pieces here if Paisley Park returns in the same health and form.
The most solid horse going into the season and 2020 Festival. Pretty rock solid. So anything that's not at least 25's is going to be hard for me to be too keen on at this stage
 
Lobos said:
If Benie goes down the Stayers route which I think is very likely, she will be the biggest threat to Paisley.
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I don’t disagree, but I think many people see the Mares as a second rate race.
Mullins resisted sending Quevega anywhere else and the Mares was only a G2 for (I think) all of her wins so I’m not convinced Benie takes the stayers route.
He has an embarrassment of riches of course but Benie’s best chance of a festival win has to be the Mares...
 
I think laurina might go here. The same owner have eglantine de suil for the mares race and she ran some very decent races last year. The clearly aren’t afraid at pitching laurina in at the deep end. Ruby came back last year and said he was never comfortable on her in the champion hurdle so she probably won’t go there again, I reckon a step up in trip this year......and this could be where she ends up, providing she stays hurdling.
 
I have If the cap fits and Emitom at the bigger prices , Paisley park surely the one to beat , .
But too early to be taking 3-1 for me.
 
Isty agree 100%
BDD for the Mares , unless Ricci sticks his snout in !
 
If BDD were mine I'd send her here. Beating De Bon Coeur over 3m is seriously decent form that cannot be ignored IMO. The language of the owner and trainer post race sounded like they were leaning more towards taking on the boys the following season, but who knows. I think if the decision was solely down to Willie, then BDD would probably end up in the mares again because its the most winnable race and we know that's how Willie works. The fly in ointment for BDD mares backers is Ricci as the owner and Willie's embarrassment of riches in the mares division. A lot will hinge on whether or not they think Laurina is of Champion Hurdle standard, and what the likes of Eglantine Du Seuil & Concertista show us. Personally, I think Laurina connections would have learnt their lesson last year and aim her at the far more winnable Mares hurdle (I think they are mad not to go chasing but that's another conversation entirely). If Ricci is stubborn and wants BDD to run in the mares too then we have a hell of a race on our hands. That being said, I don't see why they would do that so if I was a BDD backer at 6/1 I would be nervously awaiting news on what the plans for Laurina are.
 
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