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July Forum Yankee

he wouldn't be 5-1 if it was a certain target.
I think it may turn out that the price is bigger at some stage in the season for one reason or another, but there's a decent chance it goes the other way also. Think the same could be said of hazel hill, although less likely to drop in price I'd imagine.
 
Here’s my opinion on Altior at 5/1...

I’d be absolutely up for him going in this months yankee as a past winners thread at that price. I think 5s is a touch big and he loves that hill.

I’m definitely up for him going in.
 
archie said:
:encouragement:
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It's the best bet in the world compared to 6-1 Kemboy for the Gold cup.:highly_amused

Reminds me of the idiots who never back odds on.
Value is value. No matter what month it is.
simple as that.
 
quevega said:
It's the best bet in the world compared to 6-1 Kemboy for the Gold cup.:highly_amused

Reminds me of the idiots who never back odds on.
Value is value. No matter what month it is.
simple as that.
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Bet for you...

35/1 for Cyrname King George / Altior QMCC double.

I know you're against Altior in the KG, so when he's defeated and they revert to the 2 mile race.... you can have 35/1?


Value is value - nobody will argue that.
It definitely matters what month it is..... if it was March 2020 and Altior was 5/1, that's better value than it is in July 2019. So it does matter what month it is.

I think you said yourself earlier you think Altior might be a bigger price at some point... which I won't go back and quote, but does lend itself to timings being more important than you're saying now too?
 
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Kevloaf said:
Bet for you...

35/1 for Cyrname King George / Altior QMCC double.

I know you're against Altior in the KG, so when he's defeated and they revert to the 2 mile race.... you can have 35/1?


Value is value - nobody will argue that.
It definitely matters what month it is..... if it was March 2020 and Altior was 5/1, that's better value than it is in July 2019. So it does matter what month it is.

I think you said yourself earlier you think Altior might be a bigger price at some point... which I won't go back and quote, but does lend itself to timings being more important than you're saying now too?
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At 7/2 vs 6/1. I'd bet on Cyrname as it stands. That doesn't mean I'm against Altior though as a potential winner.
There are many potential winners in most races and I'll bet on the ones that I believe the market has underestimated.

The only thing that matters in terms of the value is the value at the time you place the bet. As that's the only thing you can control. Unless you have a strong opinion on a likely future event that may change this. But even this is not within your control as the event may never happen.

Bit silly to state the value in March bit, as this is in the future. If it was March 2020 and Altior was 5-1, but had been defeated three times by a distance and was injured then 5-1 would not be value.

I think with any long term antepost bet, there are circumstances that mean the price may fluctuate, and in this case the most likely one is the King George outcome. Obviously he may drift if it is a positive one for Altior.
But that is the risk with any antepost bet. You win some and you lose some.

5-1 for a horse that is looking to make history and win for the fifth festival running and has the option on running in a race division he has dominated for three seasons and never gone off at odds against. Is IMO an underestimation of the chances of him turning up in the race and winning it.

It Is Value, on July 31st 2019.
 
Everyone has their own criteria when it come to value as it’s a very subjective subject, I’m in the camp that believes 5/1 is value even this far out as I beiieve the QM will be Alriors target, but others may/may not think differently.
No-one is right no-one is wrong.

Wasn’t Tiger Roll a similar price (6/1 7/1 ish) for the 2019 Cross Country in March 2018 ?
I think most of us though that was value and I hope all climbed in...
 
Istabraq said:
Everyone has their own criteria when it come to value as it’s a very subjective subject, I’m in the camp that believes 5/1 is value even this far out as I beiieve the QM will be Alriors target, but others may/may not think differently.
No-one is right no-one is wrong.

Wasn’t Tiger Roll a similar price (6/1 7/1 ish) for the 2019 Cross Country in March 2018 ?
I think most of us though that was value and I hope all climbed in...
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That was a bigger price, for a certain target, in a weaker event.

Altior isn't going to shorten before he gets declared for a race.... so while I don't think 5/1 is a price I'll jump on now... before he next runs we might have more information about the plans... they could well rule out a Gold Cup regardless of the KG result... and if that's the case I'll react accordingly.
 
Forum Yankee for July will be posted up tomorrow (Friday) evening.
 
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Based off this thread, it’s going to be:
- Klassical Dream (Champion Hurdle)
- Delta Work (Gold Cup)
- Benie Des Dieux (Mares)
- Altior (Champion Chase)


Hard one this month. Was split on the last selection between Delta Work and Carefully Selected with good arguments made for both. Went with DW as the target is clearer.

I do want to get CS in a yankee but I’m thinking he’s still going to be a tasty price even after a month or two of the season starting.
 
Middle_Of_March said:
Based off this thread, it’s going to be:
- Klassical Dream (Champion Hurdle)
- Delta Work (Gold Cup)
- Benie Des Dieux (Mares)
- Altior (Champion Chase)



Hard one this month. Was split on the last selection between Delta Work and Carefully Selected with good arguments made for both. Went with DW as the target is clearer.

I do want to get CS in a yankee but I’m thinking he’s still going to be a tasty price even after a month or two of the season starting.
Click to expand...


Best odds 1889/1 with William Hill for this
 
For the August Forum Yankee maybe we could take heed of Billymags visit to Million In Mind and look at Fusil Raffles (Champion Hurdle), The Glancing Queen (Mares Novice Hurdle) as a starting point.
 
As there was a Willie yankee in May, maybe a Nicky or Gordon yankee might work. There's every chance that the three of them will have more than half of the winners next March so you're starting with the odds in your favour.
 
archie said:
As there was a Willie yankee in May, maybe a Nicky or Gordon yankee might work. There's every chance that the three of them will have more than half of the winners next March so you're starting with the odds in your favour.
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:encouragement: Good idea, I see MoM agrees.


Slightly off topic, will 'losing' Ruby affect Willie's domination? (Obviously no is the correct answer) but it isn't a positive!
 
Kevloaf said:
:encouragement: Good idea, I see MoM agrees.


Slightly off topic, will 'losing' Ruby affect Willie's domination? (Obviously no is the correct answer) but it isn't a positive!
Click to expand...

I think he only had 1 winner this year and 2 last year which would be fewer than Paul T.
 
archie said:
I think he only had 1 winner this year and 2 last year which would be fewer than Paul T.
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Slightly skewed as he got injured didn't he.

He was better than anyone around Cheltenham.
 
I think using Billymag’s visits to trainers we can look at some of the horses that got favourable mentions whatever stable they are in and work out from their, if it’s possible to identify Festival targets at this point.
 
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