Arkle 2019

[archie]

The Turftrax map issued today is essentially unchanged from the last two days.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Meant to absolutely piss down on the Tuesday currently!

Source: BBC Weather.

I need to check others.

 

[westcountry1]

You mean they might be Waiting Patiently?

That's actually quite funny I'm just relating the discussion between connections...personally I think the ground would have to be desperate for him not to run. I mean Dave is 82 and would love him to run...I would let him run if he were mine...but then I would have taken JP's van load of cash that was offered a few day's ago!

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Thanks for the info WC1.

 

[kinloch brae]

Very relevant comment from meeting tonight stating Henrietta Knight thinks the distance is too short for Glen Forsa. You probably can't get much closer to the horse.

Seems to confirm this is purely about the owner.

 

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Very relevant comment from meeting tonight stating Henrietta Knight thinks the distance is too short for Glen Forsa. You probably can't get much closer to the horse.

Seems to confirm this is purely about the owner.

Can’t get any closer than the trainer!

 

[Gibbo82]

One for Rosie @ Sandown boosts Glen Forsa form

 

[Kevloaf]

In a weak renewal, will it pay to just back the "best" horse? and isn't Lalor just the clear
"best horse in the race"

Grade 2 bumper winner (Aintree festival)
Grade 1 novice hurdle winner (Aintree festival)
Grade 2 novice chase winner (Course and distance)


Nothing else has that kind of 'back-class' for want of a better phrase. I'm seeing him getting crabbed more and more and ultimately, I fancied him before all the good horses came out, and he's the only good'un left.


I know others look better chasers and they've improved on thier bumper/hurdles form - I know that, but it's an angle that I haven't heard mentioned in his defense yet.

 

[Gilly]

In a weak renewal, will it pay to just back the "best" horse? and isn't Lalor just the clear
"best horse in the race"

Grade 2 bumper winner (Aintree festival)
Grade 1 novice hurdle winner (Aintree festival)
Grade 2 novice chase winner (Course and distance)


Nothing else has that kind of 'back-class' for want of a better phrase. I'm seeing him getting crabbed more and more and ultimately, I fancied him before all the good horses came out, and he's the only good'un left.


I know others look better chasers and they've improved on thier bumper/hurdles form - I know that, but it's an angle that I haven't heard mentioned in his defense yet.

I agree with you.

Frank Hickey made an interesting point the other day that he ran 3 weeks after that amazing performance in Cheltenham in November. Hickey suggested that was too quick and the average horse should be given 6 weeks to recover after a race.

With Defi being fave in the JLT, you'd have to say it's the best piece of form going into this race

 

[ComplyOrDie]

In a weak renewal, will it pay to just back the "best" horse? and isn't Lalor just the clear
"best horse in the race"

Grade 2 bumper winner (Aintree festival)
Grade 1 novice hurdle winner (Aintree festival)
Grade 2 novice chase winner (Course and distance)


Nothing else has that kind of 'back-class' for want of a better phrase. I'm seeing him getting crabbed more and more and ultimately, I fancied him before all the good horses came out, and he's the only good'un left.


I know others look better chasers and they've improved on thier bumper/hurdles form - I know that, but it's an angle that I haven't heard mentioned in his defense yet.

Plenty of rain forecast and as per Westcountry1's post the horse may not even turn up and go straight to Aintree.

It's already an incredibly poor Arkle, so if he pulls out it has to go down as one of the worst in history, with regards to quality runners, obviously it may still turn out to be a great race on the day.

 

[Big Chac]

In a weak renewal, will it pay to just back the "best" horse? and isn't Lalor just the clear
"best horse in the race"

Grade 2 bumper winner (Aintree festival)
Grade 1 novice hurdle winner (Aintree festival)
Grade 2 novice chase winner (Course and distance)


Nothing else has that kind of 'back-class' for want of a better phrase. I'm seeing him getting crabbed more and more and ultimately, I fancied him before all the good horses came out, and he's the only good'un left.


I know others look better chasers and they've improved on thier bumper/hurdles form - I know that, but it's an angle that I haven't heard mentioned in his defense yet.

Surely he is too short though, his last performance was blamed on the ground and it looks as though its going to be pretty soft on the Tuesday. If he runs like that, and there's a chance he will due to the ground, then he hasn't got a chance.
Also if the ground wasnt the problem last time then you've got to hope he doesn't run as bad again for an unknown reason.
With those question marks is 4/1 a decent price....I think its an awful price.

Now CE isn't running, iv had a little dabble on hardline at small stakes just for the e/w value. I have no strong opinion other than to leave this race alone.

 

[Kevloaf]

Surely he is too short though, his last performance was blamed on the ground and it looks as though its going to be pretty soft on the Tuesday. If he runs like that, and there's a chance he will due to the ground, then he hasn't got a chance.
Also if the ground wasnt the problem last time then you've got to hope he doesn't run as bad again for an unknown reason.
With those question marks is 4/1 a decent price....I think its an awful price.

Now CE isn't running, iv had a little dabble on hardline at small stakes just for the e/w value. I have no strong opinion other than to leave this race alone.

I dunno, is 4/1 too short about the best horse in the race, as the only course and distance winner too?


I don't think it was ground, I think he was backed up too quickly.



I'm already invested at 33/1 but just talking about most likely winners, I think he should be fav.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I dunno, is 4/1 too short about the best horse in the race, as the only course and distance winner too?


I don't think it was ground, I think he was backed up too quickly.



I'm already invested at 33/1 but just talking about most likely winners, I think he should be fav.

Should be fav, but this weather/going is of concern.

 

[Kevloaf]

Should be fav, but this weather/going is of concern.

He did win a grade 1 on soft ground... so I'm not really worrying about the ground.

Backed up too quickly makes more sense as an excuse than the ground, as a G1 winner?

 

[ComplyOrDie]

He did win a grade 1 on soft ground... so I'm not really worrying about the ground.

Backed up too quickly makes more sense as an excuse than the ground, as a G1 winner?

More worried about connections withdrawing it tbh.

 

[Middle_Of_March]

After Le Richebourg and CE were taken out, I didn’t expect to have a decent bet on this race.

But Glen Forsa is a cracking bet imo.

 

[Kevloaf]

More worried about connections withdrawing it tbh.

I'd say there is absolutely no chance of that.


It would need to be heavy to justofy that decision?

A grade 1 winner on soft, absolute no way.


Plus if I was betting now it's not an issue as everyone is NRNB and this time tomorrow it's day of race markets anyway I assume?



Won't help my 33/1 though haha

 

[darlojim]

After Le Richebourg and CE were taken out, I didn’t expect to have a decent bet on this race.

But Glen Forsa is a cracking bet imo.

I'm with you on this one, just can't see why people are saying he should be stepped up? Absolutely smashed Kalashnikov over 2m on soft so why should Cheltenham over 2 be a worry? Only worry would be whether Burke tries to make all on him and is then forced to go too fast too soon like SC and PM did last year.

 

[kinloch brae]

I notice Paloma Blue is on the drift despite De Bromhead saying if it is soft (which it obviously will be) he goes for the Arkle. Why would you suddenly experiment with a new trip? The Arkle is sure to be a stamina test.

There was also talk at the Sandown preview of Monalee switching to the Gold Cup. Did anyone think he wanted an extra two furlongs in last year's RSA?

You really do have to wonder. Both of these decisions should be straightforward.

 

[delsie777]

I notice Paloma Blue is on the drift despite De Bromhead saying if it is soft (which it obviously will be) he goes for the Arkle. Why would you suddenly experiment with a new trip? The Arkle is sure to be a stamina test.

There was also talk at the Sandown preview of Monalee switching to the Gold Cup. Did anyone think he wanted an extra two furlongs in last year's RSA?

You really do have to wonder. Both of these decisions should be straightforward.

I heard that Honeysuckle is being aimed at the Kings Stand...