July Forum Yankee

[Middle_Of_March]

Bit late to start this thread but with the Eclipse and the July meeting over with, there’s a break in the flat season now to have a think again about the jumps. Apologies about the previous months effort. With Royal Ascot and other things going on, I struggled for time really and ended up going with the seemingly most popular suggestion for the final four.

I plan to go through in the next few days and add up how many of each horse and each race we’ve got already in the previous yankees so we can avoid repetition. Nothing worse than a horse being ruled out of Cheltenham in January to ruin two or three of the earlier months ones in one swoop (happened once or twice last year).

Any early suggestions for a theme? Only two of these left before the jumps would’ve began.

What about a speculative target yankee? So horses who are possible for certain races but not 100%? Such as Benie Des Dieux for the Stayers or Altior for the Gold Cup. These aren’t actual suggestions (I’m looking at you Kev ) but just examples.

Or maybe previous Festival winners or horses that ran well at the meeting previously? Such as Envoi Allen for the Ballymore or Klassical Dream for the Champion Hurdle.

All ideas welcome. Two weeks to sort this months effort out so plenty of time.

 

[Hurricane fly]

Former winners is a good one - couple of suggestions
Samcro JLT
Klassical Dream CH
City Island/Paisley Park Stayers

 

[Kevloaf]

Samcro Gold Cup.

As a novice.:highly_amused:



I'll have more of a think, but HF is probably right agreeing that former winners is a more sensible plot

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Just my take but for ante post multiples months out I would suggest targeting horses with a known/probable race, archie provided reasonable arguments that even those with definite targets are only 50% likely to turn up so taking a flyer on improbable targets wouldn’t be my preference.
Happy to follow the majority though...

 

[Middle_Of_March]

I’m relatively impartial but if no other ideas came forward and it was just these two, I would also be in favour of the past winners yankee than the speculative race one.

 

[Middle_Of_March]

So we’ve agreed we are going to go for a yankee if horses who ran well here previously. Of those who won or ran well and have likely targets at this stage from 2019:

- Klassical Dream - Champion Hurdle
- Thomas Darby - Arkle
- Duc Des Genievres - Champion Chase
- Espoir D’Allen - Champion Hurdle
- Benie Des Dieux - Mares/Stayers Hurdle
- A Plus Tard - Ryanair
- City Island - JLT
- Champ - RSA
- Topofthegame - Gold Cup
- Santini - Gold Cup
- Delta Work - Gold Cup
- Altior - Champion Chase
- Tiger Roll - Cross Country
- Band Of Outlaws - Champion Hurdle
- Envoi Allen - Ballymore
- Blue Sari - Ballymore
- Defi Du Seuil - Ryanair
- Lostintranslation - Gold Cup
- Frodon - Ryanair
- Paisley Park - Stayers
- Pentland Hills - Champion Hurdle
- Minella Indo - RSA
- Commander of Fleet - RSA
- Al Boum Photo - Gold Cup
- Hazel Hill - Foxhunter
- Early Doors - JLT
- Dallas Des Pictons - JLT


I’ll add 2017 and 2018 tomorrow night to this post.

 

[SeanRock]

I'd add Carefully Selected to the list with a view to the NHC, the bumper isn't exactly a pointer but it has thrown up some more than useful stayers in the past. Positives are he has the right age profile & has shown the longer the better with regards trip, 33/1 with unibet seems generous to me & iv had a good e/w single.

 

[BigChaang]

One more for the List - Roksana , winner of the mares hurdle this year and according to Dan Skelton.
Only Race she turn's up in next march. ( at the moment.).

 

[The Beast]

Chacun Pour Soi - Queen Mother
Looked a little special when he eventually showed up last term and could go to the very top table to dine next season , can see him giving Altior something to think about in QM.Whether he is good enough is another story , but this is his likely target.

Min - Ryanair
Take a look at his record over 2.4 miles , he almost unbeatable. Consider he mixed it with Altior over 2m shows his versatility and class.With the emergence of Chacun ,surely the pathway for Cheltenham glory via the Ryanair his for the taking.Bookies not taking any chances with him so they know it will be his likely desination unless Chacun gets injured.

 

[somer1]

If we are doing former winners can we have "The Mighty Western Warhorse" Sorry guys the gun was loaded so someone had to fire it :highly_amused::highly_amused::highly_amused:

 

[BigChaang]

If we are doing former winners can we have "The Mighty Western Warhorse" Sorry guys the gun was loaded so someone had to fire it :highly_amused::highly_amused::highly_amused:

...... made me Laugh !!..:highly_amused:

 

[Middle_Of_March]

Chacun Pour Soi - Queen Mother
Looked a little special when he eventually showed up last term and could go to the very top table to dine next season , can see him giving Altior something to think about in QM.Whether he is good enough is another story , but this is his likely target.

Min - Ryanair
Take a look at his record over 2.4 miles , he almost unbeatable. Consider he mixed it with Altior over 2m shows his versatility and class.With the emergence of Chacun ,surely the pathway for Cheltenham glory via the Ryanair his for the taking.Bookies not taking any chances with him so they know it will be his likely desination unless Chacun gets injured.

We already have CPS in the May Yankee and I personally think we should definitely keep this to previous winners.

I just couldn’t bring myself to put Min in one of these either. He’s just had too many chances and not delivered for me. It would have to be a huge majority screaming for him for me to have him in.


Previous Festival winners is the aim though lads.. I think this could be a real good one too as it’s usually something in the market that pays backing previous winners blind.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Benie Des Dieux would be my preferred pick!

 

[Saxon Warrior]

In looking at the 2019 Festival I can advise that the following all gained wins that were rated well against other winners over the last ten years.

ROKSANA Mares Hurdle 8/1 - Maybe overlooked as BDD fell at last but Roksana’s rating of 150 was decent c/w prior years (152, 150, 146, 149, 147, 148, 140). She then improved to an RPR of 156 in the Aintree Hurdle, which is the same rating given to BDD for her Chelters fall.

A PLUS TARD Ryanair Chase 20/1 - absolutely took apart the Close Brothers with an RPR of 165 for his 16 length win. Prior winners had put up ratings of 147, 149, 152, 148, 147, 154, 157, 146, 152. A decent price at 20s given Defi Du Seuil put up an RPR of 164 to win the JLT and is 8/1 fav for the Ryanair.

BAND OF OUTLAWS 40/1 Champion Hurdle - BOO’s RPR of 147 in winning the Fred Winter was above any other winner in the last ten years (135, 137, 137, 1330, 130, 140, 133, 121, 146). Runs in the Galway Hurdle, 6/1 fav, next week and a win could propel him into a plan for a Champion Hurdle campaign given his performance at the track last March.

SHANTOU FLYER 16/1 Foxhunters - 2nd in the race this year, ridden by his owner. His rating of 149 would have been good enough to win the previous seven years Foxhunters (141, 145, 135, 148, 131, 148, 148). He is 9 which is younger than any of the last five winners and could be back for another shot next year. He won the Plate in 2017 and was 2nd in the Ultimata in 2018. His Cheltenham runs away from the Festival are also strong.

EARLY DOORS 50/1 Stayers Hurdle - put up an RPR of 156 when winning the Martin Pipe from Dallas Des Pictons. Prior winners have produced some top performers in the future but none got as big a rating as Early Doors. Ratings were 153, 145, 146, 147 (Killultagh Vic), 153 (Don Poli,) 154, 147, 143 (Sir Des Champs), 146. ED was 3rd in the race in 2018 so does love the track. Well worth a pop at the Stayers Hurdle even if form on flatter tracks mid-season in slower run races hasn’t led to victories.


I think these horses could be useful in any 2020 Festival discussions.

 

[Middle_Of_March]

In looking at the 2019 Festival I can advise that the following all gained wins that were rated well against other winners over the last ten years.

ROKSANA Mares Hurdle 8/1 - Maybe overlooked as BDD fell at last but Roksana’s rating of 150 was decent c/w prior years (152, 150, 146, 149, 147, 148, 140). She then improved to an RPR of 156 in the Aintree Hurdle, which is the same rating given to BDD for her Chelters fall.

A PLUS TARD Ryanair Chase 20/1 - absolutely took apart the Close Brothers with an RPR of 165 for his 16 length win. Prior winners had put up ratings of 147, 149, 152, 148, 147, 154, 157, 146, 152. A decent price at 20s given Defi Du Seuil put up an RPR of 164 to win the JLT and is 8/1 fav for the Ryanair.

BAND OF OUTLAWS 40/1 Champion Hurdle - BOO’s RPR of 147 in winning the Fred Winter was above any other winner in the last ten years (135, 137, 137, 1330, 130, 140, 133, 121, 146). Runs in the Galway Hurdle, 6/1 fav, next week and a win could propel him into a plan for a Champion Hurdle campaign given his performance at the track last March.

SHANTOU FLYER 16/1 Foxhunters - 2nd in the race this year, ridden by his owner. His rating of 149 would have been good enough to win the previous seven years Foxhunters (141, 145, 135, 148, 131, 148, 148). He is 9 which is younger than any of the last five winners and could be back for another shot next year. He won the Plate in 2017 and was 2nd in the Ultimata in 2018. His Cheltenham runs away from the Festival are also strong.

EARLY DOORS 50/1 Stayers Hurdle - put up an RPR of 156 when winning the Martin Pipe from Dallas Des Pictons. Prior winners have produced some top performers in the future but none got as big a rating as Early Doors. Ratings were 153, 145, 146, 147 (Killultagh Vic), 153 (Don Poli,) 154, 147, 143 (Sir Des Champs), 146. ED was 3rd in the race in 2018 so does love the track. Well worth a pop at the Stayers Hurdle even if form on flatter tracks mid-season in slower run races hasn’t led to victories.


I think these horses could be useful in any 2020 Festival discussions.

Good stuff this Hampton.

I’d be very much in favour of A Plus Tard and very much against Roksana.

A Plus Tard really did look superb although did look slightly flat next time. I’d still say he’s a rock solid bet for the Ryanair though. Food shout.

Despite the official ratings, BDD was taking Roksana apart when they met at the festival this year and I simply couldn’t bet Roksana against her at all. In a match, what price would they be. 1/6 vs 9/2? Something like that.

 

[Hurricane fly]

Appreciate the info but Band of Outlaws is going to be a 5 year old who just lost to Thomas Hobson - admittedly race fit - and got battered at Aintree.
I think he’s a handicapper this year and maybe something next year

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Appreciate the info but Band of Outlaws is going to be a 5 year old who just lost to Thomas Hobson - admittedly race fit - and got battered at Aintree.
I think he’s a handicapper this year and maybe something next year

Agree with BOO post-Festival form, but would add that many horses lose form post-Festival, and I don’t normally take Aintree form (c/w Cheltenham form) as robust when assessing the next Festival.

This months as this months Yankee is focussed on Festival form I looked through all 28 results, and gathered info to mention that all five horses were above average performers in their races. With a 40/1 shot and a 50/1 shot in the five there will be a lot of doubt as to whether they are good enough. What they all have is very strong comparative ratings from their Festival runs this year, and age on their side to give them chance to produce it again, if not improve on it.

It’s nformation for the melting pot for the forum to debate, and more importantly to put up alternative selections.

On BOO we will no more next week after the Galway Hurdle. I have never dismissed a Champion Hurdle horse on age, that view enabled me to collect on Espoir D’Allen at 25/1 this year.

 

[archie]

I think that the only issue I have is that RPR is your chosen measure of quality as it's generally considered to run a poor third to OR and Timeform. However, all three are just subjective expert opinion so everyone is free to use them as they wish. Indeed, using RPRs Shanning would be looking good for the Galway Hurdle so I'm quite happy in that circumstance.:very_drunk:

Absolutely right to be looking at horses that improve through the season to peak at Cheltenham and sort of forgivable for a falling off after but it has to be said that A Plus Tard was very disappointing at Punchestown. Hopefully he'll be back on song in the Clonmel Oil or Durkan but he's currently rated below the likes of Cadmium, Ballyoisin and Duc Des Genievres and I wouldn't see him as particular value at the moment.

The Close Bros was A Plus Tard's best RPR by some way and I'd want to see him repeat or better it before trusting it as none of the placed horses came out and ran to the same standard. The same goes for the Fred Winter and Band Of Outlaws.

To be fair, looking this early you'd probably be able to say the same about most of this year's winners and the argument is logically sound. It's probably just my natural aversion to backing anything this early that makes me look at the downside.

Like all rating systems, RPR depends on which horse you use as your base measure. OR is the same which is why winners of some big races like the King George and the Triumph have been consistently over-rated. But that's another story....

 

[Kevloaf]

In looking at the 2019 Festival I can advise that the following all gained wins that were rated well against other winners over the last ten years.

...
I think these horses could be useful in any 2020 Festival discussions.

Absolutely :encouragement: - my two penneth today...

ROKSANA Mares Hurdle 8/1 - Maybe overlooked as BDD fell at last but Roksana’s rating of 150 was decent c/w prior years (152, 150, 146, 149, 147, 148, 140). She then improved to an RPR of 156 in the Aintree Hurdle, which is the same rating given to BDD for her Chelters fall.

I personally wouldn't give merit to an RPR at Aintree being equal to Cheltenham (in terms of the Festival next year). THe higher rating elsewhere may be credited to the fact she was running elsewhere... I don't see the improvement coming for Roksana myself - she is a single figure price now, but I'd guess she'd be an each way play on the day of the race, so no interest ante post at her price for me.

She's definitely the kind of horse I'd want to have a poor start to the season, and get forgotten about before coming a 'sexy/sneaky' type of tip in the build up to the festival again. (Wishful thinking)

A PLUS TARD Ryanair Chase 20/1 - absolutely took apart the Close Brothers with an RPR of 165 for his 16 length win. Prior winners had put up ratings of 147, 149, 152, 148, 147, 154, 157, 146, 152. A decent price at 20s given Defi Du Seuil put up an RPR of 164 to win the JLT and is 8/1 fav for the Ryanair.

A horse that'll divide opinion for good reason. Right now I'm going to be a knocker, beliving that the Close Brothers win was too good to be taken literally. A case of me not beliving what I've seen (Just like Cyrname) - May well be proved wrong again as with that horse, but playing the numbers game, it seems like a huge anomoly and although 20/1 is fair... I am not in a rush right now. The gap between novice handicap and open company grade 1 is surely too big?

BAND OF OUTLAWS 40/1 Champion Hurdle - BOO’s RPR of 147 in winning the Fred Winter was above any other winner in the last ten years (135, 137, 137, 1330, 130, 140, 133, 121, 146). Runs in the Galway Hurdle, 6/1 fav, next week and a win could propel him into a plan for a Champion Hurdle campaign given his performance at the track last March.

It could... and even if he doesn't win he could still have a Champion Hurdle campaign... Joseph certainly doesn't play things too cautiously in terms of grade 1 targets. He'll take his chance. I'll very rarely knock a 40/1 poke, he isn't in my plans at the moment, and the fact more 5yo's have won a CH than 9yo's over recent years means he may be under estimated - but I'm happy to take a watching brief at this early stage, prior to him "winning" the Galway Hurdle.

SHANTOU FLYER 16/1 Foxhunters - 2nd in the race this year, ridden by his owner. His rating of 149 would have been good enough to win the previous seven years Foxhunters (141, 145, 135, 148, 131, 148, 148). He is 9 which is younger than any of the last five winners and could be back for another shot next year. He won the Plate in 2017 and was 2nd in the Ultimata in 2018. His Cheltenham runs away from the Festival are also strong.

Fair price - made the case for Hazel Hill elsewhere a few weeks ago at 10/1 but can definitely see me having both of these backed at their prices.

EARLY DOORS 50/1 Stayers Hurdle - put up an RPR of 156 when winning the Martin Pipe from Dallas Des Pictons. Prior winners have produced some top performers in the future but none got as big a rating as Early Doors. Ratings were 153, 145, 146, 147 (Killultagh Vic), 153 (Don Poli,) 154, 147, 143 (Sir Des Champs), 146. ED was 3rd in the race in 2018 so does love the track. Well worth a pop at the Stayers Hurdle even if form on flatter tracks mid-season in slower run races hasn’t led to victories.

Like this one too, adds to the case jono made.
WIll probably back this in the coming days.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Update: EARLY DOORS is entered in a Beginners Chase at Galway next Thursday.